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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Jan 30 12:34:45 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by Fred G on Sun Jan 30 11:54:02 2011.

You so silly! :)

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 12:38:10 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Jan 30 11:39:36 2011.

Britain was a HELL OF a lot more civilized than Islamists.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Fred G on Sun Jan 30 12:54:30 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Jan 30 12:34:45 2011.

Haha, you know it.

your pal,
Fred

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jan 30 13:01:06 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by AlM on Sun Jan 30 11:24:00 2011.

So Ghandi only won India's independence in 1947 instead of 1967, which is good, but nonviolent resistance only works against a democratic state where the resisters may inspire the sympathies of voters. It does not work in overthrowing a nondemocratic state with no compunction against using brutal violence against an unarmed group.*

*I'm willing to backtrack on this given examples.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!


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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jan 30 13:02:25 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 12:38:10 2011.

Exactly. Britain had voters who did not want to see their forces resort to further savagery. Islamists are savages by definition.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 13:07:19 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jan 30 13:02:25 2011.

tell that to Cloudy ASSpect

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Fred G on Sun Jan 30 13:08:45 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 13:07:19 2011.

Now now, there's no need for name calling.

your pal,
Fred

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jan 30 13:14:06 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Jan 29 09:03:55 2011.

No response from the ultra-left peacenik.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Jan 30 13:16:27 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Jan 29 09:03:55 2011.

You suggested that invading Canada and Mexico for their resources wouldn't be a bad thing.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 13:20:19 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sun Jan 30 13:16:27 2011.

Pigs made a statement to the effect that it is unfortunate that all of the petroleum we use doesn't come from Canada and Mexico since they are civilized countries and don't support Islamism.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jan 30 13:23:03 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 13:20:19 2011.

Of course the peacenik wants to read the post his way, because it's more convenient for him to be against "warmongers."

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 14:31:53 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 13:07:19 2011.

I shut you up earlier and I'll shut you up again, Islamists are not leading the revolution currently, and there is no proof that Islamists are trying to capitalize on the situation.

Also with your stupid statement you're basically saying that all Muslims are Islamist and therefore are savages.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 14:38:50 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 14:31:53 2011.

naive stupidity like yours is why we had an effective confrontational leader (Hillary Clinton) replaced by an ineffective milquetoast (BO) who gave the GOP enough room to start the Tea Party. you'll be looking like an idiot in 6 months if that rebellion isn't crushed, annihilated, wiped out. Body count is inconsequential, deniability is.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 14:43:39 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 14:38:50 2011.

You have 0 clue about how the real world works Cinderella. Go back into your rabbit hole, your latest statement proves you have no clue about anything.

The United States and its leaders both GOP and Demcratic are starting to realize this is a chance to help mold a true democracy in the middle east. You can be the US will ensure that ElBaradei will be a front runner or future leader of Egypt.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 14:46:56 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 14:43:39 2011.

BO's naive idealism is going to hand Egypt over to the GOP/Big Oil/ Al Qaeda triad for free. There will NEVER be any middle eastern democracy other than Israel as long as the majority religion is Islam.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 14:49:59 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 14:46:56 2011.

The country of Indonesia says you're wrong...

once again you don't know what you're talking about

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by AlM on Sun Jan 30 15:06:19 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jan 30 13:01:06 2011.

Agreed. Truly repressive regimes don't go out easily.

They can go broke like the Soviet Union, combined with a leader like Gorbachev realizing there's not point going on along the same path.

They can be defeated in a war.

They can lose the confidence of some or all of the army, like Egypt.


On the other hand, there have been a few like Taiwan, South Korea, and Indonesia where they were fairly repressive, and yet gave up before they really had to. I don't really know why those worked.


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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by BMTLines on Sun Jan 30 15:12:26 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by AlM on Sun Jan 30 15:06:19 2011.

On the other hand, there have been a few like Taiwan, South Korea, and Indonesia where they were fairly repressive, and yet gave up before they really had to. I don't really know why those worked.

It is possible that the relative economic success or stability of those three countries may have had a lot to do with it


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Mars Attacks! (Re: Egypt Revolts!)

