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Re: B44 Progress Report Released

Posted by R30A on Thu Jul 21 21:22:21 2016, in response to Re: B44 Progress Report Released, posted by R30A on Thu Jul 21 21:09:36 2016.

Apologies. Accidentally hit Post before I finished.
Page 3 continued"
"Anotherquestion not addressed in this progress report.B44 Ridership DifferencesThe net increase in B44 ridership when comparing 2015 to 2014 is six percent when the local is also taken into consideration."
But the local has nothing to do with whether the SBS is a success or not. If the local dropped to zero, that would show the SBS is a tremendous success!
"Whatthe MTA is not showing in theirProgressReport is that the decline in B44 service during 2014, its first full year of operation, was eightpercent."
Actually they do show that. They showed a rolling ridership total which shows that ridership was precipitously dropping until shortly after SBS was implemented, and after implementation it slowly started to rise again.

"(All they say isthat ridership declined during the first year.)"
Yes, because it did, but even with the decline, you could see in the ridership trends that it was a successful change.

"So the net decrease in B44 ridership since 2013 is twopercent."
That is clearly a fallacious line of reasoning if you look at the month by month trend in ridership.

"Therefore, for the B44 as well as the M15, the MTA failed to stem the decline in bus ridership with the institution of SBS, its major goal."
That is not the major goal of SBS, regardless of how often you repeat it.

"So if MTA proponents are correct in that only the first year results matter (a decline of 8 percent in B44 ridership), why should it even matter that ridership on the SBS portion of the route rose by 10 percent during the second year? That should be irrelevant."
Because the second year total is what actually shows you the trend in the first year. It is a tool to show how the first year was actually a success.

"If they are incorrect, and results do matter after the first year, it is significant that M15 ridership is now 9.4 percent lower than before SBS was instituted on that route making the M15 not the success the MTA claims it is."
Nah. Second year does not really matter in either case.

"In any evaluations of new service, it is essential that you use consistent methodology."
No, it really isn't. This is not meant to be a scientific evaluation. It is meant to be political fluff to make the community understand what is happening.

"You cannot cherry pick your data to yield predetermined conclusions of success as the MTA and DOT are doing."
You certainly can.

"Bus Travel TimesNow let us examine the MTA's second statistic they areusing to prove that the B44 SBS is successful. That is that bus travel times decreased by between 15 and 31 percent on the SBS."
That is a pretty damn amazing success right there!

"We have to accept that at face value since we aren't privy to the methodology the MTA used toarrive at thatconclusion."
Yes, we do. However it is easily believed by anyone who ACTUALLY RIDES these services.

"However, although that appears to be a winfor the MTA because it means lowerlabor costs, the MTA doesn’t weigh those savings against the significant enforcement costs to ensure passengers are pre-paying their fares. So we do not know if there really is a saving in labor costs or if it is anywhere close to at least 15 percent. "
Really doesn't matter from a rider perspective. Perhaps the eagle teams run in the black?

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