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| Sure hope the city preps for what's coming (1368431) | |
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Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SUBWAYMAN on Thu Oct 1 02:53:58 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. Is that the European model? |
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| (1368438) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 02:58:47 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. Bookmark this post, it will always be up to date. This is the water vapor image and the benefit of watching this is that it shows you the intensity of water in the atmosphere even when it isn't raining, as well as the concentration of water as it's dropping out of the sky somewhere. It's "real time" and consists of a loop up to now (refreshed every 15 minutes) from several hours earlier. It can help spot the path of things as they approach:
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| (1368439) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 03:05:18 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SUBWAYMAN on Thu Oct 1 02:53:58 2015. GFS is actually a NOAA model, "Global Forecast System". You're probably thinking of the ecmwf models. I forget what weather channel called them a while ago, but those are the real ones. But the old Euro models are now incorporated into the GFS product.If you're actually into this stuff, you might want to hit up this site which has wads more. (grin) https://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php |
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| (1368440) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 03:08:01 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 03:05:18 2015. "Your tax dollars at work" there. The folks who work for your government are actually rapidly improving the science of things. However, those who want them to stop really don't do science. FWIW though, great data there if you (or the MTA which depends on the likes of the weather channel to "name it and claim it") cares to look at the raw data by anyone who actually understands it. :)Hope this all helps! |
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| (1368441) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SUBWAYMAN on Thu Oct 1 03:19:58 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 03:08:01 2015. Thanks! |
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| (1368442) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by WillD on Thu Oct 1 03:21:22 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 03:08:01 2015. Just remember that certain former PA senator and synonym for post-coital excretions wanted to virtually eliminate NWS's dissemination of information to the public so as to force everyone to go through Accuweather and their competitors. |
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| (1368443) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 03:26:24 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by WillD on Thu Oct 1 03:21:22 2015. And he SUCCEEDED. :(A good number of my old friends at NOAA who I worked with often are now working for the airlines, moved to Ottawa, Christchurch, NZ and to Canberra for FAR better paying jobs where they're appreciated for their science. That little shithead GUTTED NOAA. But there's STILL some highly underpaid and dedicated folks there who are still looking out for us all. And "COMCAST/Weather Channel" ... LOL! They had it coming. :) |
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| (1368444) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 03:31:00 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SUBWAYMAN on Thu Oct 1 03:19:58 2015. You're welcome! Always glad to offer stuff to anyone who's interested. :) |
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| (1368446) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Thu Oct 1 03:33:12 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. if it really could hit NYC, I'm driving up there on Saturday morning to experience it. |
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| (1368449) | |
Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by heypaul on Thu Oct 1 04:41:10 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. So given the lessons learned from the devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy, what would you do if you were in charge of MTA's storm preparedness?Would you immediately suspend all current Sandy related repairs, as it's all going to get flooded again, so why bother? Would you divert 3 or 4 R-32 train sets to the Rockaways, so that you have equipment available to provide shuttle service, once the exposed tracks in Broad Channel get washed away again. Assure your customers that their weekly or monthly MetroCards will be credited for however many weeks or months the subway system is closed? |
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| (1368453) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Hamilton Express on Thu Oct 1 06:27:46 2015, in response to Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by heypaul on Thu Oct 1 04:41:10 2015. The subway system is more properly storm proof now after Sandy. So hopefully, there would be less aftermath delays and closures. |
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| (1368455) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by AlM on Thu Oct 1 06:55:05 2015, in response to Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Hamilton Express on Thu Oct 1 06:27:46 2015. Yes, they had better have dams that can be put in place to keep water from pouring down the entrances again. Anything else would be gross negligence. |
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| (1368459) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by heypaul on Thu Oct 1 07:47:56 2015, in response to Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by AlM on Thu Oct 1 06:55:05 2015. I heard that the Beavers on the wall at Astor Place have been busy for several months collecting Good Humor Popsicle sticks from the track bed and will construct a dam that will stop any water from inundating the station. |
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| (1368465) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by r33/r36 mainline on Thu Oct 1 08:19:30 2015, in response to Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Hamilton Express on Thu Oct 1 06:27:46 2015. Those Amtrak tunnels between Jersey and NY though... Amtrak and NJT suits must be shitting bricks right now! |
