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| (348987) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 17 11:35:40 2024, in response to Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Apr 15 10:36:38 2024. I am a little confused. Does the decrease in the walk to subway population mean that more will be taking the bus to the subway?Also, I can’t see how the redesign will be an overall benefit with the elimination of so many bus stops. The MTA contends that bus stop elimination will result in faster buses. Yet the average speed is increased by a negligible 0.2 mph. Yet the average increased walking distance to a bus stop is much more significant, over 50%. So how could a 0.2 mph increase in bus speed account for faster trips for the bus passenger when the average passenger must walk 50% more at each end of the trip? Am I seeing this correctly? |
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| (348988) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Apr 17 17:24:15 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 17 11:35:40 2024. It's been quite a while since I wrote and ran this analysis. I'll be fairly busy until the middle of May. Also, the analysis program takes about 24 hours to analyze a single day. The comparison takes about 40 hours of computer time. I'm not anxious to run the program again to give a definitive answer to your questions.Does the decrease in the walk to subway population mean that more will be taking the bus to the subway? There's a difference in the comparison because the redesign data does not include all the Brooklyn data. This means that may be a discrepancy between current and redesign data near the Bklyn-Queens border. What's important is the comparison between the 3 modes (walk-to-subway, bus-to-subway, and hike-to-subway) within each group. I can’t see how the redesign will be an overall benefit Quantizing any benefit is the object of the study. I'm getting screwed. The bus stop on my corner and 1 of 3 bus routes are being eliminated. However, I want to see, if my sacrifice is for the general benefit. I doubt if the MTA's redesign crew has made a quantitative analysis. Yet the average speed is increased by a negligible 0.2 mph. This is a pretty easy computation that does not require the 24 hour calculations. It took a FOIL request to get the source data to make the computation. I can appreciate why they did not advertise this up front. Yet the average increased walking distance to a bus stop is much more significant, over 50%. You are confusing the walking distance from origin/destination-to/from-bus stop with distance between stops along the route. The additional walking distance isn't that great - about 50 feet or about 11 seconds @ 3 mph. N.B. I'm calculating straight line distances. More importantly, bus stops are supposed to be within 1/4 mile (1320 ft) of the trip origin/destination. The distance falls within that threshold. how could a 0.2 mph increase in bus speed account for faster trips for the bus passenger when the average passenger must walk 50% more at each end of the trip? Am I seeing this correctly? That depends on trip distance on the bus. NYC bus trips are among the shortest in the country. This means that comparisons of bus speeds for NYC and other cities are misleading. Overall trip time is what counts. That's a function of: walking time to/from bus stop; wait time for the bus; and bus trip duration. Bus trip duration depends on trip origin and destination. I chose to analyze the trip to subway because I believe that NYC buses are primarily feeders for the subway. This choice has the benefit that it can be calculated from the GTFS data. I have sliced and diced the data by time and location. Some areas come out better. Overall the overall home-to-subway time is increased from 21.52 to 21.65 minutes or 8 seconds. I requested the GTFS schedule at January's MTA meeting. Part of my presentation noted that based on the MTA's information the result would be a decrease of 13 seconds. The difference is good enough for government work, as we used to say when I had a security clearance and tracking missiles. There is a clear unstated benefit for the redesign. There is a yearly net trip-revenue-hours (TRH) reduction of 354K. This translates to a possible yearly savings $80M. I would not spend this paper savings because of the MTA's gross service inefficiency. The question is whether the reduction in TRH would be reflected into a similar figure for VRH and total hours. Two reasons for the MTA's service inefficiency is excess layover time and excess depot travel time, compared to other operators. |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 17 19:29:43 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Apr 17 17:24:15 2024. I don’t follow how could the extra walking distance to and from a bus stop only be an additional 50 feet when the average bus stop spacing is increasing by 443 feet? Doesn’t that mean the added walk is half that or 221 feet, not 50 feet? So instead of 11 seconds, wouldn’t it be like 45 seconds at each end using straight line distances and like a minute using actual distances, assuming someone doesn’t just miss a bus in that minute?At 8.6 mph in 30 minutes you currently travel 4.3 miles. In 15 min, you travel 2.15 miles At 8.8 mph in 30 minutes you will travel 4.4 miles. In 15 min, you travel 2.2 miles. So if the average local bus trip is 2.3 miles, currently an average trip takes 16.04 minutes plus walking and waiting. Under the proposal, an average trip would take 15.68 minutes plus walking and waiting. If we add the extra walk time of 45 seconds at each end, the total is now 17.8 minutes or over two minutes longer. Even if we only add 11 seconds at each end, the total trip time is still greater than at present. So how is wider bus stop spacing beneficial to the passenger? The cut in revenue hours clearly only benefits the MTA and represents a service cut unless the routes are more direct with fewer transfers needed. Judging from the opposition, I doubt this is the case. |
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| (348990) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by Snilcher on Thu Apr 18 01:07:17 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 17 19:29:43 2024. The cut in revenue hours clearly only benefits the MTA and represents a service cut unless the routes are more direct with fewer transfers needed. Judging from the opposition, I doubt this is the case.It in fact was the case with the previous iteration of the Queens bus network redesign. That plan met with much opprobrium, hence the far less radical latest edition of the plan. |
