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| Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge (1871933) | |||
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Covid Isolation Duration to Prevent New Surge |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Dec 27 15:35:06 2021 I mistakenly posted this on the Sub Chat forum.There's a lot of pressure to reduce the amount of time a person must remain in isolation after coming in contact with an infectious person. Here's a summary of New Zealand's experience. All travelers entering NZ had to have a negative test before departing. They entered a managed isolation facility (a 3 to 5 star hotel) for 14 days. Special arrangements were made in the hotel ventilation and restrictions were placed on the person's movement to guarantee that Covid could not be contracted while in the isolation facility. They were tested periodically during that time to see they were Covid free. They used the sensitive PCR test. If a person tested positive, that person was moved to a quarantine facility. There were such incidents. The interval between arrival and the first positive test is a measure of how long a person should remain in isolation. NZ archives its daily press releases, as shown in this link: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-news-and-media-updates Here's a sample of a typical press release that shows the report given for the discovery of Covid cases of those who were isolated. https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/hawkes-bay-poised-hit-90-double-dosed-34-cases-community-41-hospital-8-icu Scroll down to the table entitled: "New cases identified at the border " to see how the data is presented. I wrote a screen scraper to pull this data off all their press releases. Here's a summary of the results.
The cum_distribution column is the running percentage of those who tested positive. The missed column is the percentage of positive cases that would be missed, if testing stopped on the indicated day after after arrival. If a person tested for only 5 days, there's an 11% probability that person with Covid would not have been detected. |
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