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| (1368466) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Lou from Brooklyn on Thu Oct 1 08:21:38 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. Will be in meetings today about opening the shelters, getting food ready for shelters and busing to the shelters.Last time it was the first time we ordred dog/cat food for the shelters and allowed residents to bring their pets. |
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| (1368470) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Thu Oct 1 09:17:24 2015, in response to Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by r33/r36 mainline on Thu Oct 1 08:19:30 2015. Why would those officials care too much? |
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| (1368493) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Dave on Thu Oct 1 11:20:59 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. Latest forecast has the worst of it missing NYC. |
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| (1368495) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by AlM on Thu Oct 1 11:35:13 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Dave on Thu Oct 1 11:20:59 2015. That's what they said about Sandy until the last hour or two also. :)We'll see. It's always more likely to miss NYC than to hit NYC. |
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| (1368496) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Mitch45 on Thu Oct 1 11:42:50 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. I am once again thankful that my house is on high ground and that I am not in a flood zone. |
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| (1368502) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 12:41:48 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by LuchAAA on Thu Oct 1 03:33:12 2015. Bring an inner tube or two. :) |
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| (1368503) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 12:46:19 2015, in response to Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by heypaul on Thu Oct 1 04:41:10 2015. Probably would do most of the above. I'm hoping that they have all those tunnel bladders they were talking about last year to seal them off. Even more so, hoping the forecasts are wrong. That would be even better. :) |
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| (1368504) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 12:49:24 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Lou from Brooklyn on Thu Oct 1 08:21:38 2015. Sounds like a hectic few days ahead, and yeah ... doing that makes sense or the residents would probably stay home with their pets and that wouldn't be a good thing at all. |
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| (1368505) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 12:50:24 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Dave on Thu Oct 1 11:20:59 2015. Either way, there's still going to be a lot of water coming down. The original numbers were plotted before the hurricane blew up. That's only "bonus features". |
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| (1368507) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 13:07:17 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Dave on Thu Oct 1 11:20:59 2015. By the way, hurricanes are among the most unpredictable meteorological features. They can radically change course within hours, and trying to predict 3 to 5 days out is nearly impossible. The real feature of concern either way though is that trough all the way down to the gulf along the Appalachians. All the weather from the west has to go around the tip at the bottom and work its way up the coast. That will make for plenty of water even if the hurricane doesn't bring in tides. |
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| (1368511) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Dave on Thu Oct 1 13:41:40 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 12:50:24 2015. http://news.yahoo.com/video/york-city-area-not-likely-221504896.html |
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| (1368512) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Avid Reader on Thu Oct 1 13:47:20 2015, in response to Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by r33/r36 mainline on Thu Oct 1 08:19:30 2015. Oh? Bricks you say.Are they going to brick up the portals? Poor choice of material, unless they are kiln fired. |
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| (1368513) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 13:50:06 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Dave on Thu Oct 1 13:41:40 2015. Yep ... looking like it's to the east right now. Sandy was plotted similarly before a cold front moved and sucked it in. It's really too early to pin down a final path up here. Wait until Saturday at the earliest. And even then, hurricanes can do a 180 out of nowhere. |
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| (1368534) | |
Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Thu Oct 1 18:59:26 2015, in response to Re: Challenge to Transit Planners Here.....Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Terrapin Station on Thu Oct 1 09:17:24 2015. Um, if this became the equal of Sandy there could be big problems ahead. |
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| (1368535) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Thu Oct 1 19:00:33 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by AlM on Thu Oct 1 11:35:13 2015. The forecasts I saw ALL had Sandy making that big left turn towards NYC. |
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| (1368536) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Thu Oct 1 19:01:52 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 13:50:06 2015. They were actually very accurate on Sandy where I was and the left turn was expected.More of the models having this going out to sea BUT even if so there still could be rain and so forth. |
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| (1368543) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Steve B-8AVEXP on Thu Oct 1 19:13:24 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. Let's hope that hurricane accepts a bottom yellow out towards the ocean. |
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| (1368546) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by chud1 on Thu Oct 1 19:15:01 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Steve B-8AVEXP on Thu Oct 1 19:13:24 2015. IAWTP!.chud1. :)..... |
