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Re: The experts are wrong about coronavirus

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 2 12:45:11 2020, in response to The experts are wrong about coronavirus, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Dec 2 08:11:42 2020.

Here's the mistake in your first link.

On October 15, 2020, Joe Biden stated he would listen to the experts. At the time, his experts, including Dr. Fauci, held that, by December 31, 2020, the pandemic would have killed 400,000 Americans.

Based on the predictions from Biden's experts, as of calendar day 334, we should have had 361,024 dead, rather than the 257,119 who actually died (and that is assuming, of course, that the mortality counts are accurate, which many claim is not the case). The average number of deaths reported per day so far is 770, not the 1,093 they claimed, yet they still insist that 400,000 will die by year's end.

The cited 361,024 predicted dead figure is presumably based on:

(334/366) * 400000 = 365027, which is close enough for most work. The authors did not explain their calculation.

The problem is that this linear proportional extrapolation is wrong for an exponential growth process. That's how communicable diseases spread.

Here's the example. The first person infects 2 others at time=1. Each of these 2 people infect another 2 for a total of 4 at time=2. Each of these 4 infects 2 people for a total of 8, at time=3. Each of these 8 people infects 2 people for a total of 16, at time=4. The progression is: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16,...

Let's look at the linked article's proof for Faucci being wrong, using this as an example. Faucci predicted 16 cases/deaths after 4 time periods. It's now half that time. The article predicted 16/2 = 8 cases. However, there were only 4. Therefore, Faucci overestimated the danger.

Not quite. The correct extrapolation for exponential growth should be 16^(1/2) = 4. Let's use this calculation for Faucci's prediction.

400000^(334/366) = 129497.8

The actual number is 257,119. Faucci is an optimist. Death counts are a lot worse than predicted.

So much for the simplistic arguments in American Thinker for American simpletons.

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