Home · Maps · About
Home > OTChat

[ Post a New Response | Return to the Index ]

[1 2 3]

 

Page 1 of 3

Next Page >  

(1232976)

view threaded

WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 11 13:33:30 2014

fiogf49gjkf0d
Even the paper's own Chris Cillizza is shocked, and tries to explain.

The Washington Post’s election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate. Um, what?

By Chris Cillizza
October 10, 2014 at 4:08 PM
The Washington Post's Election Lab — our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall — is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models — kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. I reached out to John Sides, Ben Highton and Eric McGhee, who put together the model behind Election Lab, for some answers. Our conversation, edited only for grammar, is below.

FIX: The Election Lab model shows Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate majority. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance. Why is EL so bullish?

Election Lab: First, I should mention what I don't think is behind the difference: Our prediction for the vote share in each race. I'll bet that none of the modelers differ by more than a couple of percentage points in terms of how many votes they think each candidate will receive. Likewise, I'll bet we're all within a seat or two in terms of the number of total Democratic and Republicans seats we think most likely. Rather, the difference is more about the statistical confidence in our predictions. At Election Lab, we have always had a smaller margin of error than the other modelers. This reflects our conclusion that, by this point in the cycle, you can pretty much trust an average of the polls to tell you the winner. In defense of our approach, the races we gave a high probability at the end of the primary season almost two months ago are all predicted in the same direction today. All we’ve done is add to the list (all on the Republican side). So at least for those initially high probability races, things so far have played out as expected.

But we don't begrudge the other modelers in their disagreement with us on this — in fact, we think this is a useful conversation to have. And we would still be surprised if we got every race right, since even the high probabilities we have now suggest we could easily get a couple wrong.

FIX: On a race by race level, there is no state that EL rates as less than an 78 % probability. Is that certainty explained by the same factors as the overall prediction? Why or why not?

EL: Yes, it also comes from the same basic decision to trust the polls explicitly. As part of this decision, our confidence in a prediction grows the more consistently one candidate leads. That can turn a small lead into a fairly confident prediction.

FIX: Can you explain how you decide to weight the various factors that contribute to the model as the election gets closer? Is the EL process different than processes used by other modelers?

EL: At this point, we're almost 100 percent weighted toward the polls, except in races where the polling is extremely light (fewer than about four polls total). In those cases, we are just using the prediction from our fundamentals model. I think that all the other modelers are pretty much the same way. The big differences now concern certainty about the averages, and maybe a few other design decisions about the averaging process.

FIX: Given how much polling is coming out every day now, are models, which increasingly depend on polling as the election draws nearer, a lagging indicator of where these races are? A leading indicator? Something in between?

EL: Since everyone is basically using publicly-available polls, it all depends on how quickly the polls are released and how quickly the forecasters then include those results in their predictions. Then there are two additional factors: how heavily recent polls are weighted compared to the long-term average, and the uncertainty they impose on their prediction. The more [you] weight recent polls, the faster the prediction will change but the greater the chance that they'll just follow noise rather than real movement. The more uncertainty they impose, the more slowly the overall probabilities will change — kind of like the difference between the way you experience a wave in the middle of the ocean (a slow, gradual rise and fall) versus at the shore (a sharp, sudden hit). Unfortunately, we won't know for certain what's leading and what's lagging until Election Day.

FIX: What constitutes success as it relates to the model? Getting every race right? Something else?

EL: That's a very good question! A model should not be judged on whether it gets every race right, any more than a handicapper should. Rather, it should be judged on the probabilities it assigns to those outcomes. If the election were tomorrow and the Democrats held the majority, our prediction would turn out to be bad relative to the others. But the reverse is also true: if the Republicans claim the Senate, we would be better than the others. That's true even though pretty much all of the forecasters at least tilt toward a Republican Senate. A confident prediction should be punished especially hard if it's wrong, but it should also be rewarded more than others if it's right. When the issue is probability (as opposed to, say, vote shares), being on the correct side of 50 percent is not the end of the story.

On the other hand, the most we can do with one election is to identify the model that performed best for that election in the sense that the actual outcome was considered most likely according to its predictions. But "less likely" almost never means "impossible," so there's always the chance that this year was a fluke and a different model would perform better over a series of years. So while we should definitely rate the modelers after the election, the conversation about what makes the most sense for multiple elections will continue.

