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| Re: Changing Demographics in D.C. (813608) | |||
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Re: Changing Demographics in D.C. |
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Posted by JayMan on Thu Jul 21 18:52:04 2011, in response to Re: Changing Demographics in D.C., posted by LuchAAA on Thu Jul 21 16:30:18 2011. We do know that the white birth rate in the upper class is positive.By positive I assume you mean greater than the replacement value of 2.1 per childbearing woman total fertility rate? We've discussed this Luch. The only evidence I've seen, which is rather old, suggests that the TFR is higher among Whites in red states and then mostly among wealthier ones (presumably because of a higher rate of male breadwinners). It's the middle class whites who drag the overall rate down. Let's do a thought experiment for a second. Differentiating between four classes of Whites, impoverished (Appalachia), working middle, upper middle (high-salary white collar whites) and wealthy, you're saying the upper middle and above are pushing out kids, while the working middle and below are not so much. I would argue that more likely the fertility curve is that it is highest on both ends, and perhaps for different reasons. That is, I suspect that the impoverished and the working poor Whites are reproducing most, as are also the the upper middle class and elites. But this upper class makes up only a tiny percentage of all Whites! Getting exact numbers broken down by race is difficult, but according to this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_class#US_models, the upper middle and "capitalist" class comprise 16% of the population. Even if women in this class are popping out a lot of babies (unless they are popping a whole lot), it probably wouldn't affect the White TFR much. Hence the contribution of the lower classes, which makes up the bulk of Whites, is more important. It's unclear if White fertility is dysgenic or not. We also know that wealthy whites are for the most part marrying wealthy whites. It's harder than ever for whites to marry into money. A rich white man no longer marries his hot secretary. He marries a female doctor or lawyer instead. There in, I think, lies the problem. An affluent man who marries a less high-powered woman can expect to have more children, as she isn't burdened by career and can be a stay-at-home mom. If today, more high-powered men instead marry career-minded women, there will be simply less time for children. |
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