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| Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge (1871933) | |
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Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 15:35:06 2021 I mistakenly posted this on the Sub Chat forum.There's a lot of pressure to reduce the amount of time a person must remain in isolation after coming in contact with an infectious person. Here's a summary of New Zealand's experience. All travelers entering NZ had to have a negative test before departing. They entered a managed isolation facility (a 3 to 5 star hotel) for 14 days. Special arrangements were made in the hotel ventilation and restrictions were placed on the person's movement to guarantee that Covid could not be contracted while in the isolation facility. They were tested periodically during that time to see they were Covid free. They used the sensitive PCR test. If a person tested positive, that person was moved to a quarantine facility. There were such incidents. The interval between arrival and the first positive test is a measure of how long a person should remain in isolation. NZ archives its daily press releases, as shown in this link: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-news-and-media-updates Here's a sample of a typical press release that shows the report given for the discovery of Covid cases of those who were isolated. https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/hawkes-bay-poised-hit-90-double-dosed-34-cases-community-41-hospital-8-icu Scroll down to the table entitled: "New cases identified at the border " to see how the data is presented. I wrote a screen scraper to pull this data off all their press releases. Here's a summary of the results.
The cum_distribution column is the running percentage of those who tested positive. The missed column is the percentage of positive cases that would be missed, if testing stopped on the indicated day after after arrival. If a person tested for only 5 days, there's an 11% probability that person with Covid would not have been detected. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Dec 27 15:38:41 2021, in response to Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 15:35:06 2021. Nobody’s going to read about your cum_distribution, pervert. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by AlM on Mon Dec 27 16:37:43 2021, in response to Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 15:35:06 2021. Those numbers seem to argue for 6 days of quarantine. After 6 days, the reduction in missed cases per additional day of testing become much less. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Mon Dec 27 20:37:50 2021, in response to Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 15:35:06 2021. Let me ask you a question....if someone only has a 7 day vacation, how will he be able to quarantine for 14 days, and how would he be able to compensate for the hotel and other accommodations? Can he call his boss and tell him of the situation? |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:04:46 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by AlM on Mon Dec 27 16:37:43 2021. Those numbers seem to argue for 6 days of quarantine. After 6 days, the reduction in missed cases per additional day of testing become much less.No sir. The problem is you cannot let any cases get out into the community. A single case will generate thousands cases in a community that was previously Covid free. Think back to the single Covid case of a man in New Rochelle in Feb 2020. He had the wild Covid, went to religious services in NYC and visited a school. It was the first case, they did excellent contact tracing. It led to over a hundred secondary cases. Fortunately, it was stopped at the secondary stage. Otherwise, it would have infected thousands. Delta is much more infectious. New Zealand's current problem is that they relaxed their border restrictions. They established a passport arrangement with Australia, which was also Covid free at that time. One person had an undetected case of the Delta variant and traveled in New Zealand without going through the 14 day isolation period. The first community case appeared in about 7 days of his arrival. That case would have been contained had this person gone through the 14 day isolation period. Despite going onto a nation-wide lockdown, there have been 10,670 community cases (and counting) traced back to that single incident. The basic problem with the Delta variant and even more with Omicron is that it rips through families in the home setting. It's just not safe to be allowed to spread in the community. There have been imported cases of the Omicron variant in New Zealand. They have been discovered during the 14 day isolation period and not spread into the community. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by ntrainride on Mon Dec 27 21:22:23 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:04:46 2021. up yours. and up theirs.but when the time comes i'd be willing to sell you my untainted unvaxed mil-spec quality immune-system potent blood, at 50k per liter. $100,000 minimal purchase. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:41:25 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by BILLBKLYN on Mon Dec 27 20:37:50 2021. Let me ask you a questionI counted a few. if someone only has a 7 day vacation, how will he be able to quarantine for 14 days, I think the realization is finally setting in that nobody wants a worker who can spread Covid to his co-workers, customers and bosses. The co-workers don't want to work in a place that does not take serious steps to prevent Covid's spread. It's one reason for the great resignation. Many businesses are closing because of Omicron without a mandate from the government. The question of a 7 day vacation (and no sick leave?) is academic. Businesses don't want workers who can spread Covid. Of course NYCT is an exception and the CDC is acquiescing to the mistaken notion that a little bit of Covid can be contained. how will he be able to quarantine for 14 days, and how would he be able to compensate for the hotel and other accommodations? That's simple. The government pays for it. It costs them a lot less to put someone up in a hotel for two weeks than maintain them in a hospital or ICU for a few days. Even NYC pays for hotel accommodations for people who must isolate but don't have a home support system. Can he call his boss and tell him of the situation? They are not being put up on Rikers. The hotels have phones, tv, high speed internet, and all the luxuries of a good hotel in the room. I'm sure they will supply a laptop for a guest to continue work via Zoom. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by 3-9 on Mon Dec 27 22:40:06 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:04:46 2021. Think back to the single Covid case of a man in New Rochelle in Feb 2020. He had the wild Covid, went to religious services in NYC and visited a school. It was the first case, they did excellent contact tracing. It led to over a hundred secondary cases. Fortunately, it was stopped at the secondary stage. Otherwise, it would have infected thousands.Was the case in New Rochelle really contained? IIRC, the guy commuted via Metro North - who knows how many more people got it from him. BTW, thanks for placing the info in tables - they've been really handy. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by 3-9 on Mon Dec 27 22:41:43 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Dec 27 15:38:41 2021. There's probably a fetish for that too. :-) |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by ntrainride on Tue Dec 28 00:05:31 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:41:25 2021. i would debate you on this anytime. you literally have nothing to say. it's enlightening, because it's so indicative of the level of cognitive abilities possessed by the majority of the take-your-needle! crowd." nobody wants a worker who can spread Covid to his co-workers, customers and bosses. The co-workers don't want to work in a place that does not take serious steps to prevent Covid's spread. It's one reason for the great resignation." bam! i'll knock you silly simply by asking for the logic which supports that statement. you have nothing! damn. nothing. amazing. and then there's "That's simple. The government pays for it. It costs them a lot less to put someone up in a hotel for two weeks than maintain them in a hospital or ICU for a few days." ohmigod, my ribs hurt from laughing so hard. this is absolutely stunning. i feel that i should give a hand here, to be honest. see, that cost analysis you proffered is...faulty. won't stand up to even a cursory glance at the data. there. my good deed for the day. but you only get one. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Tue Dec 28 03:19:19 2021, in response to Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 15:35:06 2021. You should isolate only the sick. Lockdowns are not isolation/quarantine. A fortnight is ridiculously long, particularly for an engineered virus with a 9944⁄100% survival rate. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge? |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 28 07:08:19 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge?, posted by Olog-hai on Tue Dec 28 03:19:19 2021. for an engineered virus with a 9944⁄100% survival rate.And one with a case fatality rate in excess of 5% at times. 
