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| Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread (1343482) | |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 12:59:36 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Feb 3 12:39:02 2016. ???The rest of Scandinavia, plus Germany and the Netherlands, have social welfare programs similar to what Sanders is proposing. So what is your point? You can only have comprehensive social welfare programs if you are a small country? |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Feb 3 14:15:25 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Feb 3 12:44:22 2016. Because what works in some small country, won't necessarily come close to working in a country 200X (or fill in the number) the size or population. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Feb 3 14:16:03 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 12:59:36 2016. Again, what may work in a small country like the Netherlands (or fill in a blank) may not work in a much larger country. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 14:25:20 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Feb 3 14:16:03 2016. Why not?Germany is pretty big and has most of the social welfare programs that Sweden has. And Germany has the added burden that it had to absorb a bitterly poor eastern portion 25 years ago. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 14:46:32 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 08:25:44 2016. If the primary were held in OH, PA, IL or CA, on say March 1, how do you think it would go?I'd say roughly Trump 40%, Rubio 35%, Cruz 15%, Others 10%. Yes Trump has a ceiling because so many Republicans hate his guts, but it's a high ceiling. Enough to win primary after primary. Half of the kind of people who voted Cruz in Iowa would vote for Trump in the bluish States. Perhaps more. Add a good chunk of the Carson vote (as his voters look elsewhere). Add that Cruz will do well in the so-called SEC Primary and in Texas and you can see that Rubio is shut out even after Bush, Kasich and Christie drop out. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 14:58:01 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 11:30:47 2016. ...and Germany. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 14:58:14 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 14:46:32 2016. I'd say roughly Trump 40%, Rubio 35%, Cruz 15%, Others 10%.I'd say Trump 25% or less, Cruz 20-25%, and 3rd major candidate (Rubio or one of the governors, whoever is still standing, probably Rubio) 35% or more. The only way Trump or Cruz has a chance is if Rubio and one of the governors stay evenly matched at 20% each in state after state and neither drops out. The pressure is on for mediocre performers to quit. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 15:00:30 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Feb 3 14:16:03 2016. Yeah, stuff like Social Security, Medicare, unemployment compensation, a national highway system and a public education system could never work here like in Sweden.We're too big of a country. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Feb 3 15:01:08 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 14:25:20 2016. We had to absorb a bitterly poor southern portion 151 years ago. And it has held us back economically, politically and socially. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Feb 3 15:08:44 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Feb 3 14:15:25 2016. Or so you say. And 200 times? WTF? |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 15:19:15 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Feb 3 15:01:08 2016. True, but Germany somehow managed to absorb a comparable sized region and still maintain its social welfare programs. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 15:22:24 2016, in response to Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by DANd124 on Mon Feb 1 20:31:35 2016. 860 AM saying Bernie might challenge Iowa count because it's so close. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AEM-7AC #901 on Wed Feb 3 15:26:21 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 08:36:01 2016. Please tell me that was a privately paid for event without tax payer support. I tend to argue that primaries and such should be privately held events with regulation, but no taxpayer support, but I skimmed through that video with no desire to subsidize *that* absurd voting arrangement. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Feb 3 15:30:31 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AEM-7AC #901 on Wed Feb 3 15:26:21 2016. I would be OK with privately-held unsubsidized primaries and caucuses if we had an electoral system that supported more than two parties. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 15:47:10 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 14:58:14 2016. I'd say Trump 25% or lessTrump already got about 25% in Iowa, which is not even his kind of electorate. It's Cruz's. He'll peel off those votes in Northern and Western States. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by bingbong on Wed Feb 3 16:14:38 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 15:22:24 2016. That would be very foolish on his part. Better he move on and save the whining for another day. Like a winner takes all state. Or the convention. Think you have a rumormonger. It is, after all, squawkradio. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by Charles G on Wed Feb 3 16:16:22 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 14:58:14 2016. I roughly agree with your assessment. The question that is not being asked that I would love to see data on is the natural follow up question to "Which candidate do you support?" In a multi-participant race, specifically "if the candidate you support were to drop out, which of the remaining candidates would you support?"I doubt that Cruz supporters become Trump supporters. I equally doubt that Trump supporters become Cruz supporters. Both Cruz and Trump supporters are more likely to become Rubio supporters if their candidate falls. I suspect that in the case of both Cruz and Trump they are currently polling somewhere close to their maximum possible support. If you don't like Ted Cruz already, you aren't going to start liking him tomorrow. Same for Donald Trump. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 16:37:21 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by bingbong on Wed Feb 3 16:14:38 2016. I am trying to find out how much you weigh.I weighed in at 193.2 today. That was after a bowel movement. So if my jeans are 34 I'm guessing body fat of about 18%-20%. No, 860 AM is right that Bernie could ask for a recount. It's the right thing to do in such a close race. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 16:37:55 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by Charles G on Wed Feb 3 16:16:22 2016. I suspect that in the case of both Cruz and Trump they are currently polling somewhere close to their maximum possible support. If you don't like Ted Cruz already, you aren't going to start liking him tomorrow. Same for Donald Trump.Yes that's true. What you are missing is that Cruz's ceiling among Republicans in Northern and West Coast States is 15% at most. It's not a question of voters migrating to a different candidate. It's that they are NOT migrating. Trump's support in those States will be roughly what the polls are showing (roughly 35-40%). The question then becomes turnout. Could Rubio surpass him in those places? Maybe, maybe not but it's not because he or someone else will capture disaffected voters from the other. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by chicagomotorman on Wed Feb 3 16:42:06 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 16:37:21 2016. Tmi |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 16:42:54 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 16:37:55 2016. Trump's support in those States will be roughly what the polls are showing (roughly 35-40%).I will be very surprised if Trump gets over 30% in NH. And as NH goes, so goes VT. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 16:50:33 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 16:42:54 2016. Iowa polls overstated Trump by 8%. The best reason is that people knew his name, and said they'd vote for him, but then when they went to look at what he was really like, a lot of them were repelled.This phenomenon is not unique to Iowa. Expect Trump to underperform by 8%, give or take, in every state. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by mtk52983 on Wed Feb 3 16:51:57 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 16:37:21 2016. No it isn't because the downside of looking like a crybaby will outweigh minimal gains due to how Iowa assigns delegates |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 17:00:03 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by mtk52983 on Wed Feb 3 16:51:57 2016. "crybaby"? Is that what the Dems were when recalling Wisconsin? |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 17:11:43 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by chicagomotorman on Wed Feb 3 16:42:06 2016. how much do you weigh Chicagomotorman?I'm trying to get down to 185. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by chicagomotorman on Wed Feb 3 17:37:32 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 17:11:43 2016. 206 lbs |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by bingbong on Wed Feb 3 17:52:38 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by LuchAAA on Wed Feb 3 16:37:21 2016. I'm not telling. And no, at this point it would just be whiny of Sanders to ask for a recount. And Trump is reportedly saying Cruz committed voter fraud and he wants a recount. That might fend Sanders off. So who's whiny now? |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 18:24:08 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Feb 3 08:46:30 2016. So how come the "deport Hispanics" party has two Hispanics (and a duck) in the lead? Seems rather "liberal" to me. :) |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 18:25:53 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 15:19:15 2016. And upon the merger, East Germany made Mississippi look like Shangri-La. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by chicagomotorman on Wed Feb 3 18:26:23 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 18:24:08 2016. DEPORT ILLEGAL ALIENS. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are legal American citizens. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 18:29:21 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by chicagomotorman on Wed Feb 3 18:26:23 2016. Rubio is an anchor baby. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by chicagomotorman on Wed Feb 3 18:42:17 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 18:29:21 2016. No he is not. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 19:33:35 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by chicagomotorman on Wed Feb 3 18:42:17 2016. https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com/2015/12/27/rubio-is-not-eligible-and-gowdy-knows-it/
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 19:38:10 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 19:33:35 2016. Well, it's good to see the birther nut jobs are nonpartisan. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Wed Feb 3 19:39:49 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 19:33:35 2016. Did his parents come here legally LuchAAA, Alm, or SelkirkTMO? (Didn't I originally answer LuchAAA? Then Aim, Alm, or whatever answered, then SelkirkTMO answered. Who else wants to bud in? |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 19:40:18 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 19:38:10 2016. When having an "adult discussion" with "conservatives," it's always useful to break out the nearest blog from the emergency box. :) |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Feb 3 19:41:16 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 19:33:35 2016. But, but, but, Rubio himself was born in Miami...The sauce for the goose has caught up with the gander...Obama was born in Honolulu, but that didn't stop the birthers then, so QED, it shouldn't stop them now...just saying... |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Feb 3 19:44:17 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Wed Feb 3 19:39:49 2016. I would like to, but I don't actually know the answer. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 19:46:35 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Feb 3 19:41:16 2016. I love the smell of warm, roasted nuts in the morning. Reminds me of JetBlue. :) |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Wed Feb 3 19:54:21 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Feb 3 19:44:17 2016. Winner, and still World Champion, Spider-Pig! |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 19:57:51 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Feb 3 19:41:16 2016. Obama was born in Honolulu, but that didn't stop the birthers then, so QED, it shouldn't stop them now...just saying...No, they're going even more crazy with Rubio. There was a handful of nuts who claimed Hawaii wasn't really a legitimate state, but 99% of birthers said Obama was born in Kenya. It's even crazier with Rubio - they agree he was born in Miami but still call him ineligible. |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by bingbong on Wed Feb 3 20:05:27 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 19:40:18 2016. Breaking out some adults doesn't hurt either..... :-) |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 20:08:18 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 19:57:51 2016. Wait ... hold up! :) DEPORT THEM ALL! (grin) |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 20:10:46 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by bingbong on Wed Feb 3 20:05:27 2016. 
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by italianstallion on Wed Feb 3 20:36:15 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 15:00:30 2016. Excellent post. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by italianstallion on Wed Feb 3 20:43:57 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 15:47:10 2016. Trump has peaked. His loss in IA shows he's a paper tiger. The bloom is off the rose. His numbers will go down. |
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 20:57:33 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by italianstallion on Wed Feb 3 20:43:57 2016. I hope he manages to keep going. For the first time since Perot, politics is sorta interesting. For now anyway. :) |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Feb 3 21:09:16 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 19:57:51 2016. The crazy just keeps on coming!!! |
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Feb 3 21:12:07 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Feb 3 21:09:16 2016. 
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Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Wed Feb 3 21:17:21 2016, in response to Re: Cruz wins Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by JayZeeBMT on Wed Feb 3 21:09:16 2016. But you are the onegat started this topuc |
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