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| Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) (467780) | |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 11:23:39 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 11:16:09 2009. There is nothing lying about the 30% numbers I posted either. I posted that to prove a point (first of all, which I already said), that if you don't have or give all the information, you can skew statistics any way you want. It wasn't a lie in the least. The numbers given are accurate, just not giving "all the information", which is the same thing the posts I was responding to were doing. THAT is why I did it, and it's no different than what the others were doing. The only different is I did it to prove a point (which I admitted), the others were doing it to pass as fact, either intentionally or unintentionally. I tend to believe the latter, that it was done unintentionally, but done just the same. |
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| (469078) | |
Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 11:24:35 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 11:16:09 2009. And people here who post statistics to try and prove that "most of the country approves of Obama's healthcare", or "approve with the way the country is headed".That doesn't mean policy will be made or elected officials will be deposed based on the results of those polls; i.e., they don't matter. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 11:27:27 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 11:22:37 2009. Correct. But unfortunately, they didn't put that information in their article, and how many people are going to go through 11 pages of questions.....the VAST majority are just going to read the article and take it as fact, and that is WRONG. The "fact" is based on a flawed sample and poll. Look at the people here alone that were trying to passd this article off as fact, and none of the people here have been able to come up with a good explanation for the flaw in the sample. The best I got was "Oh, people don't remember who they voted for, especially when it's the candidate that lost". Please. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 11:28:35 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 11:24:35 2009. Oh I agree. Who said it goes further than the debates like we are having? |
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| (469097) | |
Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 11:45:05 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 11:27:27 2009. Correct. But unfortunately, they didn't put that information in their article, and how many people are going to go through 11 pages of questions.....the VAST majority are just going to read the article and take it as fact, and that is WRONG. The "fact" is based on a flawed sample and poll. Look at the people here alone that were trying to passd this article off as fact, and none of the people here have been able to come up with a good explanation for the flaw in the sample. The best I got was "Oh, people don't remember who they voted for, especially when it's the candidate that lost". Please.There is a link to the source data right in the article. The Times can't be accused of hiding anything, because they're not hiding anything. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 13:12:00 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 11:45:05 2009. I didn't say they were. But you forgot to address the part of my post where I said that most people aren't going to read through 11 pages of a poll and then realize the sample was tainted. They are just going to read the actual story, and take it at face value. The people (including you) that linked to the times article as an absolution to say that "most americans support the health care plan" based on the ARTICLE the Times printed. Doesn't change the fact that the sample is flawed. |
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| (469114) | |
Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 13:41:20 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 13:12:00 2009. I didn't say they were. But you forgot to address the part of my post where I said that most people aren't going to read through 11 pages of a poll and then realize the sample was tainted. They are just going to read the actual story, and take it at face value. The people (including you) that linked to the times article as an absolution to say that "most americans support the health care plan" based on the ARTICLE the Times printed. Doesn't change the fact that the sample is flawed.I didn't even know about the poll until it was linked here. I can't speak for others but I never take a poll at face value and generally only trust a poll if polls from several other sources yield similar results. As you're insinuating, polls are really only good for generating sensational headlines and little else. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 13:48:55 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 13:41:20 2009. Well then we agree. Unfortunately, many people (such as SMAZ) think they really mean something. He's the one that brought it up as a way to "prove" that the country wants this exorbitant health care thing, by saying 78% (or whatever the number) wants this thing.And you jumped right up to bat to "help with the links" of that flawed article. |
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| (469124) | |
Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 14:00:25 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 13:48:55 2009. Well then we agree. Unfortunately, many people (such as SMAZ) think they really mean something. He's the one that brought it up as a way to "prove" that the country wants this exorbitant health care thing, by saying 78% (or whatever the number) wants this thing.And you jumped right up to bat to "help with the links" of that flawed article. It was a big number that would probably still be big if the McCain voters were weighted more greatly. I don't think it "proves" anything, but it suggests that health care reform is not universally derided. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 14:13:47 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 14:00:25 2009. It was a big number that would probably still be big if the McCain voters were weighted more greatly.Well we don't wouldn't actually know, as the sample was flawed. |
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| (469143) | |
Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 15:38:50 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 14:13:47 2009. Well we don't wouldn't actually know, as the sample was flawed.It's relatively simple math. In the poll, 40% of respondents (361) voted for Obama, 21% (188) voted for McCain, and the rest (346) voted for someone else, refused to answer, or aren't registered. Let's call these people "other." In the general election, the split was 53% Obama, 46% McCain, and 1% other. The article breaks down the responses based on party affiliation, so let's say all the "Democrats" are Obama supporters, all the "Republicans" are McCain supporters, and all the "Independents" are "other." So out of 361 "Democrats": 87% favor = 314 9% oppose = 32 4% don't know = 15 Out of 188 "Republicans": 50% favor = 94 39% oppose = 73 11% don't know = 21 Out of 346 "Independents": 73% favor = 254 22% oppose = 77 4% oppose = 15 If the sample was broken down according to the 2008 election results, it should be 474 "Democrats," 412 "Republicans," and 9 "Independents." Weighing this sample, each "Democrat" response counts as 1.313 responses, each "Republican" response counts as 2.192 responses, and each "Independent" response counts for 0.026 responses. Favor: (314 x 1.313) + (94 x 2.192) + (254 x 0.026) = 625 = 70% Oppose: (32 x 1.313) + (73 x 2.192) + (77 x 0.026) = 204 = 23% Don't Know: (15 x 1.313) + (21 x 2.192) + (15 x 0.026) = 62 = 7% Not too far off from the actual poll. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by SMAZ on Thu Jul 2 22:48:22 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 15:38:50 2009. Great work! |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by SMAZ on Thu Jul 2 23:29:06 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 11:28:35 2009. Oh I agree. Who said it goes further than the debates like we are having?59% of Americans believe that it goes further then the debates like we are having. ;-> |
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| (469331) | |
Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 23:57:28 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Thu Jul 2 15:38:50 2009. Another major flaw in your particular analysis is assuming that all the Democrats are "Obama" supporters or more so that all Republicans are "mc Cain suporters. The election would beg to differ, especially when considering a lot of Republicans voted for Obama in Nov.Furthermore, many "Independents" also voted for Obama, you can't make it as simple a split as you are tying to make it in you analysis. You are also forgetting that the percentage of people that "didn't vote" in the flawed NY Times sample also weren't included in the original 52% Obama, and 47% McCain election results. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by SMAZ on Fri Jul 3 00:16:37 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Jul 2 23:57:28 2009. In that case he would get even a higher % in support of Obama's policies since slightly more Republicans voted for Obama then Democrats for McCain. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by italianstallion on Fri Jul 3 00:19:11 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by SMAZ on Fri Jul 3 00:16:37 2009. Chris blew it. |
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Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?) |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Jul 3 00:24:49 2009, in response to Re: The President Shows His Compassion (and maybe something else?), posted by SMAZ on Fri Jul 3 00:16:37 2009. No, that is not the case at all, just because they voted for Obama, doesn't mean they dropped all their conservative ideas. There are many reasons they may not have voted for McCain. So it would be quite the opposite. |
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