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The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 08:11:42 2020 Here is why the experts are wrong about coronavirus and now the death toll was inflated. If Newsweek was correct last October, coronavirus is no worse than seasonal flu. So why all the lockdowns and scare tactics? What is wrong with just practicing physical distancing (because social isn't even the correct word) and wearing masks to protect us? Why close schools when they are not the spreaders and those under 20 have an extremely low death rate? Why close religious establishments and consider them non-essential services, when you consider alcohol as an essential service? (It's because states can't afford to lose the billions they collect in liquor taxes.) Why did the NYC top doctor just warn elderly not to leave their homes, except for essential services, when it is a proven fact you are more protected outdoors than indoors from getting the virus? So much of what we are told just doesn't make sense. Do your own thinking. Don't allow the media to think for you. |
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| (1790722) | |
Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 08:28:20 2020, in response to The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 08:11:42 2020. It's very simple. The Newsweek opinion piece has factual errors.And this is just an absurd misreading of the cited advice. You are far safer in your own home than you are outside your home. And they assume that if you leave your home you will likely enter indoors somewhere else. Why did the NYC top doctor just warn elderly not to leave their homes, except for essential services, when it is a proven fact you are more protected outdoors than indoors from getting the virus? Agreed though that not all expert advice is perfect. |
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| (1790732) | |
Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 09:13:41 2020, in response to The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 08:11:42 2020. "What is wrong with just practicing physical distancing"No one does it. " and wearing masks to protect us?" It has to cover your little noses. "Why close schools when they are not the spreaders" Children expel a very high viral load. "protected outdoors than indoors from getting the virus?" Not true, but I think you're getting at the myth that viruses just strike you whilst laying in bed and aren't transmitted. "Do your own thinking. Don't allow the media to think for you." The media told me it was just a flu, and don't wear a mask. I don't do American media. Now the hospitals are full, and there are hours long waits to get a test. A mosk in middle England saw more funerals in a month than they do in a year. Last spring. Six weeks ago the excess deaths are 300,000. But you know what, I'm not involved in your all or nothing death cult. That's for the media. I'm more intested in live people and the virus. Yeah, if people worse their damn mask and did social distancing, things would be better. Let's go see some examples: No:  No:  DEFINATELY NO:  NO!  NO!  NOPE  No: No:  MULTIPLE times! Even outside in a crowd: No:  Maybe if people learned what distance f-in means you wouldn't have this issue. I have another thread somewhere with good pictures there too. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 09:14:43 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 09:13:41 2020. Oh this reminds me, I got a thing of 32 times Democratic politicans broke social distancing, masks, and stay at home rules.Including our favorite "different" mayor of Chicago. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 09:35:26 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 08:28:20 2020. What kind of faulty assumption is if you leave your house, you will just enter indoors somewhere else? Plenty people leave their house to take a walk, get fresh air, walk the dog and for many other reasons? |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 09:49:08 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 09:35:26 2020. Of course that's a possibility. And if you want to deliberately misinterpret the key point they are trying to make, that's your privilege. |
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| (1790742) | |
Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 10:13:36 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 08:28:20 2020. What are some of the factual errors in the Newsweek piece? |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 10:15:05 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 09:49:08 2020. I am not deliberately misinterpreting anything. If you draw your conclusion based on a false premise, your conclusion will be wrong, misleading or inaccurate. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 11:10:45 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 08:28:20 2020. A journ-o-list fucking up? Say it ain't so!This is goign to end up like that telecommuting thread over at subchat. The next day Washington Post ran a giant article about people going back to work. Just number 100 in a series. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 11:40:42 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 10:13:36 2020. Especially that the covid death rate is overstated.Recent average deaths in a given region, or in the US as a whole, are known. Actual death rates can be compared with recent averages, to determine "extra" deaths since covid came to be. The number of "extra" deaths is more than the deaths attributed to covid, and this is despite the fact that accidental deaths due to auto accidents are way down. Yes, some of those extra deaths are because people had a heart attack and were afraid to go to the hospital, but overall it indicates that measured covid deaths are correct or maybe a bit low. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 11:42:33 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 10:15:05 2020. It is completely untrue that you are safer outdoors than you are indoors in your own residence*. You are only safer outdoors than you are indoors in a public space.* If you avoid visitors. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 11:47:13 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 10:13:36 2020. The Newsweek opinion piece asserts that "suicides and car accident fatalities are being counted as COVID deaths, when they really aren't".That is false. What the CDC is doing is recording deaths where COVID is the primary cause of death. Even if you have heart disease, or HIV, that doesn't mean you can't die of COVID. You can actually have multiple comorbidities going on, none of which are fatal, and have COVID come along and knock you off just on the severity of that pathogen alone. Put another way, a patient who gets put on a ventilator because they have COVID, will not die because they are also arthritic. It's misleading to suggest that other medical condition preclude a diagnosis of fatal COVID infection. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Dec 2 11:56:10 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 11:47:13 2020. And also, a death certificate can have multiple causes of death. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:17:23 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 11:42:33 2020. Outdoors is a public space. Is the assumption that everyone going outdoors will be in a crowd and not wearing a mask? |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:22:09 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 11:40:42 2020. But the article asks the question what is a Covid death? Should soneone in a car accident who dies and tested positive for Covid be considered a Covid death which is what happened? Especially since many people testing positives don't even gave any symptoms. