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1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 17:52:11 2022 The US passed 1 million confirmed Covid deaths yesterday (17 May 2022), according to the Johns Hopkins University dashboard. Yesterday's official cumulative total was 1,000,189. There is no end in sight because the virus has been ahead of our measures to contain and destroy it. The transition from pandemic to endemic does not offer much hope.Here's a link and the text of an Yahoo article that describes the situation as many now see the immediate and distant future. Those with short attention spans beware; it's described as an 11 minute read. That's less time it takes to acquire a Covid Omicron re-infection. https://news.yahoo.com/future-covid-variants-will-likely-reinfect-us-multiple-times-a-year-experts-say-unless-we-invest-in-new-vaccines-121959797.html Yahoo News Future COVID variants will likely reinfect us multiple times a year, experts say — unless we invest in new vaccines For more than a year now, the original COVID-19 vaccines have held up remarkably well — even miraculously so — against a Greek alphabet of new variants: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta. But now experts say something is changing. Since the start of 2022, the initial version of Omicron, known as BA.1, has been spinning off new sublineages — BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, BA.5 — at an alarming pace. Earlier variants did this too. But it never really mattered, because their offshoots “had no functional consequence,” according to Eric Topol, founder of Scripps Research Translational Institute. “They did not increase transmissibility or pathogenicity.” Today’s rapidly proliferating Omicron mutants are different, however. They all have one worrisome trait in common: They’re getting better and better at sidestepping immunity and sickening people who were previously shielded by vaccination or prior infection. The virus, in other words, is now evolving faster — and in a more consequential way — than ever before. Given the increasing speed of immune evasion, and what this pattern portends for the future, experts warn that the time has come to rethink our reliance on the vaccine status quo and double down on next-generation vaccines that can actually stop infection. “As difficult [as] it is to mentally confront, we must plan on something worse than Omicron in the months ahead,” Topol wrote on May 15. “We absolutely need an aggressive stance to get ahead of the virus — for the first time since the pandemic began — instead of surrendering.” The brewing storm of BA sublineages isn’t all bad news. COVID cases have been rising nationwide since the beginning of April, nearly quadrupling over the last six weeks to more than 90,000 per day on average. Yet both COVID deaths (about 300 per day) and ICU patients (about 2,000 total) are still at or approaching record lows — even though other countries with bigger gaps in previous exposure or vaccination have been hit hard, and even though new research shows that Omicron and its spinoffs are not, in fact, intrinsically less severe or deadly than prior variants, contrary to early assumptions. Clearly, existing immunity is still valuable. Along with new therapeutics like Paxlovid, it’s the major factor that makes 2022 different, and much less deadly, than 2021 or 2020. A skeptic might say that’s all that matters. A low rate of death and severe disease? Mission accomplished, the argument goes. COVID really is no worse than the flu now. Americans are right to unmask and return to normal. The problem with this approach is that it ignores the virus’s new direction — and what science can do to redirect it. It succumbs to a complacency that could, in time, become deadly itself. Just a few months ago, it was possible to believe COVID was running out of steam. Fresh off a massive winter BA.1 wave, the world was flooded with new antibodies, which seemed to slow the next version of Omicron, BA.2, to a crawl. It felt like the beginning of the end: the first big step toward endemicity, or a less dangerous, disruptive and predictable coexistence with COVID. Like the flu. But the near-simultaneous — and near-immediate — emergence of BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 has upended those expectations. All three strains share several mutations with BA.2, but they also boast additional alterations in a key amino acid called L452, which may help explain why all three dodge immunity so well. As Gretchen Vogel of Science magazine explained in a recent story titled “New versions of Omicron are masters of immune evasion,” “L452 is part of the receptor-binding domain, the part of the spike protein that locks onto cells, enabling infection. The domain is also a key target for protective antibodies.” The disturbing thing about these L452 mutations is that they didn’t happen to just one strain in one place. They occurred in at least four different sublineages in four different countries, all at the same time: Belgium, France, South Africa and the U.S. (specifically New York). This strongly suggests that the mutations weren’t random, but rather a Darwinian adaptation meant to help the virus sidestep the very thing that seemed to be keeping cases low in the first place: the huge amounts of Omicron immunity generated over the winter. “The independent appearance of four