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Hillary Clinton

Posted by AlM on Sat Aug 18 10:11:19 2012

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is most likely to be the 45th President of the United States, though Mitt Romney is neck and neck with her.

Why?

Obama has a 70% chance of being re-elected.
Obama has a negligible chance of not living out his term.
Clinton has a 75% chance of winning the nomination in 2016.
Clinton has a 2/3 chance of being elected IF she gets the nomination.

Why so high? First, a big part of the 25% chance of her not being nominated is her assessing her chances and deciding a Democrat can't win in 2016. Second, if Mitt loses, next time the Republicans will nominate a real wing nut. Third, Clinton is extremely popular among independents, especially women.

70% x 75% x 2/3 = 35%, slightly edging out Romney's 30%.

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