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| (348991) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Thu Apr 18 10:47:12 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Apr 17 17:24:15 2024. If the cut in revenue hours represents a saving of $80 million per year, how does that explain the fact the MTA claims to be spending $30 million more? The only explanation is increased deadheading. How is that a successful redesign? Sounds like more inefficient operations to me. |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by checkmatechamp13 on Mon Apr 22 23:56:22 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 17 19:29:43 2024. Just missing the bus is irrelevant in this calculation. It's balanced out by the times when no bus is coming while you're walking, meaning that the average additional time is the amount of the walk (actually, the amount of the walk, minus the time it takes the bus to travel the same distance).That being said, a quick search of a Q88 trip from Fresh Meadows to Queens Center Mall in the morning rush hour indicates that it will be a few minutes faster (assuming they used a 3 mph walking speed), but the problem is that it doesn't actually give you the breakdown of how much of the travel time is walking vs. riding the bus...it just gives you the overall travel time. But yes, it's very odd that there's a reduction in revenue hours, yet an increase in cost. That would indicate some combination of more layover time, or more more deadheading (possibly due to a higher peak:base ratio...which if anything, most redesigns tend to focus on expanding off-peak service and lowering that ratio). |
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| (348998) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Tue Apr 23 08:22:52 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Mon Apr 22 23:56:22 2024. I think the increased deadhead time is due to increases in restrictions regarding which buses could use which depots. Articulated buses cannot be used in certain depots, neither can electric buses, for example. Also, with restructured routes deadheads might be shorter if MTA Bus Co buses could use NYCT depots and vice versa.Regarding your first assumption regarding increased bus stop spacing having nothing to do with increased waiting time due to missing the bus, you are incorrect because it happens to me about 25 percent of the time. I see that I will miss the bus by walking the extra distance, but I would have had enough time to catch the bus if my old stop were there. In fact, I would have had to wait an additional 20 minutes in the rain if I didn’t see two buses just pass my bus stop, but the second bus stopped for me between stops when I waved him down. I would have made both of them if my old bus stop was still there. Bus Time is also useless being so close to the terminal. It saying 7 minutes plus layover is meaningless since they aren’t telling me the length of the layover. |
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| (349000) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by checkmatechamp13 on Tue Apr 23 21:35:25 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Tue Apr 23 08:22:52 2024. You're not really disproving my point with that...the B1 runs roughly every 10 minutes for most of the day...if your walk is an extra 2 minutes, that means that roughly 20% of the time, you'll miss your bus that you would've otherwise made, and roughly 80% of the time, you'll be walking during a time when no bus is coming, and thus there is no added time to your trip. You're saying that you miss roughly 25% of your buses...so your luck is slightly worse than average... |
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| (349001) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by randyo on Wed Apr 24 03:45:55 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Tue Apr 23 21:35:25 2024. That’s fine on bus lines with frequent service but no good on lines that have extended headways or during off hours on any line when headways can be 20 min or more. |
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| (349002) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 24 09:07:16 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Tue Apr 23 21:35:25 2024. How am I not disproving your point? Doesn’t really matter if it’s 20 or 25 percent where my wait is longer. The point is do the people on the bus save more time than the time I lose for it to make sense to eliminate bus stops? The answer is no, when you talk about eliminating lightly utilized bus stops because the MTA’s contention is that an average of 20 seconds per stop is saved for each removed bus stop, but that assumes that every bus stops at every bus stop. In the cases I am speaking about, a lightly utilized bus stop may have only one out of ten buses stopping at these stops to be removed. So in the vast majority of cases, the question is will the bus stop at bus stop A or bus stop B, resulting in longer walks. Not stopping at bus stop A and B on each trip which is the MTA’s assumption.Specifically for the stop removed we had the MTA count how many people used the stop before it was removed and they told us it was 54 in a 24 hour period when 500 buses were scheduled to stop there and that’s assuming all 54 people used different buses. The amount of time saved by people on the buses is negligible. Even assuming 20 seconds per bus which is way overestimated because of the above in order to save 5 minutes a bus route has to eliminate 18 bus stops, but more like 30 bus stops. Since the average local bus trip is 2.3 miles, the savings is more like two minutes, about equal to the increased walking time. So eliminating massive amounts of bus stops makes no sense at all. Perhaps 5 percent of bus stops can be removed without any nil effects, not 33 percent. |
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| (349003) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by checkmatechamp13 on Wed Apr 24 22:15:24 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 24 09:07:16 2024. I was referring specifically to the concept that "you have to factor in the increased chance of missing your bus" into the calculations for increased travel time. I wasn't making any points specifically for or against eliminating bus stops. |
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| (349004) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Thu Apr 25 12:29:54 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Wed Apr 24 22:15:24 2024. I still do not understand why the increased chance of missing your bus should not be factored in the calculations for increased travel time. You even stated the chance of increased travel time is 20 percent. |