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Dec 28 07:28:52 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:04:46 2021. The problem is you cannot let any cases get out into the community.The United States is not the sort of police state that can prevent any cases from getting out into the community. Even China didn't always do it successfully. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Dec 28 09:04:42 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:41:25 2021. Not every job can be done by zoom. This is an unlikely, unreal scenario. Here's a other newsflash: people aren't as scared of covid as you seem to be. I know plenty of people who had it, and some currently, and I just shrug it off. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 28 09:19:07 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by AlM on Tue Dec 28 07:28:52 2021. The United States is not the sort of police state..."Police state" is the knee jerk response to any request for even minimal individual sacrifice for the greater good. Look at the responses to masking and vaccination requirements as examples. that can prevent any cases from getting out into the community. That non-police state cannot economically exist with a perpetual non-negligible percentage of people ill with Covid. The beginning of that economic collapse are beginning to show themselves. Even China didn't always do it successfully. I've been looking for examples by which Covid new case rates have been lowered to negligible levels without recourse to lockdowns. Are you aware of any? I'm not. I thought Israel might be such an example, with their introduction of a booster shot. It appeared to work for between Sept and Nov. There were very modest internal restrictions and controls for entering the country. It then discovered that booster shot efficacy declined rapidly starting 10 weeks after injection. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Dec 28 09:32:06 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 28 09:19:07 2021. It's time for everyone to get it. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Tue Dec 28 10:05:34 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by ntrainride on Mon Dec 27 21:22:23 2021. You might not be his type!!:) |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Tue Dec 28 10:08:56 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 21:41:25 2021. "the CDC is acquiescing to the mistaken notion that a little bit of Covid can be contained."Explain to me how the CDC is wrong, and you correct. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by ntrainride on Tue Dec 28 10:16:23 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Tue Dec 28 10:05:34 2021. that would be a relief. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 28 10:36:01 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Tue Dec 28 10:08:56 2021. "the CDC is acquiescing to the mistaken notion that a little bit of Covid can be contained."Explain to me how the CDC is wrong, and you correct. Cite a single country that has controlled Covid at a negligible level in the long term, while relaxing controls designed to prevent community spread. Regarding the isolation duration: Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, also argues that fully vaccinated people who test positive for Covid-19 should not have to isolate the full 10 days if they test negative in less than that time. Jha called for studies to be done to determine the exact time period for isolation while suggesting a five-to-seven day isolation window with a negative rapid test result. https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/24/politics/cdc-updates-isolation-guidance-health-care-workers/index.html What do you think I did, from data that's been in plain sight. The only difference is that my data used the more sensitive PCR test rather than the less sensitive rapid tests. The PCR test will find an infectious person on or before the rapid test. Thus, a positive PCR test result might occur a day or two before the rapid test. Relying solely on negative rapid test results will allow Covid to escape isolation and into the community. |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by ntrainride on Tue Dec 28 11:15:47 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 28 10:36:01 2021. do you understand the value of data compression? do you understand how the underlying principles which make data compression efficient can be applied to other intellectual pursuits? do you understand the notion of "tipping points" as applied to data aquisition? do you understand the idea that excess data inevitably morph into random noise?that's just a random sample of questions that must be asked when the listener is presented with unsubstantiated data in order to move forward with rational exchange of ideas. beyond that what must be defined is how random sampling of events can be the genesis of assumed accurate measurements of a dynamic. beyond that the question of whether there's any value in having humans attempt to actively affect the ultimately inevitable natural course of the dynamic has to be answered. then we can talk. you cannot micromanage a macro trend. type all your jazz until your fingers are numb. charts and graphs and numbers. you still cannot micromanage a macro trend. would you try to count how many raindrops fell from the sky if asked to predict flood damage from a storm? you seem like a "smart" guy. so... |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Dec 28 12:47:57 2021, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 28 10:36:01 2021. Wheat from chaff |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Tue Dec 28 14:05:30 2021, in response to Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 15:35:06 2021. "There's a lot of pressure to reduce the amount of time a person must remain in isolation after coming in contact with an infectious person."You mean there is such a thing, and it's more than zero? You could've fooled me. That type of stuff is only for people outside of the US. We're all fat and pretty which somehow = "healthy". |
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Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Wed Mar 11 21:55:58 2026, in response to Re: Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge?, posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 28 07:08:19 2021. And one with a case fatality rate in excess of 5% at timesProof by assertion and argumentum ad verecundiam. |
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