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(935919)

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Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 09:47:19 2012

Fox News Poll this morning of likely independent voters.

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(935927)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 10:17:11 2012, in response to Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 09:47:19 2012.

Independent voters from where? I could see results like that in some parts of the country, but without a broad sample (doubtful given the source) such polling is inaccurate at best.

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(935938)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Apr 26 10:47:53 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 10:17:11 2012.

LOL.

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(935942)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 10:52:43 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 10:17:11 2012.

Independent voters from where? I could see results like that in some parts of the country, but without a broad sample (doubtful given the source) such polling is inaccurate at best.

155 nationally, margin of error 8%.

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(G00GLE)

Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%


(935947)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Dave on Thu Apr 26 11:11:21 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 10:52:43 2012.

A sample size of 155? They really knocked themselves out on that one, didn't they?

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(935960)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 11:35:07 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Dave on Thu Apr 26 11:11:21 2012.

A sample size of 155? They really knocked themselves out on that one, didn't they?

The sample size was 915, 155 of which identified as independents.

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(935963)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Dave on Thu Apr 26 11:57:15 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 11:35:07 2012.

Thanks. Still, a very small sample.

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(935966)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 12:00:24 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 10:52:43 2012.

From what part of the nation? Faux typically slants towards the south. Places like rural southern states and Texas could produce results like this (especially if also slanted to males). How many of these 155 (what kind of a sample is THAT???) are from east-west coastal regions? Probably none, since that's not their audience. Ailes is likely attempting to calm an unhappy party (like Rmoney's a "centrist"...ha!) and get them to vote in November by convincing them it's ok to support Rmoney with ginned up polls like this.

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(935974)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Concourse Express on Thu Apr 26 12:13:55 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 10:52:43 2012.

155 nationally, margin of error 8%.

With a margin of error of 8%, the respective confidence intervals for Romney and Obama are:

Romney: (0.38, 0.54)
Obama: (0.23, 0.39)

So there exists a set of outcomes where Obama beats Romney; that, combined with the remaining 23% of the sample who were presumably undecided, shows there's insufficient evidence at whatever the level of significance was for this poll that Romney beats Obama.

my blog

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(935993)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Thu Apr 26 12:49:09 2012, in response to Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 09:47:19 2012.

Already linked to it, but yeah, Obama isn't winning indies this time around. Romney has to win by 7-9 points to lock up the win, though.

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(936015)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 13:38:26 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Thu Apr 26 12:49:09 2012.

The only conclusion that can be drawn from that survey is that they used an insufficient sample. There's no geographic detail.

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(936019)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 13:47:52 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 12:00:24 2012.

From what part of the nation? Faux typically slants towards the south. Places like rural southern states and Texas could produce results like this (especially if also slanted to males). How many of these 155 (what kind of a sample is THAT???) are from east-west coastal regions? Probably none, since that's not their audience. Ailes is likely attempting to calm an unhappy party (like Rmoney's a "centrist"...ha!) and get them to vote in November by convincing them it's ok to support Rmoney with ginned up polls like this.

It was a random telephone poll conducted by Anderson Robins Research and Shaw & Co. The demographics of the sample have nothing to do with Fox's audience. Besides, except for Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, the coastal regions don't matter.

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(936024)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 13:56:35 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 13:47:52 2012.

Way too often the polls Faux reports on are conducted in rural/suburban Georgia. That's why I ask.

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(936088)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 16:58:05 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 13:38:26 2012.

Well, are you promising to leave the country again if this election doesn't go your way? I have some really nice cardboard boxes that you can borrow.

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(936094)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 17:04:49 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 16:58:05 2012.

If I was to leave the country you'd never see those boxes again. Since you say they're so nice,why not keep them for your next retirement home? Considering the Rmoney economic plan, you're likely to need them. More so than I.

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(936097)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 17:08:28 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 17:04:49 2012.

Unless there is another flood up there. Then you might need 2 nice refrigerator boxes to live in.

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(936112)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 17:58:20 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 17:08:28 2012.

Considering how well republicans run FEMA, perhaps.

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(936131)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Apr 26 18:41:24 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Apr 26 10:52:43 2012.

Hahahaha ...

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(936142)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:02:28 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 17:58:20 2012.

Well considering how liberals wait for government to do everything for them instead of taking care of yourself, perhaps you learned a lesson.

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(936146)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:09:34 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:02:28 2012.

Hardly. We didn't file for assistance. We took care of ourselves on our own. I doubt you'd be capable og handling a situation like ours, Metro-NYers may talk tough, but they're whiny and incompetent when the shit comes down.

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(936148)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:14:46 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:09:34 2012.

Sure sounded like the prole you married, whined and carried on and blamed every republican that he could. Perhaps he didn't get the memo?

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(936152)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:20:53 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:14:46 2012.

Wasn't ever without reason.

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(936153)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:24:58 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:20:53 2012.

Yes, the angelic democrats all wanted to do the right thing and the evil republicans wanted your house to be washed away. Why are democrats, the predominant party in NY, not viewed as complicit in your situation? Why is it that you just can't face the reality of the situation?