The reality is that in order to confidently figure out if one model is really better than another model (as opposed to just being lucky in a given set of races or for a single election year), we would need many more elections and election years. With enough data we could probably sort it out, but certainly looking at predictions for 36 Senate elections from a single election year will not be enough to determine once and for all if we’re better or worse than the folks at the Upshot, 538, etc.—only if we’re better or worse this year.

However, this kind of conversation is one of the great strengths of the modeling approach. For the most part, the modelers are not using information that is different than what's available to and used by everyone else watching these elections. In fact, the models often use less information than other, more qualitative, approaches. That's why these other approaches should continue to be part of the conversation. The difference is that the modelers make everything transparent and formal. They're really sticking their necks out in assigning probabilities to these specific events. That makes it easier to tell when someone got it wrong, and why. It makes our lives harder, of course, but I think it's useful for the community of people consuming these forecasts, and for advancing our understanding of what makes elections tick.

Post a New Response

(1232982)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 13:48:11 2014, in response to WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 11 13:33:30 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Put big bang on suicide watch

Post a New Response

(1232984)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 14:02:10 2014, in response to WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 11 13:33:30 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Rather, the difference is more about the statistical confidence in our predictions. At Election Lab, we have always had a smaller margin of error than the other modelers.

So everyone says the Republicans are more likely than not to take the Senate. All this means is that if the Democrats do keep the Senate the least embarrassed people will be 538.

Post a New Response

(1232985)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Oct 11 14:14:39 2014, in response to WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 11 13:33:30 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The Democrats should have been HAMMERING the GOP on last year's government shutdown, obstructionism, and piss-poor record on human rights (including healthcare) from LAST election day. I haven't seen the Dems do very much of that at all, and I can't understand why they aren't hitting the Republicans--and especially the Tea Party--hard on this, plus their abysmal track record on LGBT issues, which should be notable, given that as of now, for the first time in American history, a majority of states have gay marriage, and the issue enjoys strong voter support in 35 states.

If the GOP gains control of the senate, it will be less the GOP that wins, as it is the Democrats who lost. They have so many powerful weapons with which to attack the GOP, but they aren't using them effectively.

Post a New Response

(1232988)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:08:55 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Oct 11 14:14:39 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I think that you are misreading the temperament of the American electorate. What WE are reacting to is
1) the absolute blockade of congress by an intransigent Harry Reid
2) The absolute ineptness of this administration and the never ending list of scandals, The VA, The IRS, Obamacare rollout, Secret Service, Fast and Furious and Bengahzi just to name a few
3) The total nightmare that Obama's foreign policy has been shown to be
4) The loss of American standing in the world
5) The failures of the Obama economic policies.

The list is endless but when you lose the senate, it's because the democratic candidates supported the Obama train wreck no matter how hard they protest and claim the contrary now. It is what it is.

Post a New Response

(1232989)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:16:07 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:08:55 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Oh and add to that Obama's complete dismissal of any Republican or conservative and his failure to build any sort of bipartisanship

Post a New Response

(1232990)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:17:46 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:08:55 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Bullshit. Those scandals are FOX soap operas that the majority of Americans don't care about. The economy is actually doing much better than it was even last year. You may have a point with regard to foreign policy, although it's far from a nightmare. You try to make it sound like there's some mandate for change on the horizon but it's probably going to be a couple of seats in the Senate changing parties, if that.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1232991)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:19:55 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:16:07 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
LOL, he tried that, and it didn't work because teh GOP didn't want cooperation. You forget that we were here in 2009.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1232992)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 15:23:58 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:19:55 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Why do we have Romneycare and not expanded Medicare? Attempted bipartisanship.

Post a New Response

(1232993)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:24:59 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:17:46 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Not "Bullshit". They are non-scandals in the liberal media but the majority of Americans think that they are real.

