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Re: COVID 2020 vs. 2021

Posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Aug 3 12:20:32 2021, in response to Re: COVID 2020 vs. 2021, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Tue Aug 3 10:18:07 2021.

What if the whole population(70-80%) were vaccinated? Israel is no longer #1 in vax.

This data is several weeks old. The 60% fully vaccinated figure was correct at that time. Even today, their figure is only 62% fully vaccinated.

The 50% figure for simplifies the math a bit.

# of vaccinated people catching covid = # of unvaccinated catching covid

N * P(covid given vaccinated) * P(vaccinated) = N * P(covid given unvaccinated) * P(unvaccinated)

P(covid given vaccinated)/P(covid given unvaccinated) = P(unvaccinated)/P(vaccinated)

L = P(unvaccinated) - P(vaccinated)

Effectiveness = 1-L = 1 - P(unvaccinated)/P(vaccinated)

for 70%, effectiveness = 57%

for 80%, effectiveness = 75%

Before we decided we love the virus and want to live with it.

Pandemics represent an existential threat. One problem with exponential growth is that drastic/draconian action must be taken before the threat becomes obvious.

So the rest of the world who say masks outdoors are correct?

What's the downside?

I figure that must be the case since dog walkers are almost twice as likely to have caught the alpha variant as people who do not own dogs.

You have more to fear from Fluffy and possibly Bambi. Felines of all species appear to be more at risk. There have been documented instances of Covid being spread by virus shedding from feces. Mask up before cleaning Fluffy's litter box.

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