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| (1368561) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Andrew Saucci on Thu Oct 1 20:13:11 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015. There are still some who think that planning ahead for a hurricane means running normal service. Fortunately, not too many of those folks hang out here. I really don't have patience for that nonsense after Irene and Sandy. Let's hope that we get a good forecast and that we do whatever we must if a hurricane really does head this way. |
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| (1368562) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by Andrew Saucci on Thu Oct 1 20:16:46 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Steve B-8AVEXP on Thu Oct 1 19:13:24 2015. Maybe we can disable the punch that would send it here. Anyone have a pair of wire cutters? |
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| (1368570) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by N6 Limited on Thu Oct 1 20:45:25 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 02:58:47 2015. Thanks! |
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| (1368582) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 23:53:35 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by Wallyhorse on Thu Oct 1 19:01:52 2015. The big thing with this one is different from Sandy. It'll only be a storm surge issue if the hurricane actually does that. What makes this one different is the long low along the coast and the sheer amount of water that the hurricane top is feeding into it. This will be, if anything, a flooding event. Unless of course there's enough wind blowing the ocean into that funnel shape of lower NY bay.Here's hoping that it does continue heading east. But there's still going to be a LOT of water coming out of the sky. That's the real hazard. More rain than can be pumped out. |
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| (1368584) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 00:35:21 2015, in response to Sure hope the city preps for what's coming, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Oct 1 01:55:50 2015.  The latest charts are indicating even more of a likely eastern movement, and hopefully if the hurricane manages to draw that cold front through, then the chance of heavy rains wreaking havoc might also diminish. Here's the latest chart: 
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| (1368587) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Fri Oct 2 01:48:07 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 00:35:21 2015. That is very good news, though the EURO model had been the only one predicting this all along. That model never wavered from that. |
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Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 01:58:40 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by Wallyhorse on Fri Oct 2 01:48:07 2015. Yeah, NOAA has to average 6 different models, and every now and then one of the others is the right one. Not all that long ago, they were able to pretty fairly predict three days out. Now that computers are calling the shots, they're lucky to be accurate 12 HOURS out. :(The Euro models are really good, especially with respect to summertime here. Not so great on the cusps. But one thing to ALWAYS remember, hurricanes are steered by the higher level atmospheric winds. They can shift easily and hurricanes, despite plotted models, can turn 80 in a couple of hours depending on what steering currents are aloft. And if, like Sandy, they manage to cross a front to the other side, all bets are off. It's like that. |
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Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 01:59:46 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 01:58:40 2015. "80" should have been "180" for anyone who couldn't interpolate there. |
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| (1368590) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by Steve B-8AVEXP on Fri Oct 2 05:40:40 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 00:35:21 2015. Looks like a diversion. |
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| (1368593) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Fri Oct 2 07:39:45 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 00:35:21 2015. So basically you were wrong. Thanks. |
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| (1368612) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by fdtutf on Fri Oct 2 10:34:24 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by Terrapin Station on Fri Oct 2 07:39:45 2015. Um, no, it's called "meteorology." Forecasts change all the time. In what sense was Selkirk "wrong"? |
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| (1368622) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 12:20:17 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by Terrapin Station on Fri Oct 2 07:39:45 2015. I always knew you were ... "simple", but I had no idea of its extent. Thanks for the demonstration. |
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| (1368676) | |
Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by milantram on Fri Oct 2 20:53:18 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 12:20:17 2015. LOL |
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Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by Nilet on Fri Oct 2 21:31:42 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by Terrapin Station on Fri Oct 2 07:39:45 2015. No wonder you ran away from me in Penn Station the other day. |
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Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Sat Oct 3 23:50:43 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by Nilet on Fri Oct 2 21:31:42 2015. You keep wondering LOL! |
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Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Sat Oct 3 23:51:38 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by fdtutf on Fri Oct 2 10:34:24 2015. He insisted we were getting a big one. |
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Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Sat Oct 3 23:52:14 2015, in response to Re: Sure hope the city preps for what's coming - LATEST CHARTS, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Oct 2 12:20:17 2015. For once in your life just admit you were wrong. |
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