Posted by Mitch45 on Sun Jan 30 15:47:37 2011, in response to Egypt Revolts!, posted by JayZeeBMT on Fri Jan 28 16:01:55 2011.

Ever see it?

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Jan 30 16:06:08 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by AlM on Sun Jan 30 15:06:19 2011.

On the other hand, there have been a few like Taiwan, South Korea, and Indonesia where they were fairly repressive, and yet gave up before they really had to. I don't really know why those worked.

Our old friend demographics may hold the answer. Countries that have successfully transitioned from repressive governments to liberal democracies, including the ones you noted plus a couple others such as Chile and Brazil, all have had intermediate age structures at the time, meaning that the median age of the population was 25 or older. Countries with younger populations have a very poor record in this respect.

Egypt isn't quite there yet, but it's close, with a median age of 24. It's in much better condition than the Palestinian territories or Yemen, both of which have a median age of only 18 (Gaza is the lowest in the world at just 15). The recent uprising in Tunisia should turn out well, as Tunisia's median age is just under 30.

My blog



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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 16:24:09 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by Fred G on Sun Jan 30 08:48:06 2011.

Actually, in most places, the grid is already largely ready for it. New York City on the other hand is surrounded by NIMBY's who won't allow the power lines to be built to take our overflow of power down where it might be needed. THERE'S the problem ...

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 16:27:03 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 14:49:59 2011.

As Peter Rosa pointed out, Indonesia isn't poor like egypt and indonesia is more Asian than middle eastern.

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Re: Egypt Revolts, Hamas Helps Muslim Brotherhood

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 16:56:21 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts, Hamas Helps Muslim Brotherhood, posted by orange blossom special on Sun Jan 30 12:18:44 2011.

She joined the tea party and is too busy for this shit. :)

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Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition

Posted by OrionVIIdieselbus on Sun Jan 30 18:15:30 2011, in response to Egypt Revolts!, posted by JayZeeBMT on Fri Jan 28 16:01:55 2011.

I don't know if this news was posted already:

Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition

U.S. President Barack Obama on Sunday called for an orderly transition in Egypt to a government that reflects the aspirations of the Egyptian people. The president spoke by telephone with world and Middle East leaders about the situation in Egypt.

Mr. Obama received "multiple updates" throughout the day from his staff, and a White House statement said he was on the telephone with regional and global leaders.

He spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, British Prime Minister David Cameron, and with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

A White House statement said President Obama reiterated the focus he has placed on opposing violence, calling for restraint and supporting universal rights, including the right to peaceful assembly, association and speech.

It said the president also supported "an orderly transition" to a government that is responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people, and asked each of the leaders he spoke with for their assessment of the situation.

Turkish media quoted a statement from Mr. Erdogan's office as saying the two leaders agreed on "the necessity of meeting the legitimate and democratic rights of the people in the region" and "voiced the hope that the developments in the regional countries would not lead to deep and fundamental instabilities."

A White House aide said neither President Obama nor his national security adviser Tom Donilon had spoken with Egypt's ambassador in Washington, Sameh Shoukry.

The ambassador told ABC television's This Week program that his country is "going through a difficult time," but stressed that Egypt was already on a path to reform when the protests began.

In the street in front of the White House, demonstrators shouted anti-Mubarak slogans and called for his ouster. Among them were Mohammad Mosalem and Esam Youssef.

"Egyptian people are looking for freedom. We don't look for any crazy extremists to run the country," said Mosalem.

"All we need from the United States is just to stop supporting Mubarak. That's all. We don't need anything else. Just stop supporting Mubarak," said Youssef.

Monaem Mabrouki is from Tunisia, where an uprising recently forced the ouster of that country's president. He says President Obama has been taking the right steps where Egypt is concerned.

"He cares about the whole world. And he knows that a real democracy in the Arab world is security to the United States," he said.

There was no indication from the White House late Sunday of the extent to which President Obama's calls with world leaders included discussion of the role of Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei.

ElBaradei told protesters in Cairo that they "cannot go back" after starting the uprising against Mubarak, and in a series of television interviews Sunday said the United States should withdraw support for President Mubarak.



