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Re: B44 Progress Report Released

Posted by R30A on Thu Jul 21 21:09:36 2016, in response to Re: B44 Progress Report Released, posted by R30A on Thu Jul 21 20:45:10 2016.

"There are two possible explanations for this. One is that riders have found the SBS to be so superior to the local service that they are flocking to it."
Yup.

"The other is that the local service has deteriorated so much that they would rather put up with walking the extra distance to and from the SBS and perhaps even an extra transfer, justto not have to deal with the local."
Certainly possible, but still shows the B44 SBS as a success.

"Since the MTA provides no further data, we do not know which reason is correct, but there is no evidence toassume that SBS ridership rose because riders believe they are getting improved service, other than the MTA's very questionable passenger satisfaction survey."
LOL The survey you previously said was never taken in your intro.
But it does not matter, because both are the same thing in reality. And they show that B44 SBS is a success, as it is taking riders from the B44 local at a greater rate than the B44 Limited did.

"Additionally, a portionof the 10 percent increase in SBS ridership has nothing to do with SBS being superior to local or Limited service."
Yup. Presumably at least 6%.

"Since the SBS operates on Rogers Avenue instead of New York Avenue,some northbound B49 passengers between Farragut Road and St JohnsPlace will now choose the B44 SBS justbecause it arrives prior to the B49 and they can take either bus."
Yup.

"The B49 has shown a 10.6 percent decline in service since 2013.When the B44 and the B49 are considered as a group, total annual ridership for the two routes in 2013 was 16,490,548. In 2015, it was 15,783,729. Therefore.ridership on these now linked routes is down 4.3 percent while the borough average was only down 3.5 percent within this time period."
Yeah, the B44SBS is clearly successful enough that some B49 riders are now taking it. Again, SUCCESS IS NOT A SIGN OF FAILURE.

"This is significant because the MTA is claiming that not only has the B44 SBS benefitted from exclusive bus lanes, but the B49 has benefitted as well. So why is ridership down on that route as well since inception of the bus lanes?"
Because they are riding the B44. Ridership is not the sole measure of success. If a change results in Route A becoming 10 minutes faster and Route B becoming 6 minutes faster, Route B is still improved, even if it loses ridership to Route A.

Anotherquestion not addressed in this progress report.B44 Ridership DifferencesThe net increase in B44 ridership when comparing 2015 to 2014 is six percent when the local is also taken into consideration. Whatthe MTA is not showing in theirProgressReport is that the decline in B44 service during 2014, its first full year of operation, was eightpercent. (All they say isthat ridership declined during the first year.) So the net decrease in B44 ridership since 2013 is twopercent. Therefore, for the B44 as well as the M15, the MTA failed to stem the decline in bus ridership with the institution of SBS, its major goal.So if MTA proponents are correct in that only the first year results matter (a decline of 8 percent in B44 ridership), why should it even matter that ridership on the SBS portion of the route rose by 10 percent during the second year? That should be irrelevant. If they are incorrect, and results do matter after the first year, it is significant that M15 ridership is now 9.4 percent lower than before SBS was instituted on that route making the M15 not the success the MTA claims it is. In any evaluations of new service, it is essential that you use consistent methodology. You cannot cherry pick your data to yield predetermined conclusions of success as the MTA and DOT are doing.Bus Travel TimesNow let us examine the MTA's second statistic they areusing to prove that the B44 SBS is successful. That is that bus travel times decreased by between 15 and 31 percent on the SBS. We have to accept that at face value since we aren't privy to the methodology the MTA used toarrive at thatconclusion. However, although that appears to be a winfor the MTA because it means lowerlabor costs, the MTA doesn’t weigh those savings against the significant enforcement costs to ensure passengers are pre-paying their fares. So we do not know if there really is a saving in labor costs or if it is anywhere close to at least 15 percent.

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