Post a New Response

(1232994)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:25:36 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 15:23:58 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
That's the best example. The stimulus was another. I can't believe I read that he's being blamed for shunning bipartisanship.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1232995)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:26:22 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:24:59 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Perhaps in your FOX drenched echo chamber, but not out on the street.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1232996)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:28:10 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:26:22 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Pretty good smack talk there.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1232997)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:30:45 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 15:23:58 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Nonsense. I'd expect that sort of idiocy from sekjerk. You have zerobamacare because the democratic speaker of the house (at the time) told the American public that you have to vote for it to see what's in it. So the majority of Americans did and got fucked for their trouble. The only reason that it vaguely resembles anything like Romney's plan is because the democrats were so devoid of an original thought. Now the liberals are calling it Romneycare to try to mute the criticism. There was nothing in zerobama care that came from the Republican side of congress. Obama rejected every single idea that they proposed.

Post a New Response

(1232998)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:39:34 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:30:45 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
No, AlM is 100% correct. We do have Romneycare.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1232999)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 16:00:57 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:30:45 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
A good number of Democrats just wanted Medicare extended; it was a clear, straightforward idea (whether good or bad) and it was rejected. ACA is very very similar to the Massachusetts system. Those are simple facts.

Post a New Response

(1233000)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 16:01:59 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:30:45 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Wrong. ACA was the most compromised bill proposed. Its passage had nothing to do with what Speaker Pelosi said. In fact, your statement of "because the democratic speaker of the house (at the time) told the American public that you have to vote for it to see what's in it" demonstrates a utter lack of comprehension beyond fox news soundbite.

It is actually based on Romneycare *after* Deval Patrick fixed it. Had the republicans come up with any good ideas, I'm sure they would have been used. Everything they whined about would have compromised access to care or made it unnecessarily expensive. We've seen enough of that out SCOTUS.

Post a New Response

(1233001)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 16:01:59 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 15:30:45 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Wrong. ACA was the most compromised bill proposed. Its passage had nothing to do with what Speaker Pelosi said. In fact, your statement of "because the democratic speaker of the house (at the time) told the American public that you have to vote for it to see what's in it" demonstrates a utter lack of comprehension beyond fox news soundbite.

It is actually based on Romneycare *after* Deval Patrick fixed it. Had the republicans come up with any good ideas, I'm sure they would have been used. Everything they whined about would have compromised access to care or made it unnecessarily expensive. We've seen enough of that out SCOTUS.

Post a New Response

(1233005)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:44:46 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:26:22 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Well considering that Fox has such high ratings compared to what you watch, you are dismissing the feelings of a significant portion of the population.

Post a New Response

(1233006)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 16:47:45 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:44:46 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I don't watch television.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1233007)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:47:47 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 16:00:57 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Thats total crap. Extending medicare to the poor and uninsured was the perfect solution. Zerobama wanted government control over 1/6 of the US economy.

Post a New Response

(1233008)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:49:01 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 16:01:59 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Get a fucking soap box

Post a New Response

(1233009)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:51:56 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 15:23:58 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Where in Romneycare does the IRS have access to your medical records ?

Post a New Response

(1233010)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 16:55:52 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:47:47 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
That WAS the perfect solution, and precisely what the dems wanted to do. Your guys shot it down and demanded that everybody pay more tribute to the insurance companies. Want to keep your doctor? Want to keep the plan you had? Insurance companies are the ones who fucked ya.

Post a New Response

(1233011)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 17:02:09 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 16:55:52 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Bullshit. Obama could have done it without congress but he wanted to hijack 1/6 of the US economy.

Post a New Response

(1233012)

view threaded

Re: Wasp's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Edwards! on Sat Oct 11 17:02:37 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:44:46 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Title corrected.

Post a New Response

(1233013)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 17:03:08 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:51:56 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The IRS doesn't have access to our medical records. That's a FOX/GOP lie.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1233014)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 17:04:02 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:51:56 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Romneycare: State program, state tax agency instead of IRS.

http://www.massresources.org/schedule-hc.html

Post a New Response

(1233016)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 17:07:34 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 15:39:34 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Ya just GOTTA love it. They hate Romneycare so much, they want Romney to be President. Whatta country! :)

Post a New Response

(1233017)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 17:13:14 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 17:02:09 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And do what with it? Take off to Pago Pago and spend it? And I know that your only source for information is that echo chamber of yours, but Obama did want to try to do that. Then Darrel Issa. Where do you think that 1/6 came from?

