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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread

Posted by SMAZ on Wed Feb 3 14:46:32 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 08:25:44 2016.

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If the primary were held in OH, PA, IL or CA, on say March 1, how do you think it would go?

I'd say roughly Trump 40%, Rubio 35%, Cruz 15%, Others 10%.

Yes Trump has a ceiling because so many Republicans hate his guts, but it's a high ceiling. Enough to win primary after primary.

Half of the kind of people who voted Cruz in Iowa would vote for Trump in the bluish States. Perhaps more. Add a good chunk of the Carson vote (as his voters look elsewhere).

Add that Cruz will do well in the so-called SEC Primary and in Texas and you can see that Rubio is shut out even after Bush, Kasich and Christie drop out.

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