Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.

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Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.
Posted by Bob Andersen on Tue Dec 21 17:16:31 2021 As of Monday, Nassau 12.7%; Suffolk 13.7%. For Nassau, it was 2.08% on 10/28. Here's my opinion: everyone will eventually be affected by omicron in one way or another. The unvaccinated will get their antibodies from catching it while the vaccinated will either get a mild case or just get a bump in their antibodies from being exposed to it. Perhaps then there will be sufficient herd immunity to lessen the effects of future variants. The omicron variant, being less severe but many, many times more contagious, may be just what is needed. Or am I just wishful thinking?
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Posted by AlM* on Tue Dec 21 17:45:19 2021, in response to Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Bob Andersen on Tue Dec 21 17:16:31 2021.* Or am I just wishful thinking? We don't know yet. My plan is to be careful and avoid getting it. I can engage in plenty of economic activity without exposing myself in a dangerous way. For example, I have a dentist appointment tomorrow. I'll go, but safely.
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Posted by LuchAAA* on Tue Dec 21 17:50:01 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by AlM on Tue Dec 21 17:45:19 2021.* Good luck at the dentist. I hope you don't have an cavities.
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.
Posted by Stephen Bauman* on Tue Dec 21 17:58:57 2021, in response to Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Bob Andersen on Tue Dec 21 17:16:31 2021.* As of Monday, Nassau 12.7%; Suffolk 13.7%. For Nassau, it was 2.08% on 10/28. The testing positivity rate is influenced by how many tests are done, with respect to the total population. It's one reason I've monitored the number of positive tests per 100K population. Here are the recent results for Nassau, Suffolk, Queens and Manhattan. LI had more per capita cases than the rest of the metropolitan NY area for quite some time. It's changed only recently. Look at what's happening with Manhattan. You can see what the Omicron doubling rate looks like by the slope of Manhattan's rise. I don't see a similar slope for Nassau or Suffolk just yet. These are 7 day moving averages, which introduce a delay. The reason for taking moving averages is there are uncertainties in reporting. Monday's averages may include earlier tests that were not processed over the weekend. It's the reason, most observers discount single day readings taken during and after a weekend. I expect similar problems with the data for Christmas and New Year's weekends. I don't expect decent data until after New Year's and then after MLK Day.
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Posted by Train Dude* on Tue Dec 21 18:12:15 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 21 17:58:57 2021.* Wait! Why is all this happening. Biden said that he would shut the virus down, not the country. WELL?
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Posted by Bob Andersen* on Tue Dec 21 18:13:36 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 21 17:58:57 2021.* It would look much worse if it wasn't a logarithmic graph.
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.
Posted by Stephen Bauman* on Tue Dec 21 18:40:10 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Bob Andersen on Tue Dec 21 18:13:36 2021.* It would look much worse if it wasn't a logarithmic graph. The choice of a semi-log plot isn't to make the spread look better or worse. It's to show how well it conforms to an exponential growth or decline. An epidemic is an exponential process. 1 person infects 2; these 2 infect 4; these 4 infect 8; etc. Exponential growth will show up as a straight line in semi-log plot. Changes to the process will show up as changes in slope. See how Manhattan changed around Dec 16th and Dec 9th. Eventually, someone will likely identify these data with different percentages of the Omicron variant or something similar that changed the composition of the virus spread.
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.
Posted by Bob Andersen* on Tue Dec 21 18:40:54 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Train Dude on Tue Dec 21 18:12:15 2021.* Why can't you rightists/leftists stop blaming Biden/Trump for every outbreak and new variant of Covid? The worst thing about the pandemic is that it became politicized almost immediately. I put the majority blame on Trump for that, but the Dems are just as guilty. One side will NEVER say the other side has done anything right. EVERYTHING the other side does is wrong With no compromise there will never be any solution.
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Posted by AlM* on Tue Dec 21 19:10:13 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 21 17:58:57 2021.* Have you noticed that there are many places where the curves are not at all linear, or only linear for short periods of time? That suggests that an exponential model suffers from serious shortcomings.
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.
Posted by Stephen Bauman* on Tue Dec 21 19:31:58 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by AlM on Tue Dec 21 19:10:13 2021.* Have you noticed that there are many places where the curves are not at all linear, or only linear for short periods of time? Are you referring to fast moving "oscillations" or occasional longer lasting peaks or valleys on the curve? There's a lot of variability of how the data is collected and recorded. Hospitals and other testers may forget to send a day's worth of data to the county for a few days. The counties may not report corrections to the state. The website aggregator that I use (Johns Hopkins in this instance) may not correct the data. Also, I just download the last day's data and save it locally to cut down on my time. I'll download the whole file every month or so to incorporate any corrections to the daily files. The real world differs from the ideal, when it comes to data collection.
