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MTA bus future (part 1): buy less hybrid$ / more on: Diesel & CNG; WHY?

Posted by gOlD_12tH on Sun Jul 11 02:18:40 2010

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Since no one posted about the MTA board meeting back in May 2010, there is bunch of important information in the future of MTA buying buses. I will divide into parts focusing on the subject.

The MTA Bus Operations presented in the MTA CPOC board meeting in May. In the presentation, it discusses the study on the current fleet and analyzed future bus purchases. The cost benefit analysis on the current fleet was conducted back in January 2010. You can thank Jay Walder for that suggestion in which he ordered back in November 2009 during the last bus presentation.

Currently right now, MTA is using clean diesel, CNG, electric hybrid with clean diesel fuel and turbine hybrid powered on many different buses. But in the future, MTA will buy less electric hybrids, more on clean diesels and CNG buses.

The study recommends buy more regular clean ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) then diesel electric hybrid buses.

REASON WHY?
– MUCH CHEAPER then diesel electric hybrid bus ($175,000+ price difference per bus); plus you do not need to change/replace batteries, for lead acid is 2 to 3 years and lithium-ion is about 6 years, added weight with the hybrid components, higher maintenance cost. What wonderful savings!!!!
– Fuel usage difference:
A. above 8 mph, regular clean diesel bus runs better (IT PAYS TO OPERATE)
B. lower 8 mph, use hybrid; (better fuel economy savings and it doesn’t tax the battery system that often)
– Regular clean diesel fuel is currently less expensive.
– Fuel economy is ROUGHLY THE SIMILAR in high mileage and high speed routes
– Electric hybrids performed much better in traffic congestion areas and gains fuel efficiency.
– CO2 emissions function as fuel economy: More fuel you use, the more CO2 emissions they are: Clean diesel buses have virtually the same emissions profiles as electric hybrids on New York City roads. Electric hybrids are much effective at or below 5.5 mph. Clean diesel is the better alternative at above average speed of 8 mph.

WHY continue buy CNG buses?
– MTA has invested lots of money into CNG infrastructure facilities. It will be such a waste to abandoned it (like TTC or NJ Transit {about to pull the plug}).
– CNG technology has been improving over the course in lifetime.
– CNG prices are currently LOW in years.
– It is CHEAPER to operate a CNG bus then a regular clean diesel bus.
– Long Island Bus’ 2008-2009 Orion VII Next Generation low floor (CNG fuel) has 30%+ improves fuel economy then the old 1996-1998 Orion V standard floor (CNG fuel) with Cummins L10G engine. Plus it has the highest MDBF rating then the older buses.

To sum up, MTA is not going to purchase mass quantity of diesel electric hybrid buses like the previous MTA bitch’ Orion VII bus orders, they will still purchase but in small quantities like 100 to 200 buses in each contract RFP. The otherside, CNG purchases increase and the return of clean diesel bus orders in 40 foot bus category in the future.

Note that after 2015, the fuel diversity in the entire MTA bus fleet of clean diesel is decreasing by 50% in the 10 year period, while hybrids still increase dramatically which make the majority of the whole, so does CNG increase a little bit -- still a minority.


The next topic (Next new post separated from this thread), part 2 will be discussing some interesting figures on bus expectancy life cost and numbers....

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