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(936157)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:33:50 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:24:58 2012.

FEMA is Federal. Don't you know that....oh yeah, that's one of the agencies republicans eviscerate anytime they have the chance.

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(936166)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Apr 26 19:45:32 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:14:46 2012.

Heh. Yeah, but Bruno got to see the inside of prison after all. :)

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(936167)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:45:37 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:33:50 2012.

hahahahha - exactly what I said - but obama was president when your house was washed away - don't you remember that?

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(936176)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:54:23 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 19:45:37 2012.

No. Probably since oUr house wasn't washed away.

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(936178)

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Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 20:02:17 2012, in response to Re: Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 19:54:23 2012.

I'm surprised that you didn't fix it all since you are a liberal superhero.

Or was your man covering for you that day.






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(936215)

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Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 21:59:40 2012, in response to Romney 46% - Obama 31%, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 09:47:19 2012.

Percentages are great, but the electoral college elects the President.



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(936217)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Italianstallion on Thu Apr 26 22:14:12 2012, in response to Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 21:59:40 2012.

Excellent map.

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(936222)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 22:24:11 2012, in response to Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 21:59:40 2012.

Very pretty map. If it turns out to be true then selschmuck and seldouche and the other extremists have nothing to worry about.

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(936225)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 22:29:13 2012, in response to Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 21:59:40 2012.

Then again








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(936226)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by DAND124 on Thu Apr 26 22:44:24 2012, in response to Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 21:59:40 2012.

Obama has no chance of winning S. Carolina.

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(936236)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 23:36:15 2012, in response to Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 21:59:40 2012.

That's looking even weaker for Rmoney than I thought.....what I've seen puts SD, TX, GA, KY, and TN red.

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(936238)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by LuchAAA on Thu Apr 26 23:37:02 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by DAND124 on Thu Apr 26 22:44:24 2012.

There are more black voters in South Carolina than North Carolina so why can't Obama win South Carolina? I'll guess it's because NC has a larger white liberal base in the Triangle and big cities while whites in South Carolina are more likely to be hardcore Republicans?

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(936240)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 23:38:10 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 22:29:13 2012.

Meh. That's one meaningless map.

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(936243)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 23:41:30 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by LuchAAA on Thu Apr 26 23:37:02 2012.

There are more black voters in South Carolina than North Carolina

As a percentage maybe. Overall no way.

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(936245)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by LuchAAA on Thu Apr 26 23:44:51 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 23:41:30 2012.

As a percentage maybe. Overall no way.

That's what I meant. Blacks are a bigger percentage in South Carolina. So why can't Obama win SC? Is it because of the lack of white liberals as compared to NC?

I really believe that the Rev Wright ads in NC and Duke Lacrosse case were instrumental in driving the huge turnout for Obama there.


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(936247)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Apr 26 23:47:25 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 23:36:15 2012.

It's Rove ... stirring the pot. Six months out from an election, what good are polls anyway?

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(936249)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 23:48:30 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Apr 26 23:47:25 2012.

Agreed.

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(936250)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 23:48:41 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Apr 26 23:47:25 2012.

Agreed.

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(936252)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 23:49:55 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by LuchAAA on Thu Apr 26 23:44:51 2012.

I think that NC is in fact more progressive than SC. Or at least it used to be. Plus it probably has more educated yankees that moved down from the NE and midwest.

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(936253)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by LuchAAA on Thu Apr 26 23:50:55 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Apr 26 23:47:25 2012.

honestly, looking at the electoral map is fine, even now. it's those stupid national gallup and rasmussen national polls I can't stand.

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(936254)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Train Dude on Thu Apr 26 23:53:41 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 23:38:10 2012.

Of course it is. It shows a result you do not want. Where in Canada are you moving?

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(936260)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Apr 27 00:30:53 2012, in response to Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Easy on Thu Apr 26 21:59:40 2012.

Romney will win every singly yellow state plus Ohio. This is Rove trying to shake down GOP donors with fears that he's gonna lose if they don't do something. No one, and I mean no one takes this seriously.

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(936262)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Apr 27 00:31:53 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Apr 27 00:30:53 2012.

I has faith republicans will ... once they change their drawers. :)

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(936263)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Apr 27 00:37:09 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 26 23:38:10 2012.

Both maps are misleading. But Rove's is hysterically eyoorish. South Carolina in play? His map includes "leaners", which can be misleading because the term has absolutely no accepted definition. As for the map TD linked to, it's also very optimistic. Only a Romney landslide would flip both PA and OR red.



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(936264)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Apr 27 00:38:11 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Apr 27 00:31:53 2012.

Rove overdid it. Had he not put SC in play, MAYBE some on the right panic.

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(936270)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Apr 27 00:46:31 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Apr 27 00:38:11 2012.

It's Rove ... :)


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(936279)

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Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93

Posted by Train Dude on Fri Apr 27 01:41:57 2012, in response to Re: Karl Rove electoral map Obama 220 Romney 93, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Fri Apr 27 00:37:09 2012.

PA could easily go for Romney with jobs and clean coal energy the two issues that tip the scales.

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