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| Re: Second Av Subway Ridership Growing Rapidly (1426175) | |||
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Re: Second Av Subway Ridership Growing Rapidly |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Feb 1 15:49:16 2017, in response to Second Av Subway Ridership Growing Rapidly, posted by italianstallion on Wed Feb 1 11:43:55 2017. From: Stephen BaumanTo: steve@localhost Subject: subchat post Date: Wed, 1 Feb 2017 14:34:55 -0500 X-Mailer: Claws Mail 3.14.1 (GTK+ 2.24.31; x86_64-redhat-linux-gnu) The turnstile counts for Jan 27th won't be available on the MTA website until this Saturday. I'll record the counts and post them as usual. The last date was the 26th. The counts for the 3 stops were: 72 ST-2 AVE (Q): 01/26/2017,,,,86 ST-2 AVE (Q): 01/26/2017,,,,96 ST-2 AVE (Q): 01/26/2017,,,,3 stops,, Time Range,Entries,Exits,Total,Time Range,Entries,Exits,Total,Time Range,Entries,Exits,Total,entries,exits,Total 00:00:00-04:00:00,203,171,374,00:00:00-04:00:00,156,309,465,00:00:00-04:00:00,110,346,456,469,826,1295 04:00:00-08:00:00,1698,3043,4741,04:00:00-08:00:00,2373,985,3358,04:00:00-08:00:00,1802,1108,2910,5873,5136,11009 08:00:00-12:00:00,6894,7620,14514,08:00:00-12:00:00,9215,2718,11933,08:00:00-12:00:00,5389,2357,7746,21498,12695,34193 12:00:00-16:00:00,5460,3957,9417,12:00:00-16:00:00,4042,3431,7473,12:00:00-16:00:00,3232,2436,5668,12734,9824,22558 16:00:00-20:00:00,9935,6607,16542,16:00:00-20:00:00,5321,7147,12468,16:00:00-20:00:00,3737,4788,8525,18993,18542,37535 20:00:00-00:00:00,2485,2592,5077,20:00:00-00:00:00,2035,3634,5669,20:00:00-00:00:00,1044,2328,3372,5564,8554,14118 Total,26675,23990,50665,Total,23142,18224,41366,Total,15314,13363,28677,65131,55577,120708 What's most important for the SAS $4B justification is its use during the peak period. There's still a lot of capacity during the off peak hours. It would be nice, if the MTA published hourly turnstile counts. However, I'll prorate the 4 hour figure by the number of scheduled Lex Ave Local trains per hour to get an approximation. Here's the spreadsheet analysis for estimated hourly entrances and its equivalent number of Lex Ave locals. Hr,Count,4Hr ,Hr Ratio,Est Ent,Trains 0,4,,0.286,134.0,0.1 1,4,,0.286,134.0,0.1 2,3,,0.214,100.5,0.1 3,3,14,0.214,100.5,0.1 4,3,,0.086,503.4,0.5 5,5,,0.143,839.0,0.8 6,11,,0.314,1,845.8,1.7 7,16,35,0.457,2,684.8,2.4 8,23,,0.329,7,063.6,6.4 9,16,,0.229,4,913.8,4.5 10,16,,0.229,4,913.8,4.5 11,15,70,0.214,4,606.7,4.2 12,15,,0.254,3,237.5,2.9 13,15,,0.254,3,237.5,2.9 14,15,,0.254,3,237.5,2.9 15,14,59,0.237,3,021.6,2.7 16,20,,0.294,5,586.2,5.1 17,20,,0.294,5,586.2,5.1 18,15,,0.221,4,189.6,3.8 19,13,68,0.191,3,631.0,3.3 20,12,,0.333,1,854.7,1.7 21,10,,0.278,1,545.6,1.4 22,8,,0.222,1,236.4,1.1 23,6,36,0.167,927.3,0.8 Let's assume that all the SAS entries would have used the downtown Lex. The same load levels could have been achieved with the addition of a max of 7 tph on the local track during the peak 8-9am hour. These extra trains could have been short turned at 3rd Ave-138th St. The running time between 3rd Ave-138th St and Brooklyn Bridge is 37 minutes or 75 minutes (1.25 hrs) for the round trip. The MTA's estimated per hour operating cost for a 10 car train is $2746.30, as per the 2015 NTD Report. The cost for a year's worth of the extra trains would be 250 x 7 x $2746.30 x 1.25 or $6 Million of additional operating costs. There are 11 Q's operating between 57th St-7th Ave and 96th St-2nd Ave between 8 and 9 am. The running time is 7.5 minutes or 15 minutes (0.25 hrs) for the round trip. The yearly operating cost for this service is: 250 x 11 x $2746.30 x .25 or $1.9 Million of additional operating cost. The annual operating cost savings for the SAS is $4.1 Million for a capital investment of $4 Billion. It would take approximately a millennium to pay for this investment, assuming a zero interest rate. |
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