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Re: Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Jan 30 19:34:25 2011, in response to Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition, posted by OrionVIIdieselbus on Sun Jan 30 18:15:30 2011.

Orderly transition into what, now? If an Islamic Republic that's completely hostile to the USA "reflects the aspirations of the Egyptian people", will that be acceptable to the president?

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Re: Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition

Posted by bingbong on Sun Jan 30 19:46:52 2011, in response to Re: Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Jan 30 19:34:25 2011.

Clearly you know nothing about Egypt. They may be majority Islamic, but they place their 7000+ year old culture well above that. The only reason the Islamists have any sway with the Egyptian people is the crushing poverty and dearth of opportunity.

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Re: Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 19:52:39 2011, in response to Re: Obama: Egypt Needs Orderly Transition, posted by bingbong on Sun Jan 30 19:46:52 2011.

And if that gets fixed, they'll have to take their Islamic republic and move it to Pennsylvania. :)

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 20:04:01 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 16:27:03 2011.

Egypt has a chance to improve its economy, petroleum exporting, agriculture, tourism. It also has the canal! So there is a chance for the economy to greatly improve, as long as there is government in place that allows for more economic freedom, expansion, and a greater emphasis on education. Egypts leaders has his his time to try to improve it, but he has failed.

Also in positive news it seems ElBaradei has a broad spectrum of support, not only from the people in Egypt but even the Muslim Brotherhood has said they would support him if he leads the transition. ElBaradei is a noble peace prize recipient, got his PhD in international law in NYC at NYU and believes in Democracy.

If ElBaradei is the one who leads the Transition, then Egypt has a great chance for a great future.

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Re: Egypt Is Revolting!

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jan 30 20:09:15 2011, in response to Egypt Revolts!, posted by JayZeeBMT on Fri Jan 28 16:01:55 2011.

They're trying to overthrow their government too!

j/k

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 20:13:38 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 20:04:01 2011.

It seems that things are moving in a favorable direction. Hopefully this will continue.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 20:19:18 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 20:13:38 2011.

I do too, in all honesty a lot is riding on this, but this change had to be done. If a democracy can grow out of this, then it will be one of the biggest event in recent history and could start a tidal wave of change in the Middle East, with Saudia Arabia and even Iran potentially in the future becoming more democratic and its authoritarian or Islamist leaders overthrown.

If it goes the other way and becomes more Islamist we need to look at new energy sources so we can get the hell out of the Middle East.

Whats happening now supposedly is that the police purposely left much of the major cities to looters intentionally to justify a tough crackdown.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 20:43:16 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 20:19:18 2011.

There's also word that the police were involved in DOING many of the breakins and looting which is why the angle of "to justify." As to Saudi and Iran, look to Iran to be next as people watch what happens in Egypt. Saudi is less likely, at least at this time. Money makes a difference.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 20:47:16 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 20:43:16 2011.

True! Iran has to be worried, you can tell from the Silence in countries like Syria, and Iran. They're watching just as nervously as the US is.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 20:54:09 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 20:47:16 2011.

Even more so ... don't know anyone with contacts in Syria, but have several interested Iranians, and there's been plenty of protests over there the past few months with the same suspects - normal people who have had MORE than their fill of the deities running the country. If Egypt turns out well, definitely expect similar in Iran ... they're even more pissed off at their government than Egyptians.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 21:14:22 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 20:54:09 2011.

I know a few Syrians and its a tougher situation than in Iran... Syria is right on the cusp of becoming a democracy... and if Syria were to become Democratic... Iran would be in deep trouble. I think the key to making Syria an ally is to get a peace treaty on the Golan Heights with Israel. You gotta isolate Iran while the dominoes fall.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 21:46:20 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 21:14:22 2011.

Can't say I know all that much about Syria, so don't know what to think there. As for Iran, the PEOPLE consider themselves to be more European than Arab and the Shia have seriously overstepped their boundaries. And while some sort of internal civil war is highly unlikely, the influence of the Imams has really pissed off a good amount of the population. But more than anything else is the utter incompetence of the government. The sanctions over things that don't matter to the people is also a factor.