different mutations at the same site? That’s not normal,” immunologist Yunlong Richard Cao of Peking University told Science magazine. Already, Omicron and its descendants “should be called SARS-3,” added Linfa Wang, a bat coronavirus researcher at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore — an entirely distinct virus. And the fact that the virus responded this way once suggests that it can keep responding the same way in the future. “We can be certain that [future variants will] continue to be more and more capable of immune escape,” explained Kristian Andersen, who studies viral evolution at Scripps Research. This new trajectory toward immune escape — with little pause for a breather after a big wave — isn’t a return to square one. But it’s risky for several reasons. For most of the pandemic, a previous infection provided real protection against reinfection, even by a different variant. Yet initial studies indicate that there’s little cross-immunity between BA.1 and BA.2.12.1, BA.4 or BA.5 — meaning that “those infected with the first Omicron variant” are already “reporting second infections with the newer versions of the variant” just a few months later, according to the New York Times. In turn, “those people may go on to have third or fourth infections, even within this year.” “It seems likely to me that that’s going to sort of be a long-term pattern,” Juliet Pulliam, an epidemiologist at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, told the New York Times. Needless to say, getting infected multiple times a year with a virus that has the potential to cause a host of other health problems — including “long COVID” in roughly 10% of those it infects — is not optimal. Combine frequent reinfections with rising breakthrough cases, meanwhile, and the virus’s overall burden on society will soar — both in terms of sick days at work and school and the threat of more serious outcomes, including death. Even now, Omicron and its descendants aren’t just evading immunity against infection (even shortly after a booster shot). They’re showing they can erode at least some protection against severe illness as well. “A major misconception is that the vaccines are holding steady to protect against severe disease, hospitalizations, and deaths,” Topol wrote Monday in the Guardian. “They are not. When a booster was given during the Delta wave, it fully restored protection against these outcomes, to the level of 95% effectiveness. But for Omicron, with a booster (or second booster) the protection was approximately 80%. While still high, [that] represents a major, fourfold” rise in ineffectiveness, from 5% to 20%. Extrapolate this fourfold reduction in protection to the entire U.S. population — roughly 70% of which is unboosted, including 20 million seniors — and it means more tragic outcomes, especially if COVID is allowed to spread unchecked. In Massachusetts, one of America’s most vaccinated states, hospitalizations are up 56% over the last two weeks — which is when BA.2.12.1 overtook BA.2 to become dominant. ICU numbers are up 97%. Finally, the more the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to develop more dangerous properties. “It’s overly optimistic to think we’ll be done when Omicron variants run their course,” Topol explained. “Not only are they providing further seeding grounds for more variants of concern, but that path is further facilitated by tens of millions of immunocompromised people around the world, multiple and massive animal reservoirs, and increased frequency of recombinants — the hybrid versions of the virus that we are seeing from co-infections.” “Every single time we think we’re through this, every single time we think we have the upper hand, the virus pulls a trick on us,” Andersen added. “The way to get it under control is not ‘Let’s all get infected a few times a year and then hope for the best.’” So what is the way forward? Not what the U.S. is doing now, experts insist. Currently, there’s only one new vaccine in the regulatory hopper: an Omicron booster based on the BA.1 variant, which is up for approval this summer. Yet BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 may have already rendered it obsolete — a mismatch that will become only more pronounced as the virus continues to evolve. Then there’s Congress, which has refused to approve the Biden administration’s request for $10 billion in new COVID funding. As a result, the White House is now preparing to ration the forthcoming Omicron booster, according to Politico. Unfortunately, America is getting it backward here. Instead of spending less on behind-the-curve shots, the U.S. should be spending more to get ahead of the virus. How? By investing in next-generation vaccines that can stop new variants from dodging our immune defenses. One promising path is a nasal vaccine — a simple spray that would “enter the mucus layer inside the nose and help the body make antibodies that capture the virus before it even has a chance to attach to people’s cells,” according to Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunobiology at Yale School of Medicine whose team has been developing just such a vaccine. “We have shown in animal studies that we can spray the virus’s so-called spike proteins into the nose in a previously vaccinated host and significantly reduce infection in the nose and lungs as well as provide protection