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| Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket. (1871175) | |||
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Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket. |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Dec 22 14:20:33 2021, in response to Re: Nassau/Suffolk positivity rates skyrocket., posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed Dec 22 10:50:54 2021. Speaking as an actuary, the statistics in your link, while technically accurate under a very narrow interpretation, are abysmally done.The stated reduction in life expectancy occurs if the 2020 increases in mortality for each age, which are due to covid, were to continue forever. Yes, that's one way to measure "life expectancy," but it's a terrible way. And yes, the CDC is doing it, but that doesn't mean it's meaningful or informative. And the proof of my assertion is that while pension plans are seeing a moderate one-time actuarial gain due to greater-than-expected mortality in 2020, and they will see another in 2021, the Society of Actuaries in NOT saying, throw out the old mortality tables and use these new ones that incorporate the higher death rates of 2020 and 2021. |
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