Strangely, most Iranians want their Shah back - not Pahlavi or his family, but the concept of a Royal government and the pomp of old Persian history. The Iranian people are proud and want to have their legacy back, and this is at cross-odds (?) with what they have now. And they still consider themselves more European than Arab. Interesting times ahead over there ... each day, more and more are willing to stand up to the Ayatollahs and say "no more."

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 22:08:40 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 21:46:20 2011.

I'd like to see the EU step in.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 22:30:51 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by RockParkMan on Sun Jan 30 22:08:40 2011.

There might be some justification, but I'm sure the Iranians would appreciate something a little more Persian. Heh. The Mullahs came in because at the time, they wanted our oil people and their protective regime out. Now they're not too happy with what they got - more of the same. Should be interesting where they go from here, but like Egypt, I'm sure they'd be just as happy if we all just minded our own P's and Q's and left them alone.

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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Jan 30 23:17:16 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts, Hamas Helps Muslim Brotherhood, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Jan 30 01:17:40 2011.

They have some interesting insights, especially the undercurrent of extreme Islamism in the military. Friedman gets it wrong though, when it comes to conceiving an Islamic Egypt being in competition with Iran rather than allied with it.

The Egypt Crisis in a Global Context: A Special Report

January 30, 2011 | 2253 GMT
By George Friedman


It is not at all clear what will happen in the Egyptian revolution. It is not a surprise that this is happening. Hosni Mubarak has been president for more than a quarter of a century, ever since the assassination of Anwar Sadat. He is old and has been ill. No one expected him to live much longer, and his apparent plan, which was that he would be replaced by his son, Gamal, was not going to happen even though it was a possibility a year ago. There was no one, save his closest business associates, who wanted to see Mubarak’s succession plans happen. As his father weakened, Gamal’s succession became even less likely. Mubarak’s failure to design a credible succession plan guaranteed instability on his death. Since everyone knew that there would be instability on his death, there were obviously those who saw little advantage to acting before he died. Who these people were and what they wanted is the issue.

Let’s begin by considering the regime. In 1952, Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser staged a military coup that displaced the Egyptian monarchy, civilian officers in the military, and British influence in Egypt. Nasser created a government based on military power as the major stabilizing and progressive force in Egypt. His revolution was secular and socialist. In short, it was a statist regime dominated by the military. On Nasser’s death, Anwar Sadat replaced him. On Sadat’s assassination, Hosni Mubarak replaced him. Both of these men came from the military as Nasser did. However their foreign policy might have differed from Nasser’s, the regime remained intact.

Mubarak’s Opponents

The demands for Mubarak’s resignation come from many quarters, including from members of the regime — particularly the military — who regard Mubarak’s unwillingness to permit them to dictate the succession as endangering the regime. For some of them, the demonstrations represent both a threat and opportunity. Obviously, the demonstrations might get out of hand and destroy the regime. On the other hand, the demonstrations might be enough to force Mubarak to resign, allow a replacement — for example, Omar Suleiman, the head of intelligence who Mubarak recently appointed vice president — and thereby save the regime. This is not to say that they fomented the demonstrations, but some must have seen the demonstrations as an opportunity.

This is particularly the case in the sense that the demonstrators are deeply divided among themselves and thus far do not appear to have been able to generate the type of mass movement that toppled the Shah of Iran’s regime in 1979. More important, the demonstrators are clearly united in opposing Mubarak as an individual, and to a large extent united in opposing the regime. Beyond that, there is a deep divide in the opposition.

Western media has read the uprising as a demand for Western-style liberal democracy. Many certainly are demanding that. What is not clear is that this is moving Egypt’s peasants, workers and merchant class to rise en masse. Their interests have far more to do with the state of the Egyptian economy than with the principles of liberal democracy. As in Iran in 2009, the democratic revolution, if focused on democrats, cannot triumph unless it generates broader support.

