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| Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread (1343801) | |||
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Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Feb 3 02:13:24 2016, in response to Re: Iowa Caucus Results Thread, posted by WillD on Tue Feb 2 22:34:23 2016. I'm not sure why the media is insisting one candidate or another won Iowa, particularly on the Democratic side.What the analysts who aren't oversimplifying mean is that certain candidates' prospects for actually attaining the nomination have been improved by the Iowa results and certain candidates' prospects have been damaged. Iowa is demographically considered one of Sanders' best states. The fact that he broke even there indicates poor prospects for him unless he can change his demographic appeal. Rubio's vote total indicates that he has enough appeal that it's more likely than not that Republican primary voters could coalesce on him as the non-Crump. That enhances his prospects even though he came in third. Trump "loses" dramatically because the results hint that his support is capped at about 25%. The other 75% of Republicans mostly despise him*. You can win some primaries with 25% of the vote but you won't ever get enough delegates. * It's remarkable to note that even Republican primary voters can occasionally have good sense. |
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