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.
Posted by ntrainride* on Tue Dec 21 20:07:34 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 21 19:31:58 2021.* you cannot petition the lord with prayer. you cannot micromanage a macro trend. perhaps this paraphrased analogy will assist: blind men different parts of the elephant
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Posted by BILLBKLYN* on Tue Dec 21 20:20:19 2021, in response to Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Bob Andersen on Tue Dec 21 17:16:31 2021.* We all need to get it already and let it fade into oblivion.
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Posted by rkba* on Tue Dec 21 20:26:31 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 21 17:58:57 2021.* if you can't dazzle them with details, baffle them with bullshit.
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Posted by Train Dude* on Tue Dec 21 20:29:27 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Bob Andersen on Tue Dec 21 18:40:54 2021.* 2 reasons: The pandemic is over. We are dealing with a mild disease. More people have died in subway violence than the omicron variant has killed in this country Mandates and other infringements on my rights are political.
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Posted by Olog-hai* on Tue Dec 21 20:29:48 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Dec 21 20:20:19 2021.* You know the left will never let that happen. After all, those scenes from Red China where people were dropping dead like flies in the street . . . ‼
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket.
Posted by rkba* on Tue Dec 21 20:30:23 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Bob Andersen on Tue Dec 21 18:40:54 2021.* funny how when donnie was in office, it was okay to blame the president. now that sleepy creepy joe is in, it's either "it's not political" or "both sides."
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket
Posted by Olog-hai* on Tue Dec 21 20:30:38 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Train Dude on Tue Dec 21 20:29:27 2021.* And it's still happening all over the world. On whose orders?
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket
Posted by rkba* on Tue Dec 21 20:31:06 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket, posted by Olog-hai on Tue Dec 21 20:29:48 2021.* amazing how that never seemed to happen in any other country, and nobody questions it.
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Posted by Olog-hai* on Tue Dec 21 20:35:50 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by rkba on Tue Dec 21 20:30:23 2021.* Speaking of that, The New Republic had a recent article making the "case" for suppressing all criticism of Xiden.
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Posted by rkba* on Tue Dec 21 20:39:36 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket, posted by Olog-hai on Tue Dec 21 20:35:50 2021.* imagine fox put out a puff piece like that for trump?
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Posted by Olog-hai* on Tue Dec 21 20:44:09 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket, posted by rkba on Tue Dec 21 20:39:36 2021.* Not even the most dedicated "Trumpists" would be for such a thing. (Lots of fake false-flag secretly on-the-left "Trumpanzees" would, though.)
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Posted by JayZeeBMT* on Wed Dec 22 05:42:01 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Train Dude on Tue Dec 21 20:29:27 2021.* The pandemic is over A Tweet from a FDNY EMS medic who works out of KCH, yesterday afternoon: "The number of cardiac arrests just in BK Central alone today. Every ER on diversion. No ISO rooms available. COVID is back in full force." You really do live in an alternate reality, induced by your own delusions.
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Posted by Alm* on Wed Dec 22 06:47:55 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 05:42:01 2021.* There are more new cases of COVID this week than ever before. Hopefully milder, but still a lot.
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Posted by Fred G* on Wed Dec 22 06:58:27 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 05:42:01 2021.* Yeah it’s not so much that the pandemic is over but they’re just tired of fighting it. Kind of like every other war this country gets into
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Posted by Train Dude* on Wed Dec 22 07:21:28 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 05:42:01 2021.* Well, at least 2 of your circle jerk buddies are behind you
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris* on Wed Dec 22 07:48:46 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Alm on Wed Dec 22 06:47:55 2021.* And also because more people than ever are getting tested.
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Posted by JayZeeBMT* on Wed Dec 22 07:49:00 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Alm on Wed Dec 22 06:47:55 2021.* But...but...but..."it's just a cold"...
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Posted by JayZeeBMT* on Wed Dec 22 07:51:11 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by gp38/r42 chris on Wed Dec 22 07:48:46 2021.* Higher testing rates uncover more positive cases, but what brings people to the ER are severe signs and symptoms, not just a mere positive test result.
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Posted by Train Dude* on Wed Dec 22 07:54:30 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 07:49:00 2021.* Well in could be a stroke
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Posted by Jeff Rosen* on Wed Dec 22 10:09:35 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 05:42:01 2021.* That's only because everyone is panicking over something that's now just like a cold, due to the media.
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Posted by Jeff Rosen* on Wed Dec 22 10:14:46 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 07:49:00 2021.* Hey, there are two facts we know now. Covid will be with us forever Especially with omecron it's very mild So we might as well get back to living our lives normally, like before.