The other element in this uprising is the Muslim Brotherhood. The consensus of most observers is that the Muslim Brotherhood at this point is no longer a radical movement and is too weak to influence the revolution. This may be possible, but it is not obvious. The Muslim Brotherhood has many strands, many of which have been quiet under Mubarak’s repression. It is not clear who will emerge if Mubarak falls. It is certainly not clear that they are weaker than the democratic demonstrators. It is a mistake to confuse the Muslim Brotherhood’s caution with weakness. Another way to look at them is that they have bided their time and toned down their real views, waiting for the kind of moment provided by Mubarak’s succession. I would suspect that the Muslim Brotherhood has more potential influence among the Egyptian masses than the Western-oriented demonstrators or Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who is emerging as their leader.

There is, of course, the usual discussion of what U.S. President Barack Obama’s view is, or what the Europeans think, or what the Iranians are up to. All of them undoubtedly have thoughts and even plans. In my view, trying to shape the political dynamics of a country like Egypt from Iran or the United States is futile, and believing that what is happening in Egypt is the result of their conspiracies is nonsense. A lot of people care what is happening there, and a lot of people are saying all sorts of things and even spending money on spies and Twitter. Egypt’s regime can be influenced in this way, but a revolution really doesn’t depend on what the European Union or Tehran says.

There are four outcomes possible. First, the regime might survive. Mubarak might stabilize the situation, or more likely, another senior military official would replace him after a decent interval. Another possibility under the scenario of the regime’s survival is that there may be a coup of the colonels, as we discussed yesterday. A second possibility is that the demonstrators might force elections in which ElBaradei or someone like him could be elected and Egypt might overthrow the statist model built by Nasser and proceed on the path of democracy. The third possibility is that the demonstrators force elections, which the Muslim Brotherhood could win and move forward with an Islamist-oriented agenda. The fourth possibility is that Egypt will sink into political chaos. The most likely path to this would be elections that result in political gridlock in which a viable candidate cannot be elected. If I were forced to choose, I would bet on the regime stabilizing itself and Mubarak leaving because of the relative weakness and division of the demonstrators. But that’s a guess and not a forecast.

Geopolitical Significance

Whatever happens matters a great deal to Egyptians. But only some of these outcomes are significant to the world. Among radical Islamists, the prospect of a radicalized Egypt represents a new lease on life. For Iran, such an outcome would be less pleasing. Iran is now the emerging center of radical Islamism; it would not welcome competition from Egypt, though it may be content with an Islamist Egypt that acts as an Iranian ally (something that would not be easy to ensure).

For the United States, an Islamist Egypt would be a strategic catastrophe. Egypt is the center of gravity in the Arab world. This would not only change the dynamic of the Arab world, it would reverse U.S. strategy since the end of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Sadat’s decision to reverse his alliance with the Soviets and form an alliance with the United States undermined the Soviet position in the Mediterranean and in the Arab world and strengthened the United States immeasurably. The support of Egyptian intelligence after 9/11 was critical in blocking and undermining al Qaeda. Were Egypt to stop that cooperation or become hostile, the U.S. strategy would be severely undermined.

The great loser would be Israel. Israel’s national security has rested on its treaty with Egypt, signed by Menachem Begin with much criticism by the Israeli right. The demilitarization of the Sinai Peninsula not only protected Israel’s southern front, it meant that the survival of Israel was no longer at stake. Israel fought three wars (1948, 1967 and 1973) where its very existence was at issue. The threat was always from Egypt, and without Egypt in the mix, no coalition of powers could threaten Israel (excluding the now-distant possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons). In all of the wars Israel fought after its treaty with Egypt (the 1982 and 2006 wars in Lebanon) Israeli interests, but not survival, were at stake.

If Egypt were to abrogate the Camp David Accords and over time reconstruct its military into an effective force, the existential threat to Israel that existed before the treaty was signed would re-emerge. This would not happen quickly, but Israel would have to deal with two realities. The first is that the Israeli military is not nearly large enough or strong enough to occupy and control Egypt. The second is that the development of Egypt’s military would impose substantial costs on Israel and limit its room for maneuver.

There is thus a scenario that would potentially strengthen the radical Islamists while putting the United States, Israel, and potentially even Iran at a disadvantage, all for different reasons. That scenario emerges only if two things happen. First, the Muslim Brotherhood must become a dominant political force in Egypt. Second, they must turn out to be more radical than most observers currently believe they are — or they must, with power, evolve into something more radical.

