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| Re: COVID 2020 vs. 2021 (1842944) | |||
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Re: COVID 2020 vs. 2021 |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Aug 3 10:02:26 2021, in response to COVID 2020 vs. 2021, posted by Wakefield-241st Street on Tue Aug 3 06:58:23 2021. vaccines available that are highly effective against BOTH regular and Delta:Both CDC and Israel's Ministry of Health would differ regarding how effective vaccines are against Delta variant. Real world data: 50% of new cases in Israel are fully vaccinated. With 60% of population fully vaccinated this implies the vaccine is 40% effective. 80% of cases in Provincetown were fully vaccinated. With 60% of the population fully vaccinated, this implies vaccine is 0% effective. Mask up indoors, but not outdoors Avoiding Covid means not inhaling the virus. The amount of virus that's inhaled is proportional to the density of virus particles in the air that's breathed. Outdoors the air is being recirculated and any virus concentration is being continually diluted. Not so for indoors. Active virus aerosols can remain suspended in air for 72 hours. Given fixed floor and ceiling, spreading is cylindrical (1/r) as opposed to the usual spherical spreading (1/r2). N95 masks trap 95% of virus particles. no social distancing A person infected with the Delta variant sheds approximately 1000 times more virus particles. In order to provide the same particle density in the air as the original variant, the indoors separation would have to be 1000 * 6 or 6000 feet because of cylindrical spreading. Even the outdoor safe spherical spreading would have to be 190 feet (sqrt(1000) * 6). The increased shedding load makes social distancing impractical. led by the inept CDC The list should include the health authorities of almost every country. They bet the farm on the unproved assumptions that: low level community spread could be maintained; a vaccine and vaccination program could be implemented before the virus mutated to make the vaccines ineffective; have been slow to react when assumptions were disproved; have been too willing to craft recommendations to economic rather than health considerations. One big problem is the belief that new case rates can be reduced by vaccination and mask wearing. Until now, isolation (lockdown) has been required. There's only one possible exception: the UK during the last 2 weeks. However, there may be two caveats. The decline did not start until after school vacations started. There is a push app, where people are alerted to isolate for 10 days, when they come in contact with a person or place with Covid. That application has been successful in keeping about 600,000 people isolated. Many of them are supermarket employees. It's the reason that supermarket shelves are bare - plenty of supplies, nobody to put them on the shelves. There are signs the UK decline is flattening out. Further study is required for longer term trends. No preparation for the coming Lambda variant. |
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