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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Sun Mar 9 00:01:33 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Sat Mar 8 22:38:40 2008.

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There's a flaw in your graph.

In November 2003, the last complete month of the shuttle bus, Howard Beach is at 116,566 passengers:
Nov 2003:


In December 2003, when Airtrain opened, it must have opened mid month, and you only used the Howard Beach stats from half a month. Unfortunately, the month was broken up, and once AirTrain began, they COMBINED the Airtrain for Howard Beach and Jamaica, and for Dec 2003 had just the bus HB people too, so we don't know how many people boarded at Howard Beach on AirTrain after AirTrain opened. the figure you used was 59,356 for your graph, but part of the 82, 293 AirTrain figures also include Howard Beach. We don't know how many though, but either way the graph is too low:
Dec 2003, AirTrain opens:


Then we have Jan 2003, and they also combined Howard Beach and jamaica ridership on Airtrain, as well as Feb 2004:
Jan 2004: 147,145 Jamaica/Howard Beach combined:


Then, finally in february 2004, they finally broke it up to AIrTrain HB, and AirTrain Jamaica, and already by March Howard Beach was only about 20,000 short of it's pre airtrain levels....and that of course is considering the loss of many of it's passengers to Jamaica:
Feb 2004: 77,907 Howard Beach


March 2004: 91,547 Howard Beach


Then let's cut over to one year after AirTrain, Dec 2004:
Dec 2004: 116,347 Howard Beach


Finally, we come to the last available stats, three years after airtrain in Nov 2006:
Nov 2006: 120,430 Howard Beach, and 226,769 Jamaica:


In those three years, flights increased by about 10,000, so yes, that of course has more people arriving. However, Howard Beach carried 120,430 passengers on it's airtrain, and Jamaica a whopping 226,769 passengers. REMEMBER, that before Jamaica, Howard beach was the ONLY choice using the subway. So a good portion of Jamaica's passengers would be using Howard Beach, as before had jamaica not existed, it must always be remembered that pre-Airtrain, subway people had no choice but to use Howard Beach and the A Train. Now they also can use the E Train (and J to a lesser extent) and jamaica, also skewing the stats away from Howard Beach....and Howard Beach is STILL higher.
Percentage-wise it can also be looked at, but remember that it automatically will be lower for Howard Beach as Jamaica increases the options and the size of the pie, so that automatically will take percentage of arriving/departing passengers away from Howard Beach, as it's a new option not there before, yet now grabbing passengers.

That's pretty impressive.

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