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How tenous is Obama's polling advantage?

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Jun 8 16:57:29 2012

First off, let's admit he has one. Right now, he's barely up in OH, VA and NH. He's barely down in FL. But:


Shorter answer, if the state polls are off by only 1 percent either way, it could mean an electoral SWEEP of every "swing state" for either party. In Wisconsin, all but one pollster was off by an average of 3 percent.

It's also good to see in print what I've been saying for months: most of these swing states will "swing" in whichever direction the wind blows. Meaning if Romney runs a smart campaign and Obama continues with his "everything's fine" blunders, he could win by an electoral landslide, even if it means just a single percentage change in the popular vote.

This also means Romney could lose decisively if things change. Gotta be fair there.


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