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:24:53 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 11:47:13 2020. And how do you know that suicides and car accidents were not counted as Covid deaths especially since many doctors reported they were pressured to write down Covid as the cause of death even when they thought it wasn't. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 12:26:09 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:22:09 2020. Should someone in a car accident who dies and tested positive for Covid be considered a Covid death which is what happened?No. And while it may happen every now and then, it is a negligible cause of potential overstatement of covid deaths. There are plenty of factors that work in the opposite direction. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Dec 2 12:26:57 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:24:53 2020. Car accidents are way down, so they cannot possibly be a source of overstatement of covid deaths, given that total deaths are way up. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:30:39 2020, in response to The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 08:11:42 2020. This Danish study performed by many doctors claim masks are of no use to prevent coronavirus. The fact that more people today are wearing masks in the US than ever before and the infection rate is the highest it has been according to mainstream media would tend to support the Danish study. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:35:43 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:24:53 2020. Because that's not how deaths are reported. In most municipal systems in the United States today, including NYC, there are but five categories of death:Homicide Suicide Therapeutic complications Accidental Other (out-of-hospital illness, person missing more than seven years, environmental, etc.) COVID is almost always either "therapeutic complications" (if the patient died while treating in the hospital, nursing home, or other clinical setting), OR "other" (if the person had COVID and died at home). Car accidents and suicide are in separate categories, and would be proximate even if the person was also COVID-positive. An exception to that rule would be a person so severely ill with COVID that they lost control of a car they were driving, but that is extremely unlikely. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:39:55 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:35:43 2020. I hate to defend you, but I enjoy that everyone in the country is now an expert in how death certificates work.Reminds me of when everyone was an expert on pre-existing conditions and health insurance. I must put this public service up here, because as I predicted, this thread is getting mired down into a death cult, when shutdowns and restrictions aren't only exclusively about death, nor is the big issue. if it were about a quick death, there wouldn't be much issues left. Whilst the CDC gives me cutsey graphics about being nice to others. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:40:51 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:30:39 2020. The high COVID infection rate here is not correlated with people wearing masks, but rather with people refusing to wear masks or doing other high-risk things like having a huge motorcycle rally with little social distancing and uneven mask usage, during a pandemic. |
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| (1790796) | |
Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:42:06 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:39:55 2020. I know how death certificates work because clinical instruction at the morgue is part of the paramedic training curriculum. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:42:25 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:40:51 2020. Of all the pictuers I posted, and all the close knit groups that occur everyday, you focus on this one old event? |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:44:16 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:42:06 2020. You miss my point, possibly.Unless you have a medical background, or have done geneology work, no ones seen a death certificate. And now everyone wants to argue over that nonense. Watch the video. The epidemic control policies in most places in the world aren't dictated merely by death counts this winter, it's the burden on the healthcare system overall (which would lead to high death without that care). |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 2 12:45:11 2020, in response to The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 08:11:42 2020. Here's the mistake in your first link.On October 15, 2020, Joe Biden stated he would listen to the experts. At the time, his experts, including Dr. Fauci, held that, by December 31, 2020, the pandemic would have killed 400,000 Americans. Based on the predictions from Biden's experts, as of calendar day 334, we should have had 361,024 dead, rather than the 257,119 who actually died (and that is assuming, of course, that the mortality counts are accurate, which many claim is not the case). The average number of deaths reported per day so far is 770, not the 1,093 they claimed, yet they still insist that 400,000 will die by year's end. The cited 361,024 predicted dead figure is presumably based on: (334/366) * 400000 = 365027, which is close enough for most work. The authors did not explain their calculation. The problem is that this linear proportional extrapolation is wrong for an exponential growth process. That's how communicable diseases spread. Here's the example. The first person infects 2 others at time=1. Each of these 2 people infect another 2 for a total of 4 at time=2. Each of these 4 infects 2 people for a total of 8, at time=3. Each of these 8 people infects 2 people for a total of 16, at time=4. The progression is: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16,... Let's look at the linked article's proof for Faucci being wrong, using this as an example. Faucci predicted 16 cases/deaths after 4 time periods. It's now half that time. The article predicted 16/2 = 8 cases. However, there were only 4. Therefore, Faucci overestimated the danger. Not quite. The correct extrapolation for exponential growth should be 16^(1/2) = 4. Let's use this calculation for Faucci's prediction. 400000^(334/366) = 129497.8 The actual number is 257,119. Faucci is an optimist. Death counts are a lot worse than predicted. So much for the simplistic arguments in American Thinker for American simpletons. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:45:25 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:17:23 2020. Dog owners have a 87% higher chance of getting covid. Give or take a few points if I misremembered (ie 89 or 78%) |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:45:45 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:42:25 2020. That one "old event" was less than 13 weeks ago, and is considered by infectious disease experts to have been a "super spreader" event. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:46:50 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:45:45 2020. Which may pale in comparasion to thanksgiving. Canada already had their spike from their Thanksgiving, which is in October.We have riots, BLM, election block parties with mayors and governors, and you name it. If it were the only event that occured this summer, I'd agree with you. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:47:00 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:35:43 2020. Are those the only categories? So if Covid is split into two categories, how do they even come up with one number?And if what you claim is true for NYC, how come the death certificate for my father who had lung cancer and a stroke three days before dying is listed as "natural causes" on his death certificate that I have a copy of. My mother who had dementia, but actually died from dehydration caused by diarrhea, is also listed as "natural causes." The story I heard was that there were only a few causes on the front of the certificate (natural, accidental, homicide, and suicide) with the more specific cause on the back which relatives are not privy to see. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:49:23 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:46:50 2020. Of course no one was infected at any of the BLM riots, etc. The were on,y infected by events at the White House. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:50:33 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 2 12:45:11 2020. I prefer excess deaths, as in some parts of the world, they don't test still anyway.That will capture the people who had "just the flu" or were asymptomatic but still had strokes, clots or heart attacks. Or those who missed other types of treatments because covid existed. This trickles down the line. At least, if anyone listened to me and I had a voice, that would be how I would do it. 330,000 are a lot of people. Ignoreing the ones who have long covid and brain fog, and organ damage. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:51:08 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:40:51 2020. In the grand scheme of things that one single event could not be responsible for the virus to be "exploding" across the US as the mainstream media reported. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:53:38 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:47:00 2020. "Natural causes" falls under "other", as I pointed out. It includes "out-of-hospital illness".COVID deaths are listed as COVID because even though they can occur in or out of a clinical setting, the root cause is still the same (e.g., COVID put a patient in the hospital, and he died of it despite receiving treatment). The category tells why, not what. What you get on the death certificate can list what happened in greater detail on the reverse, but all NYC deaths fall into one of the five categories I listed. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:53:58 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:51:08 2020. I looked outside at the parking lot of my complex last week. Empty for thanksgiving as it is everyear. The traffic is gridlocked outside. No one keeps space in the offices or ventilates.People are really too stupid to know how to put a mask on. I saw young adults dressed for the halloween drinking night. College town bars are packed. Restaurant lots are always full. If I saw any evidence outside that a pandemic was actually occuring off of the youtubes, and Trader Joes, I wouldn't believe there was one. It's hard for me to accept one group on motorcycles just because they be white and possibly with tattos. Every starta of society is screwed up imo. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:54:42 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:53:58 2020. And no ones working home from home. that' s a myth |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:58:12 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:22:09 2020. " Should soneone in a car accident who dies and tested positive for Covid be considered a Covid death which is what happened? "I would borrow from Tort Law, or even Torah Law on this. Did the covid cut their life short in a way they would have been alive today had they not been infected by someone? Were they not a whole person at the time of death? |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:58:29 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 2 12:45:11 2020. So you are saying that by the end of the year, there will be 400,000 deaths?You are also assuming the death count is accurate and not inflated in spite of the author's claim that doctors were pressured to enter Covid as cause of death when they didn't believe that was the case. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:07:38 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:40:51 2020. OMG,you're STILL reaching all the way back to Sturgis (which was never proven to have a correlation)?!?! You seemed to have skipped all the riots and demonstrations |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:08:11 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 12:45:45 2020. Wrong! Just speculation at best. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 13:11:52 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:07:38 2020. I posted a link to the correlation between Sturgis and sharply rising COVID rates IN THIS VERY THREAD. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Train Dude on Wed Dec 2 13:28:31 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 13:11:52 2020. LOL |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Joe V on Wed Dec 2 13:28:45 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 12:58:29 2020. Since we had 257,119 deaths by Julian day 334, not 361,024, the answer is no.You are also accusing the medical community of profiteering off of this, which is very Trumpian and a state of denial about the pandemic. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Joe V on Wed Dec 2 13:32:22 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:07:38 2020. So why did our numbers get better all summer, except in the sun belt states of Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona, then start spiking everywhere in September ? |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:38:38 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Dec 2 12:53:58 2020. Real Americans having a good time is a threat to those types. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Dec 2 13:44:41 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:38:38 2020. If those fellow real Americans infect me and other people, yes, it's a threat.I assume you're talking about Sturgis, because I don't know what you're responding to. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:54:07 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 2 13:11:52 2020. There was none with Sturgis. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:55:23 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by Joe V on Wed Dec 2 13:32:22 2020. AGAIN, stop chitchatting with the girls by the watercolor and pay attention! Sturgis is in South Dakota, NOT the states you mentioned. |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Joe V on Wed Dec 2 13:56:36 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:54:07 2020. For one thing:"COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with a 10-Day Motorcycle Rally in a Neighboring State — Minnesota, August–September 2020" https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm |
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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus |
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Posted by Joe V on Wed Dec 2 13:58:21 2020, in response to Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 2 13:55:23 2020. This is not the Sturgis thread.Virus does not care about state and national borders. |
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