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How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Jun 8 16:57:29 2012 First off, let's admit he has one. Right now, he's barely up in OH, VA and NH. He's barely down in FL. But:http://dailycaller.com/2012/06/07/wisconsin-sized-polling-error-could-mask-romney-sweep-of-battleground-states/ Shorter answer, if the state polls are off by only 1 percent either way, it could mean an electoral SWEEP of every "swing state" for either party. In Wisconsin, all but one pollster was off by an average of 3 percent. It's also good to see in print what I've been saying for months: most of these swing states will "swing" in whichever direction the wind blows. Meaning if Romney runs a smart campaign and Obama continues with his "everything's fine" blunders, he could win by an electoral landslide, even if it means just a single percentage change in the popular vote. This also means Romney could lose decisively if things change. Gotta be fair there. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Jun 8 22:53:57 2012, in response to How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Jun 8 16:57:29 2012. Lonesome thread, slow day ... message in a bottle ... :)
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jun 9 09:28:35 2012, in response to How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Jun 8 16:57:29 2012. ???Obama could easily lose OH, VA, FL and therefore the election. But the exit polls in Wisconsin had Obama up by 12%, vs 14% in 2008. No 3% swing will matter there. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jun 9 11:38:47 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by AlM on Sat Jun 9 09:28:35 2012. I don't see Obama losing OH or VA hen all is said and done.IN OH, he need remind everyone that works in the auto industry that Willard would have seen their jobs' demise 4 years ago. VA is blue enough that the northern part of the state, along with women & minorities statewide will pull through for him and he'll squeak through.If SCOTUS turns down ACA he wins FL. Why? The republicans want to turn Medicare into vouchercare, set up state exchanges for seniors to buy insurance (and abandon affordability) and doesn't this sound familiar? Hmmmm. Seniors, unaware that ACA will do no harm to their coverage and actually preserve Medicare, are the biggest opponents of ACA, which is *precisely* what they will get with them. Add to that they won't be dismantling insurance death panels. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Elkeeper on Sat Jun 9 21:17:00 2012, in response to How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Jun 8 16:57:29 2012. Romney, run a smart campaign? With all of his flip-flops and flubs? He's a Latter-Day country clubber with a lot of money in off-shore accounts! I realize that right now they are a dying breed, but give me a moderate Republican- and I would have voted for him! |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jun 9 21:21:06 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by bingbong on Sat Jun 9 11:38:47 2012. Obama is quite capable of losing FL, VA, and OH. All it takes is an EU mess-up that damages the US economy too. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 21:25:14 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by AlM on Sat Jun 9 21:21:06 2012. Florida is The Sixth Borough.I just don't see how Obama can lose this state. VA and OH are more likely. Just look at the 2008 results man. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Elkeeper on Sat Jun 9 21:37:47 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by AlM on Sat Jun 9 21:21:06 2012. Another factor- how badly will the Tea Party mess up the Republican Party? Their no-compromise attitude contributed a lot towards our present do-nothing Congress. Plus, it pissed off a lot of middle road Republicans. A friend of mine in Indiana told me that a lot of moderate Republicans wished that they had voted in the primary. They were shocked when Richard Lugar lost. This country is becoming more and more polarized between the Right and the Left. Just take a look at the last 2 years in Congress. If it continues, nothing will be done for the next 2 years, no matter who gets into the White House in November! |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 21:42:31 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Elkeeper on Sat Jun 9 21:37:47 2012. when did you start posting here? i don't recognize your handle. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Easy on Sat Jun 9 22:06:18 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 21:42:31 2012. He's been here awhile and even posted on subtalk. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jun 9 22:58:44 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Elkeeper on Sat Jun 9 21:37:47 2012. If Willard is in, he'll have to do the party's bidding and sign anything they hand him, no matter how nutty. President Obama is in a much better position to stop the shit, since he would be expected to not sign onto things such as eliminating important services people need to survive or eliminate rights, be they voting or personal freedoms. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jun 9 23:02:06 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 21:25:14 2012. You're neglecting that your governor is violating a Federal court order and is throwing millions of Floridians OFF the voting rolls to ensure they cannot vote in either any remaining primaries or the general election.You don't seem to have a problem with this either. Why is that? |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 23:14:33 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by bingbong on Sat Jun 9 23:02:06 2012. You don't seem to have a problem with this either. Why is that?I didn't even know about it. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Train Dude on Sat Jun 9 23:22:32 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 23:14:33 2012. Yes! In a rare instance, Bing-Bong is absolutely correct. The massive purge of alleged ineligible Florida voters is now up to people. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 23:54:17 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Train Dude on Sat Jun 9 23:22:32 2012. figures they would be in those counties.but Florida is The Sixth Borough of NYC. It ain't going for Romney in 2012. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Train Dude on Sun Jun 10 00:02:26 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 23:54:17 2012. Today is June 10, 2012 or will be in a matter of seconds. There are roughly 5 months until election day. If things continue to progress in Florida as they have, especially along the I4 corridor, I suggest that your predictions will be found to be wrong - totally. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jun 10 08:42:17 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by LuchAAA on Sat Jun 9 23:14:33 2012. "Ignorance of the law is no excuse"This has been all over the media. How can anyone have missed it? |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jun 10 08:46:37 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Train Dude on Sat Jun 9 23:22:32 2012. More like 40,000. They are removing people that they have no right to. There may all of 4 legitimate removals that pass muster with the court, but that is NOT what FL is doing.Given that according to you, there are all of 4 removals, doesn't that throw icewater on the "voter fraud" RW whining? Like there really is *very little* if any "voter fraud? After all, that is the claimed motivation behind this illegal purge. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Train Dude on Sun Jun 10 10:03:44 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by bingbong on Sun Jun 10 08:46:37 2012. Usually the whining about voter fraud comes from your house by your bunk-mate. But we all know that's just bluster. I posted proof of what I claim. Where is your proof? Please don't make me get out the "BULLSHIT BUTTON" today! |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jun 10 10:15:32 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Train Dude on Sun Jun 10 10:03:44 2012. I wouldn't call a blog proof. This is what proof looks like:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/02/us/justice-dept-asks-florida-to-end-voter-purge.html http://articles.boston.com/2012-06-09/news/32143520_1_voter-rolls-purge-integrity-of-florida-elections http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/07/us-usa-voting-florida-idUSBRE85600J20120607 No blogs, no opinion,just actual journalism. I know you can't stand it, since it doesn't play to your twisted sense of the world. |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Train Dude on Sun Jun 10 10:31:35 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by bingbong on Sun Jun 10 10:15:32 2012. I looked at the first of your so-called proofs. It makes some very sweeping generalizations about "potential" illegal voters but says nothing about how many have been denied the right to vote. But what is more interesting is YOUR support for people (who are legally ineligible to vote) to have the right to vote even if they are legally precluded from doing so. Does the rule of law mean anything to you? |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jun 10 10:42:50 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by Train Dude on Sun Jun 10 10:31:35 2012. You're missing the thousands that have a legal right to vote, have registered and yet are being denied same. You are missing the point that a US Court has told Florida to STOP this purge as they are in violation of the (even recently upheld) Voting Rights Act. FL is one of the states that MUST submit to Federal supervision of voter-related activities. Their 48-hour deadline for new registrations submissions has also been overturned. They are acting illegally here.THAT is the issue, not that 56 people have been found to be erroneously registered. All FL needs do is submit their proof the Justice Department and wait for approval to remove those 56 voters from the rolls. They cannot do anything beyond that, in compliance with the law. What they are doing is illegal. Don't you get that? |
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Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage? |
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Posted by Train Dude on Sun Jun 10 10:48:11 2012, in response to Re: How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?, posted by bingbong on Sun Jun 10 10:42:50 2012. No and the Slimes article didn't say that thousands are being denied the right to vote. It said that thousands were apparently registered illegally. They have time to correct their status if they want to vote. That is, if they truly are just improperly registered. |
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