Post a New Response

(1233018)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:14:44 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:47:47 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Extending Medicare as an alternative for anyone is what should have been done. The INSURANCE COMPANIES freaked, knowing that they would be bankrupt almost immediately. Shows the kind of margins they run if the government could do it cheaper, cover more and better. That goes against everything the RW is about, with all the privatizing they've done, especially in the military.....Halliburton food service? Whatever happened to Army cooks? Just one example. Why are we subsidizing corporate profit with tax dollars?

Post a New Response

(1233019)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 17:14:50 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 17:03:08 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Got a kick out of hearing one of the radio fucktards telling his loyal bunch of droolers that IRS runs the death panels and the decision is based on your gun registration. LOL!

Post a New Response

(1233020)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:16:14 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:49:01 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
It's mostly sold s liquids now. Go to a store. See what reality is like sometime. You need to learn.

Post a New Response

(1233022)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 17:25:11 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 17:14:50 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Some of the stuff that gets put out there is crazy.

your pal,
Fred

Post a New Response

(1233023)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:26:01 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 17:07:34 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Who is this "they" that you keep referring to - your cow and the rest of the heard. Speak for yourself and your tribe.

Post a New Response

(1233025)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:27:09 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:16:14 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Yeah, I forgot and besides, silly me, what was I thinking that a soap box could hold you up?

Post a New Response

(1233026)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:28:50 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:27:09 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Better than it would you. That's for damn sure.

Post a New Response

(1233027)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:29:44 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:14:44 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
You hit all the talking points. RW Halliburton, military, insurance companies. You're a little light on proof though. Did I use you and light in the same sentence. Oh snap.

Post a New Response

(1233028)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:30:34 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:28:50 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
It come in liquids now. Maybe if you went to the store once in a while you'd learn something.

Post a New Response

(1233029)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:31:36 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:30:34 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Who do you think just educated you?

Post a New Response

(1233030)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:32:40 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:29:44 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Just look up some recent history for yourself. I'm not Google.

Post a New Response

(1233031)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:33:00 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:31:36 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
hahahaha - what would you know about soap anyway?

Post a New Response

(1233032)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:33:36 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:32:40 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Where would you suggest that I start - Grimms?

Post a New Response

(1233033)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Oct 11 17:33:59 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Fred G on Sat Oct 11 17:25:11 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Sadly, some of them are way past Olog.

Post a New Response

(1233034)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:37:34 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 16:01:59 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
"Had the republicans come up with any good ideas, I'm sure they would have been used."

"ACA was the most compromised bill proposed."

You do see the inconsistencies in your post, don't you? Republicans had no good ideas but obamacare was a compromise deal. Hmmmmmm compromise between who? Obama, harry reid, nancy Pelosi and their friends in the insurance companies? I see now.

Post a New Response

(1233035)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Charles G on Sat Oct 11 17:37:38 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by AlM on Sat Oct 11 14:02:10 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
There is something wrong with their model.

95% sounds like they have too high a correlation between state results. There is still enough "local" in politics that the figure should not be that high -- especially since they need 6 pickups to take control.

Post a New Response

(1233036)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:45:21 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:33:00 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
More than you.

Post a New Response

(1233037)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sat Oct 11 17:52:21 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 17:37:34 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
ACA was admittedly the most compromised bill the Democratic Congress would devise in order to get RWers on board with it. That effort failed, and now we have an intransigent House that will not rework the flaws out. Like that public option even you said would be the solution. The few RW suggestions would compromise access to healthcare for many, for example not covering contraceptives as the basic medical care they are. In doing so, the forced birth crowd would end up raising rates as pregnancy and birth are far more costly than contraceptive to prevent an unwanted pregnancy, we've been over this how many zillion times? It's really gotten old......

Post a New Response

(1233040)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sat Oct 11 18:54:07 2014, in response to WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 11 13:33:30 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
zzzzz

It's so much higher than the others. An outlier.

Post a New Response

(1233041)

view threaded

Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sat Oct 11 18:57:02 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sat Oct 11 16:47:47 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Boy you really take the cake for misinformation. Extending Medicare would have been FAR more govt. control than Obamacare.

Post a New Response

[1 2 3]

 

Page 1 of 3

Next Page >  


[ Return to the Message Index ]