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Posted by AlM* on Wed Dec 22 10:20:55 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed Dec 22 10:14:46 2021.* 2. Except when it isn't.
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Posted by Spider-Pig* on Wed Dec 22 10:24:50 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by AlM on Wed Dec 22 10:20:55 2021.* Like seasonal cold or flu? We didn’t destroy our civilization for that.
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Posted by Stephen Bauman* on Wed Dec 22 10:50:54 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed Dec 22 10:14:46 2021.* we might as well get back to living our lives normally, however short that may be because of Covid. It has already lowered life expectency. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/21/1018590263/u-s-life-expectancy-fell-1-5-years-2020-biggest-drop-since-ww-ii-covid#:~:text=COVID%2D19%20contributed%20to%2074,years%20between%201942%20and%201943.
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Posted by Spider-Pig* on Wed Dec 22 10:52:26 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 22 10:50:54 2021.* You, of all people, should know that life expectancy is a statistic.
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Posted by BILLBKLYN* on Wed Dec 22 11:40:09 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 07:49:00 2021.* It is, for most people.
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Posted by BILLBKLYN* on Wed Dec 22 11:45:10 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 22 10:50:54 2021.* What the hell did they expect for their lousy 35 cents?
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Posted by Stephen Bauman* on Wed Dec 22 11:47:16 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Dec 22 11:40:09 2021.* It is, for most people. There's a problem, if everyone gets a cold at the same time. That's why CityMD has had to close 13 offices.
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Posted by BILLBKLYN* on Wed Dec 22 11:57:52 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 22 11:47:16 2021.* I'm all for Mother Nature doing Her thing.
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim* on Wed Dec 22 11:58:56 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed Dec 22 10:09:35 2021.* Yep. Panic & overreaction are ignoring science. The bottom line here is that as far as we know, if you have been vaxxed & boosted & otherwise generally in good health, its just like a cold. I've had a family (fully vaxxed) member get a "breakthru" dose. She was up on her feet & back to work (with MD approval) in 5 days.
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Posted by AlM* on Wed Dec 22 14:13:19 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Dec 22 10:24:50 2021.* Covid is still far more hazardous than seasonal cold or flu. And who's talking about destroying our civilization, other than maybe Stephen? I'm talking about reasonable precautions, not destroying the economy. I see plenty of people spending lots of money while wearing masks. And restaurants and bars (where mask-wearing is absurd) are doing fine catering to the people willing and able to take the risk of mingling while not wearing a mask.
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Posted by AlM* on Wed Dec 22 14:20:33 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 22 10:50:54 2021.* Speaking as an actuary, the statistics in your link, while technically accurate under a very narrow interpretation, are abysmally done. The stated reduction in life expectancy occurs if the 2020 increases in mortality for each age, which are due to covid, were to continue forever. Yes, that's one way to measure "life expectancy," but it's a terrible way. And yes, the CDC is doing it, but that doesn't mean it's meaningful or informative. And the proof of my assertion is that while pension plans are seeing a moderate one-time actuarial gain due to greater-than-expected mortality in 2020, and they will see another in 2021, the Society of Actuaries in NOT saying, throw out the old mortality tables and use these new ones that incorporate the higher death rates of 2020 and 2021.
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Posted by Spider-Pig* on Wed Dec 22 14:25:46 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by AlM on Wed Dec 22 14:20:33 2021.* You could have started that post by saying “Well, actuary.” I know it doesn’t rhyme, but still.
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Posted by Charles G* on Wed Dec 22 15:33:16 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Tue Dec 21 18:40:10 2021.* An epidemic is an exponential process. I believe you meant to say expodential? Expodentially!
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris* on Wed Dec 22 16:35:16 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 07:51:11 2021.* Yes, but the spike in new positive obviously will be higher than ever as so many more tests than ever
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris* on Wed Dec 22 16:36:45 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Dec 22 07:49:00 2021.* Yes, Omnicron the s very mild
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris* on Wed Dec 22 16:38:20 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed Dec 22 10:09:35 2021.* It's not just the media. The president is pushing the winter of death and darkness. It's an abomination
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris* on Wed Dec 22 16:41:33 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by AlM on Wed Dec 22 10:20:55 2021.* It is for most vaccinated. If you didn't get the shots, that's on you. Leave the rest of us the Fuck alone at this point
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Posted by Train Dude* on Wed Dec 22 17:03:29 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by gp38/r42 chris on Wed Dec 22 16:41:33 2021.* Their Fuhrer demands compliance or suffer the consequences.
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Posted by AlM* on Wed Dec 22 17:18:11 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by gp38/r42 chris on Wed Dec 22 16:41:33 2021.* It is for most vaccinated. But not for the sizeable group who are vaccinated and still get really sick, or die, from covid.
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