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Hillary Clinton

Posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 10:11:19 2012

fiogf49gjkf0d
is most likely to be the 45th President of the United States, though Mitt Romney is neck and neck with her.

Why?

Obama has a 70% chance of being re-elected.
Obama has a negligible chance of not living out his term.
Clinton has a 75% chance of winning the nomination in 2016.
Clinton has a 2/3 chance of being elected IF she gets the nomination.

Why so high? First, a big part of the 25% chance of her not being nominated is her assessing her chances and deciding a Democrat can't win in 2016. Second, if Mitt loses, next time the Republicans will nominate a real wing nut. Third, Clinton is extremely popular among independents, especially women.

70% x 75% x 2/3 = 35%, slightly edging out Romney's 30%.




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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 10:16:16 2012, in response to Hillary Clinton, posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 10:11:19 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The question is does she want to do it? The answer right now is no. She has stated she wants to work alongside Bill. She certainly has the connections to make the Global Initiative into a powerhouse world-shaping organization.

Could it change, not likely. She'll be 69 in 2016. I doubt she'll be interested.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by SLRT on Sat Aug 18 10:28:44 2012, in response to Hillary Clinton, posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 10:11:19 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Well, just speaking statistically, if any of your individual assumptions fails, the entire proposition fails. So you would need to defend each data point, not to mention the 30% Romney assumption.

Nevertheless, I love Voodoo Statistics. Good going.


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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 10:36:11 2012, in response to Hillary Clinton, posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 10:11:19 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Noooo because Mitt Romney will be the 45th President.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 10:46:55 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by SLRT on Sat Aug 18 10:28:44 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The 30% for Willard is the remainder from the 70% probability the President wins re-election in the fall.

Given that Willard is 65 now and probably won't be interested in running again and will never be President of the United States anywhere in the Presidential progression, how does that figure into the calculation?

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Dan Lawrence on Sat Aug 18 11:13:52 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 10:36:11 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Got a WayBak Machine Steve? You can see the future?

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 11:50:05 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Dan Lawrence on Sat Aug 18 11:13:52 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Stick to cartoons, dandy dan. You're not ready for the adult discussions yet.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Dan Lawrence on Sat Aug 18 11:58:36 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 11:50:05 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
HA! HA!! You and I are probably both children of the postwar baby boom.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 12:03:44 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Dan Lawrence on Sat Aug 18 11:58:36 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Yeah we're likely the same age - similarity ends

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by SLRT on Sat Aug 18 13:21:21 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 10:46:55 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Ask AIM.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 13:23:50 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by SLRT on Sat Aug 18 10:28:44 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Well, just speaking statistically, if any of your individual assumptions fails, the entire proposition fails.

Well, yes. In the 30% event that Mitt wins this year, the rest is irrelevant. That's why I multiply the probabilities. I am saying there's a 65% probability she won't be the 45th President.


This is probability theory, not statistics.



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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 13:25:31 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 10:36:11 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
You can reduce Obama's probability of winning and make Mitt come out ahead of Hillary, sure. But Mitt isn't at 100%.


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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by DAND124 on Sat Aug 18 13:30:33 2012, in response to Hillary Clinton, posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 10:11:19 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
1) you're underestimating Biden's chances of being nominated(the last time a sitting vice president failed to win his party's nomination was 1952)
2) i think Paul Ryan will be the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 13:36:05 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by DAND124 on Sat Aug 18 13:30:33 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Biden is very unlikely to try. He'll be 76 in 2016.


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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 13:43:24 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by DAND124 on Sat Aug 18 13:30:33 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
1) Do we know he wants to go for it? Little early to think about it, IMO.

2) Ryan will be discredited by then, and the demographics shift to the Democrats will be ramping up by then. He won't stand a chance.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Aug 18 13:43:42 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by DAND124 on Sat Aug 18 13:30:33 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Biden's day has come and gone. He's too old as AlM points out, and someone like you, should already know.


