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| Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers (348988) | |||
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Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Apr 17 17:24:15 2024, in response to Re: Queens Bus Redesign - Total Numbers, posted by BrooklynBus on Wed Apr 17 11:35:40 2024. It's been quite a while since I wrote and ran this analysis. I'll be fairly busy until the middle of May. Also, the analysis program takes about 24 hours to analyze a single day. The comparison takes about 40 hours of computer time. I'm not anxious to run the program again to give a definitive answer to your questions.Does the decrease in the walk to subway population mean that more will be taking the bus to the subway? There's a difference in the comparison because the redesign data does not include all the Brooklyn data. This means that may be a discrepancy between current and redesign data near the Bklyn-Queens border. What's important is the comparison between the 3 modes (walk-to-subway, bus-to-subway, and hike-to-subway) within each group. I can’t see how the redesign will be an overall benefit Quantizing any benefit is the object of the study. I'm getting screwed. The bus stop on my corner and 1 of 3 bus routes are being eliminated. However, I want to see, if my sacrifice is for the general benefit. I doubt if the MTA's redesign crew has made a quantitative analysis. Yet the average speed is increased by a negligible 0.2 mph. This is a pretty easy computation that does not require the 24 hour calculations. It took a FOIL request to get the source data to make the computation. I can appreciate why they did not advertise this up front. Yet the average increased walking distance to a bus stop is much more significant, over 50%. You are confusing the walking distance from origin/destination-to/from-bus stop with distance between stops along the route. The additional walking distance isn't that great - about 50 feet or about 11 seconds @ 3 mph. N.B. I'm calculating straight line distances. More importantly, bus stops are supposed to be within 1/4 mile (1320 ft) of the trip origin/destination. The distance falls within that threshold. how could a 0.2 mph increase in bus speed account for faster trips for the bus passenger when the average passenger must walk 50% more at each end of the trip? Am I seeing this correctly? That depends on trip distance on the bus. NYC bus trips are among the shortest in the country. This means that comparisons of bus speeds for NYC and other cities are misleading. Overall trip time is what counts. That's a function of: walking time to/from bus stop; wait time for the bus; and bus trip duration. Bus trip duration depends on trip origin and destination. I chose to analyze the trip to subway because I believe that NYC buses are primarily feeders for the subway. This choice has the benefit that it can be calculated from the GTFS data. I have sliced and diced the data by time and location. Some areas come out better. Overall the overall home-to-subway time is increased from 21.52 to 21.65 minutes or 8 seconds. I requested the GTFS schedule at January's MTA meeting. Part of my presentation noted that based on the MTA's information the result would be a decrease of 13 seconds. The difference is good enough for government work, as we used to say when I had a security clearance and tracking missiles. There is a clear unstated benefit for the redesign. There is a yearly net trip-revenue-hours (TRH) reduction of 354K. This translates to a possible yearly savings $80M. I would not spend this paper savings because of the MTA's gross service inefficiency. The question is whether the reduction in TRH would be reflected into a similar figure for VRH and total hours. Two reasons for the MTA's service inefficiency is excess layover time and excess depot travel time, compared to other operators. |
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