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| (349008) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by checkmatechamp13 on Fri Apr 26 00:15:56 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Thu Apr 25 12:29:54 2024. Because the other 80% of the time, your travel time does not increase at all, because you're walking during the time which you would've otherwise spent waiting for the bus. (And let's be very clear, I was specifically referring to a case where the bus runs every 10 minutes, and the increased walking time is 2 minutes...2 divided by 10 is 0.2, which is 20%).Also, this is of course assuming completely random arrivals. If your bus runs every 60 minutes, you'll most likely time yourself so that you're not missing it by 1 minute (So if your extra walk is 2 minutes, you'll likely leave your home 2 minutes earlier than you would've done so had the original stop still been there). But even then, if you assume random arrivals like in the other example, it still averages out...(2/60 = 0.0333, so you miss the bus 3.33% of the time, and 96.67% of the time, there is no extra time added because you're walking during the time you would've been otherwise waiting). |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by Edwards! on Fri Apr 26 09:42:03 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 24 09:07:16 2024. Absolutely correct.I don't have any issues with the redesign per say... just the way it's being carried out. It's going to hurt more people than it helps. All I see is the MTA doing something like this to benefit Them, and not the riders. Reroutes are needed to address the gaps in connectivity, but proper dispatching, control points along routes would definitely improve service. Also, removing the driver control over the GPS would help. |
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| (349016) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Apr 26 09:49:34 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by Edwards! on Fri Apr 26 09:42:03 2024. Also, removing the driver control over the GPS would help.There's a fundamental hardware problem with the GTFS-RT system that uses the GPS. The transmitter that's installed in each bus knows the vehicle number and geographic position. It does not know its route nor the trip id. This is vital information for tracking system performance. It requires some sort of human or machine input to combine the trip id with the vehicle number. This is done by using pattern recognition of the route profile or shape. It also means the system is SOL, if a bus deviates from its assigned route for any reason. |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by Edwards! on Fri Apr 26 13:29:49 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Apr 26 09:49:34 2024. That clearly explains how much the drivers control the output, monitoring.Buses vanish off GPS all the time, only to show up somewhere else on the route. This has happened several occasions to me personally while waiting for a particular bus route out of Fresh Pond, and another out of JFK. Buses show up on bus time..then vanish off the tracker, and reappear somewhere pass the stop where I'm located.(Basically taking a detour/deviation from the route), increasing wait time. |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Fri Apr 26 15:15:16 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by Edwards! on Fri Apr 26 13:29:49 2024. Buses vanish off GPS all the time, only to show up somewhere else on the route.There is another problem. GTFS-RT position data is updated only when the bus has moved from its previous position. So, if a bus has stopped for a traffic signal, or is at a bus stop, there will be no data transmitted to show its stopped status. The reason for this is to conserve bandwidth. |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Fri Apr 26 21:03:19 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Fri Apr 26 00:15:56 2024. You are making it seem like I said your travel time increases 100% of the time you take the bus because of bus stop removal. I never said anything of the sort. What I did say is that removing bus stops and increasing your walk time increases your chances of missing the bus and increasing your trip time. Whether that happens 20 percent of the time, or three percent of the time, it is still a true statement.The important fact is if removing bus stops helps or hurts more people. I contend it hurts more because the MTA is overestimating the amount of minutes the buses save by assuming all buses stop at every bus stop, which certainly is not the case for underutilized bus stops. They are also not considering the added dwell time to remaining stops when moderately or heavily used stops are eliminated. The average of 20 seconds saved for every bus stop eliminated is an overestimation for these reasons. |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Fri Apr 26 21:06:45 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by Edwards! on Fri Apr 26 09:42:03 2024. I agree with everything you said except the GPS part because unlike Stephen, I don’t know how it works. |
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by checkmatechamp13 on Wed May 1 12:35:48 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Fri Apr 26 21:03:19 2024. As long as it's not being double-counted, that's my only concern. Whether it's an extra 10 minute wait 20% of the time, or an extra 2 minutes on average 100% of the time, the numbers should match.For the 20 second average, I can't say definitively whether they factored that in or not. It wouldn't surprise me if they excluded that, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me if they included that. (Also, with OMNY and all-door boarding, that factors in favor of concentrating the stops a bit more, because you don't have a line of people waiting to swipe a MetroCard at the front door). |
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| (349032) | |
Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by BrooklynBus on Wed May 1 20:44:55 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Wed May 1 12:35:48 2024. The 20 second average is solely based on the acceleration and deceleration time saved by buses not stopping. Ten seconds to decelerate and ten seconds to accelerate. The assumption is that buses stop at every bus stop all the time which of course is not true. They also ignore the increased dwell time at adjacent stops near the skipped stops. The real average might be closer to 10 or 15 seconds depending on the neighborhood. In less dense areas it’s probably ten, in most 15, and in highly dense neighborhoods, 18. |
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