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| Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today (1382641) | |
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Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Charles G on Mon Jul 25 13:10:20 2016 Well, that's interesting |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 13:30:55 2016, in response to Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Charles G on Mon Jul 25 13:10:20 2016. Electoral-vote has Hillary in a landslide.I'm more inclined to believe them. Very excellent track record. Even here, I think she'll do better in PA than they say. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jul 25 13:33:37 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 13:30:55 2016. LOL!Nate Silver has the best track record. You only like whatever evidence fits your worldview. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by SLRT on Mon Jul 25 13:44:56 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jul 25 13:33:37 2016. Hillary better hope she has a slam-bang convention.Could happen. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 13:48:47 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by SLRT on Mon Jul 25 13:44:56 2016. Compared to trump's dystopia-fest? |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by R2ChinaTown on Mon Jul 25 13:55:17 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 13:30:55 2016. Hillary is on the down escalator. She's sure she's moving but confused about which way |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by SLRT on Mon Jul 25 14:03:21 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 13:48:47 2016. See what the public thinks of 'em both. Trump got quite a boost. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by R30A on Mon Jul 25 14:07:03 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jul 25 13:33:37 2016. My track record here is better than his ;) |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Jul 25 14:16:42 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jul 25 13:33:37 2016. Nate Silver has the best track record. You only like whatever evidence fits your worldview.Nate Silver's own EV forecast has Clinton winning, albeit not as close. Silver only has Trump winning "if the election were held today." If you read his methodology, that weights the latest polls more heavily, calculates more aggressive trendlines, and captures the convention bounce. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jul 25 14:37:42 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Jul 25 14:16:42 2016. IAWTP. I actually read it. But it still makes Trump look better. Although the polls/assessments that make Trump look good are distressing, this isn't a time to rest on our laurels with fantasy. This is a time for realism. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by TerrApin Station on Mon Jul 25 15:19:50 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by R30A on Mon Jul 25 14:07:03 2016. Not according to BBUS... :) |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Mon Jul 25 16:03:58 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jul 25 14:37:42 2016. No, after labor day is. This is the usual punditeria and if you're going to pay attention to all this click bait, you have only yourself to blame. :)But it's a good reminder to get out there and get involved come Labor Day, down to the finale. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Mon Jul 25 17:12:02 2016, in response to Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Charles G on Mon Jul 25 13:10:20 2016. Also false. You misrepresented 538's headline. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Mon Jul 25 17:17:18 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today, posted by AlM on Mon Jul 25 17:12:02 2016. Not to mention that this has been the worst year ever for the pundits. :) |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today |
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Posted by Charles G on Mon Jul 25 17:38:54 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today, posted by AlM on Mon Jul 25 17:12:02 2016. The interesting thing to me is that I believe this is the first time that Trump has been the "more likely" to win, and that Silver's figures also show a considerable tightening of the electoral race. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 17:51:54 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by R2ChinaTown on Mon Jul 25 13:55:17 2016. Hardly. This is only the "convention bounce" and its half of what it should be. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Mon Jul 25 17:56:09 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today, posted by Charles G on Mon Jul 25 17:38:54 2016. It's the first time 538 has shown him as more likely, because they've just started publishing their results a few weeks ago. But he was leading in the polls a few months ago. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 17:57:46 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by SLRT on Mon Jul 25 14:03:21 2016. It's about a point when all are averaged. Much less than the +4 which is the historical average for republicans. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by MTK52983 on Mon Jul 25 18:01:32 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 17:57:46 2016. Since when is +8 less than +4? |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 18:17:37 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would be more likely to win if election held today, posted by AlM on Mon Jul 25 17:56:09 2016. Exactly what polls? Prior to the conventions, Trump led twice in polls, and typically by a point or two. |
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| (1382723) | |
Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 18:25:29 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by MTK52983 on Mon Jul 25 18:01:32 2016. Where did you hear that lie? It's actually almost +2. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by MTK52983 on Mon Jul 25 18:37:26 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 18:25:29 2016. If you look at Real Clear Politics, the polls went from about Clinton +4 or +5 last week to Trump +3 to +4 today. An 8 point bounce. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 19:04:45 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by MTK52983 on Mon Jul 25 18:37:26 2016. That's not how its calculated. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Mon Jul 25 19:09:55 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 19:04:45 2016. Republican math once again. A "bounce" is no longer the upbeat from where you were to where you are, it now includes taking points from the other guy. Gotta love it. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Mon Jul 25 19:10:56 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by MTK52983 on Mon Jul 25 18:37:26 2016. What on earth are you smoking?Trump +0.2 on 7/25/2016, Clinton +3.2 on 7/18/2016 |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jul 25 20:04:30 2016, in response to Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Charles G on Mon Jul 25 13:10:20 2016. #blm and international terrorism hurts dems. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 20:06:24 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jul 25 20:04:30 2016. Stupidity does even more. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Mon Jul 25 21:56:52 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jul 25 20:04:30 2016. Truth. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by R2ChinaTown on Mon Jul 25 22:34:43 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 17:51:54 2016. Average Republican bounce is 4.9% while this one is over 6%.Typical democRATic bounce is 5.9% . we'll see how well crooked Hillary does. As for something being just half of what it should be. I think that it should be kept private between the 2 of you. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Jul 26 04:30:08 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 25 13:30:55 2016. Why can't you accept the truth? I'm SURE the polls are going to sway back and forth between now and November, but the possibility is VERY REAL that Trump can win. Same with the swing states. He did it in the primaries, he can do it in the General too. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 26 08:48:35 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by R2ChinaTown on Mon Jul 25 22:34:43 2016. Selkirk and I are yet to discuss trump's penis. Or yours, which would a very short conversation, and therefore pointless. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 26 10:44:22 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Jul 26 04:30:08 2016. Analysis of who exactly voted in those primaries showed trump did NOT ATTRACT ANYONE outsid of republican base voters that typically didn't do primaries.Nor is he attracting anyone from outside of registered repblicans. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by TonyG on Tue Jul 26 10:49:52 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 26 10:44:22 2016. The best way for Trump to win this year is for disgruntled Bernie supporters to either:a.) Stay Home or b.) Vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein If enough of them do one of the above, Trump is the next President. If they don't, Clinton wins. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 26 11:52:08 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by TonyG on Tue Jul 26 10:49:52 2016. First, it's a minority. Second, he knows he has to stop it. Third, the Buster demographic is modtly young, a low turnout demographic. It would not likely affect anything if they stayed home.The danger is their getting some variety of idea that trump will help them. Nothing is further from the truth than that idea. At best, they'll be alive in four years. It's undestood that we have no idea how a trump regime would handle dissent, but history should have taught many a lesson about the likely situation many Americans will find themselves in. Do bear in mind this is someone who repeatedly has said he want to shut down the internet. Talk about repressing free speech..... See for yourself...... |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Fri Aug 5 14:31:09 2016, in response to Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Charles G on Mon Jul 25 13:10:20 2016. What a difference a week and a half makes...Clinton would have a 92% chance of winning of the election were held today |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 14:37:32 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Fri Aug 5 14:31:09 2016. What scares me (about the American voting public) is that this is all due to two things:- The Democrats put on a well-produced infomercial, while the Republican version was really tacky. - Trump demeaned some ordinary citizens in public, as opposed to his usual habit of demeaning politicians in public and ordinary citizens in private. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Fri Aug 5 14:39:17 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 14:37:32 2016. LOALMHillary should be +20, but sexism. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 14:54:37 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by LuchAAA on Fri Aug 5 14:39:17 2016. Hillary should be +20, but |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Fri Aug 5 15:56:47 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 14:54:37 2016. Actually both. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Aug 5 16:38:37 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Fri Aug 5 15:56:47 2016. Sexism ⊂ Stupidity |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 16:41:03 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Aug 5 16:38:37 2016. Sexism can be rooted in greed too. Smart but unscrupulous people can use sexism to get a greater share of the pie for themselves. That is, smart people sell the concept of sexism to stupid people. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Fri Aug 5 17:08:38 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 14:54:37 2016. Feminists I know say if Hillary was a man, the lead over Trump would be bigger.And yes, an Irish Catholic woman is who said it. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Fri Aug 5 17:56:30 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by TonyG on Tue Jul 26 10:49:52 2016. Actually if disgruntled Bernie + disgruntled Republicans all teamed up and voted Johnson, he could actually win. Not too many (R)s are happy with Trump either.Of course the trump idiots are afraid of Hillary, and the Hillary idiots (including Sanders himself) are afraid of Trump, so they'd like you to think there's no other option. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Aug 5 18:11:02 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Fri Aug 5 17:56:30 2016. There is no other option. Get real. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Fri Aug 5 19:36:15 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Aug 5 16:38:37 2016. Wrong. Lulz. It's history goes back to prehistoric times. Read yer "ancient texts", it's rife with misogyny. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by bingbong on Fri Aug 5 19:38:10 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Fri Aug 5 17:56:30 2016. Johnson and his Libertarians are NOT the solution. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Aug 5 20:07:32 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Fri Aug 5 19:36:15 2016. So misogyny isn't stupid according to you. Strange.And what "ancient texts" are mine, by any chance? Also: KLUTZ! |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Fri Aug 5 20:11:38 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by bingbong on Fri Aug 5 19:36:15 2016. Giving women the vote is finally ruining America and eventually civilization. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 20:12:20 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Fri Aug 5 17:56:30 2016. Actually if disgruntled Bernie + disgruntled Republicans all teamed up and voted Johnson, he could actually win.Most Bernie voters would see their personal agendas forwarded far more effectively by Clinton than by any of the other 3 candidates. Say you don't like big banks. Clinton will support Dodd Frank and work with Congress to fix obvious loopholes in it. Johnson and Trump would try to get it dismantled. Stein would be concentrating on the environment. That is why Bernie is supporting Clinton, too. |
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Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today |
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Posted by AlM on Fri Aug 5 20:19:54 2016, in response to Re: Nate Silver / 538 Blog - Trump would win if election held today, posted by TonyG on Tue Jul 26 10:49:52 2016. Well, the Democratic National Infomercial has persuaded a fair number of Sanderistas that Clinton is not the devil incarnate and that it's OK to vote for her. I find that both reassuring and frightening. Here's hoping they stay bought. |
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