(the last time a sitting vice president failed to win his party's nomination was 1952)

America is a much different place today, compared to 1952.


2) i think Paul Ryan will be the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination.

Which may be why Romney picked him. Knowing he'll lose this year, Paul Ryan is being groomed for 2016 when the GOP may have a better chance.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Aug 18 13:44:00 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by DAND124 on Sat Aug 18 13:30:33 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Biden's day has come and gone. He's too old as AlM points out, and someone like you, should already know.


(the last time a sitting vice president failed to win his party's nomination was 1952)

America is a much different place today, compared to 1952.


2) i think Paul Ryan will be the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination.

Which may be why Romney picked him. Knowing he'll lose this year, Paul Ryan is being groomed for 2016 when the GOP may have a better chance.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 13:47:42 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 13:43:24 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Foe a person who had too much to do today to discuss cats and family pets, you seem to have suddenly found some free time. What's your cat's name?

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 13:50:43 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by LuchAAA on Sat Aug 18 13:43:42 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Your #2 is quite possibly plan "B" for the republicans

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Aug 18 13:55:13 2012, in response to Hillary Clinton, posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 10:11:19 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
LuchAAA is probably right.

The Democrats are the party of feminists/minorities/homosexuals/pseudo-intellectuals.

They gave America the "First Black President" and now they're obligated to give America anything but another white male Christian.

"First female". "First Latino". Those sound good. It's all the Democrats have to fire up their base. Race/gender/ethnicity. It's all they have to go on.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Elkeeper on Sat Aug 18 14:44:12 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 10:16:16 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Bill will be "69-ing" forever!!!

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Avid Reader on Sat Aug 18 16:24:01 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Elkeeper on Sat Aug 18 14:44:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Hawwwwwwwwwk-tooooooooie!

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Aug 18 17:01:08 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 13:36:05 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
73. He'd be 74 by the time he'd be inaugurated.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sat Aug 18 17:08:46 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Train Dude on Sat Aug 18 13:50:43 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
That would be fantastic! :)

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 17:10:03 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 13:36:05 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Oops, yes, born Nov 20, 1942.


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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by FYBklyn1959 on Sun Aug 19 19:26:19 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 10:16:16 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Well, the last time a 69 year old ran for POTUS, worked out pretty well for him



How it worked out for the rest of us is up to you to decide. :)



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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by FYBklyn1959 on Sun Aug 19 19:27:12 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sat Aug 18 10:46:55 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
He's that old?!? Thought he was in his 50s.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by bingbong on Sun Aug 19 19:52:38 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by FYBklyn1959 on Sun Aug 19 19:27:12 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Grecian Formula strikes again.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 19 19:55:22 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sun Aug 19 19:52:38 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And what do you use on your hair - Sherwin-williams?

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by bingbong on Sun Aug 19 20:00:19 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 19 19:55:22 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
At least I have hair.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 19 20:04:53 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sun Aug 19 20:00:19 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
But do the drapes match the carpet? Forget that - I really don't need to know that much. Are you saying that Mitt Romney doesn't have hair?

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by bingbong on Sun Aug 19 20:09:58 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 19 20:04:53 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Where di dthat cme from?

I said he dyes his hair. Of couse he has to have hair to dye it. You,not so much.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 19 20:14:08 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by bingbong on Sun Aug 19 20:09:58 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Actually, I have a full head of hair that I prefer to keep short in the summer to facilitate my summer activities. I've also been seen with a beard at times during my life. But now back to you! You commented on Mitt Romney using Grecian Formula as if there were an issue with hair coloring. I asked you what you use. You have yet to answer.

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Re: Hillary Clinton

Posted by bingbong on Sun Aug 19 20:15:35 2012, in response to Re: Hillary Clinton, posted by Train Dude on Sun Aug 19 20:14:08 2012.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I don't use anything.

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