If the advocates for democracy win, and if they elect someone like ElBaradei, it is unlikely that this scenario would take place. The pro-Western democratic faction is primarily concerned with domestic issues, are themselves secular and would not want to return to the wartime state prior to Camp David, because that would simply strengthen the military. If they win power, the geopolitical arrangements would remain unchanged.

Similarly, the geopolitical arrangements would remain in place if the military regime retained power — save for one scenario. If it was decided that the regime’s unpopularity could be mitigated by assuming a more anti-Western and anti-Israeli policy — in other words, if the regime decided to play the Islamist card, the situation could evolve as a Muslim Brotherhood government would. Indeed, as hard as it is to imagine, there could be an alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood designed to stabilize the regime. Stranger things have happened.

When we look at the political dynamic of Egypt, and try to imagine its connection to the international system, we can see that there are several scenarios under which certain political outcomes would have profound effects on the way the world works. That should not be surprising. When Egypt was a pro-Soviet Nasserite state, the world was a very different place from what it had been before Nasser. When Sadat changed his foreign policy, the world changed with it. If Sadat’s foreign policy changes, the world changes again. Egypt is one of those countries whose internal politics matter to more than its own citizens.

Most of the outcomes I envision leave Egypt pretty much where it is. But not all. The situation is, as they say, in doubt, and the outcome is not trivial.


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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 23:32:36 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor), posted by Olog-hai on Sun Jan 30 23:17:16 2011.

Why didn't you bolden this part...

"If the advocates for democracy win, and if they elect someone like ElBaradei, it is unlikely that this scenario would take place. The pro-Western democratic faction is primarily concerned with domestic issues, are themselves secular and would not want to return to the wartime state prior to Camp David, because that would simply strengthen the military. If they win power, the geopolitical arrangements would remain unchanged."



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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 23:36:23 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor), posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 23:32:36 2011.

Because that works against the propagandists he's fronting for. And the article, like so many others overemphasizes the importance of the Muslim Brotherhood which is an extremely small majority of "thought" in Egypt. Their power only existed on a basis of their opposition to the regime. If the regime falls, they will be marginalized and insignificant.

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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by B68 slow poke on Sun Jan 30 23:39:19 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor), posted by Olog-hai on Sun Jan 30 23:17:16 2011.

This is what we get for all the $ that the USA gives Egypt..They are a OIL RICH NATION. The corruption is out of hand.

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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jan 30 23:54:00 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor), posted by B68 slow poke on Sun Jan 30 23:39:19 2011.

FOX News told ya that?

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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Jan 31 00:02:44 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor), posted by Olog-hai on Sun Jan 30 23:17:16 2011.

In 1952, Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser staged a military coup that displaced the Egyptian monarchy, civilian officers in the military, and British influence in Egypt.

What about General Naguib, Egypt's Kerensky?



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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 31 01:27:17 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Jan 30 16:06:08 2011.

Correlation doesn't imply causation.

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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 31 01:28:16 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor), posted by B68 slow poke on Sun Jan 30 23:39:19 2011.

They are absolutely not an oil rich nation.

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Re: Egypt Revolts

Posted by SMAZ on Mon Jan 31 01:34:10 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Sun Jan 30 09:23:14 2011.

ClearAspect thinks that revolutions in countries like Egypt are a Bob Marley song.

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Re: Egypt Revolts!

Posted by SMAZ on Mon Jan 31 01:36:01 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by ClearAspect on Sun Jan 30 08:42:17 2011.

Yeah, Egypt 2011 is the USA 1776.
What a great comparison!!! Who would have thought of that?
Identical situation, history and geopolitical dynamics.
What was I thinking??

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Re: Egypt Revolts

Posted by SMAZ on Mon Jan 31 01:39:53 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts, posted by rockparkman on Sun Jan 30 08:21:51 2011.

agreed.

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Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor)

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Mon Jan 31 01:40:58 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts (More from Stratfor), posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 31 01:28:16 2011.

Oh, I'm sure if they find a few Soviet-era tractors buried out in the sands past Giza, they might be able to come up with a few gallons of the stuff. :)

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