against disease and death,” Iwasaki wrote in a New York Times op-ed. “Using the nasal spray as a booster — potentially over the counter — every four to six months may make the most sense for this pandemic.” The second major avenue would be a variant-proof vaccine based on the many neutralizing antibodies that scientists have discovered since the start of the pandemic, which “have a high likelihood of protecting against any future variant,” according to Topol. “Such vaccines are clearly in our reach, but the lack of investment in a high priority and velocity initiative is holding us back,” he has explained. Three nasal vaccines are in late-stage clinical trials; four variant-proof vaccines recently started trials too. They could be used in concert: the latter for the initial doses, the former as boosters. But there’s been no Operation Warp Speed for any of them — and federal COVID funding is about to run out. Given how fast the virus is changing, Topol and others say it’s time for that to change too. The immune protection many Americans were relying on when they removed their masks and returned to normal isn’t what it used to be. So unless they’re fine with getting repeatedly reinfected — and spreading the virus to other, more vulnerable friends and family members — next-generation vaccines are starting to look like the smartest exit strategy. “We need to focus on broadening our immunity, [and] we really, really need to get going,” Andersen told Science magazine. “Simply letting the virus do what viruses do — continue to infect us, and likely several times a year — just isn’t an option in my playbook.” |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by chicagoMotorman on Wed May 18 19:16:02 2022, in response to 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 17:52:11 2022. 
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Wed May 18 19:26:01 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by chicagoMotorman on Wed May 18 19:16:02 2022. Disgusting response.You may not agree with Stephen's proposed response to covid (I don't either), but all he did was print an article. Can you find a single factual error in the article? |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed May 18 19:50:01 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by chicagoMotorman on Wed May 18 19:16:02 2022. IAWTP.There’s no end in sight if you open that post. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Wed May 18 19:57:19 2022, in response to 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 17:52:11 2022. "Simply letting the virus do what viruses do — continue to infect us, and likely several times a year — just isn’t an option in my playbook.”Whats the other option? Isint that what happens with seasonal influenza outbreaks, and a vaccine is developed to minimize sickness and death each year? Looks like different strains of covid will be with us for the long term and a vaccine will be developed along with natural immunity to combat each wave. Like seasonal flu. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed May 18 19:57:31 2022, in response to 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 17:52:11 2022. "“Such vaccines are clearly in our reach, but the lack of investment in a high priority and velocity initiative is holding us back,” he has explained.Three nasal vaccines are in late-stage clinical trials; four variant-proof vaccines recently started trials too. They could be used in concert: the latter for the initial doses, the former as boosters. But there’s been no Operation Warp Speed for any of them — and federal COVID funding is about to run out." Unfortunately I don't see the present administration cutting the red tape for "operation Warp Speed" like the last administration.
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Wed May 18 20:28:28 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed May 18 19:50:01 2022. Huh? I opened it, glanced at parts of it, and closed it. The end was quite quick. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Wed May 18 20:29:17 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Wed May 18 19:57:19 2022. Whats the other option?Being careful. It's worked for my wife and me. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths? No End In Sight? |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Wed May 18 20:33:30 2022, in response to 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 17:52:11 2022. There you go with ad verecundiam again. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Wed May 18 20:33:37 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed May 18 19:57:31 2022. This bill has money for research in it. Waiting for enough Republicans to allow it to move forward. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed May 18 20:37:54 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed May 18 19:50:01 2022. It was actually an interesting article. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 21:49:43 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Wed May 18 19:57:19 2022. Isint that what happens with seasonal influenza outbreaks, and a vaccine is developed to minimize sickness and death each year?Looks like different strains of covid will be with us for the long term and a vaccine will be developed along with natural immunity to combat each wave. Like seasonal flu. Before a vaccine can be developed, people will get Covid 3 to 4 times per year. 10% of them will get long term Covid which will keep them out of action for 3 to 6 months. These two paragraphs from the middle of the cited article describe what that means: Needless to say, getting infected multiple times a year with a virus that has the potential to cause a host of other health problems — including “long COVID” in roughly 10% of those it infects — is not optimal. Combine frequent reinfections with rising breakthrough cases, meanwhile, and the virus’s overall burden on society will soar — both in terms of sick days at work and school and the threat of more serious outcomes, including death. Even now, Omicron and its descendants aren’t just evading immunity against infection (even shortly after a booster shot). They’re showing they can erode at least some protection against severe illness as well. The effect of having a significant portion of society unable to work will cause far greater economic and social disruptions than have been seen to date. I don't expect society to come together to fight a common goal, given its response to the modest shortages we have seen to date. The article's solution is to develop a long lasting vaccine that will be effective against all variants and possibly prevent transmission by being in the nasal passages. I'm not so sure such vaccines can be developed because of the virus' mutation propensity. Also, what happens before such vaccines are available? The only strategy that has been shown to work is isolation/quarantine until the infection level can be contained through rigorous contact tracing and border control. These should not be relaxed until there no cases are recorded for two or three weeks for those who were in isolation/quarantine. I saw one report that contact tracing procedure will be in place, when Shanghai comes out of lockdown. Thousands of tents are being set up throughout Shanghai to administer PCR tests. All people will be required to get a PCR test every 48 hours. The results will be available within 6 hours and transmitted to the person's smartphone. The smartphone results will be the person's pass to enter "crowded" areas. There are holes in this procedure because Covid can be transmitted before a person's returns a positive PCR test and after that same person's PCR test goes back to negative. Covid has shown itself to be capable of finding such holes to reproduce. That's why testing is required on a continuing basis until it's eradicated. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 22:12:22 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Jeff Rosen on Wed May 18 19:57:31 2022. I don't see the present administration cutting the red tape for "operation Warp Speed" like the last administration.Mr. AlM has partially addressed the political nature of your statement. One human frailty is to be less critical of pleasant ideas than unpleasant ones. There were two vaccine types described in the paragraphs preceding the one you quoted. One is a vaccine that is applied directly to the nasal passages every few months. The unpleasant news is that the virus has shown a faster timeline to mutate to evade such protection. The second is a vaccine that would simultaneously protect against several viral variants. A similar strategy has been used against tuberculosis and HIV. The unpleasant news is data for longer term Covid immunity data is lacking and the Corona virus is transmitted by air not by body fluids. Vaccines are a pleasant idea because they require little sacrifice from the person being inoculated. The unpleasant idea is that such vaccines are not feasible or that the time to develop them will be too great. This means that reverting to isolation/quarantine procedures that require more individual sacrifice. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed May 18 22:24:31 2022, in response to 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 17:52:11 2022. Mother Nature (and China) at work. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Wed May 18 22:41:12 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by AlM on Wed May 18 20:29:17 2022. "Being careful."That and luck are the keys to a long life. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Wed May 18 22:48:59 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 21:49:43 2022. "The effect of having a significant portion of society unable to work will cause far greater economic and social disruptions than have been seen to date."For the most part, thats not true. Covid cases of late are less debilitating, most equating it to a bad cold. Many folks nowadays are walking around with covid & not knowing it. Besides, with a large percentage of the work force are working from home, the "far greater economic & social disruption" will be minimized. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Train Dude on Wed May 18 23:36:42 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by AlM on Wed May 18 19:26:01 2022. At least he has the balls to respobd, office drone. Not like one pussy here |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Train Dude on Wed May 18 23:39:04 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by AlM on Wed May 18 20:29:17 2022. Sadly |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Thu May 19 00:07:07 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Wed May 18 22:48:59 2022. Covid cases of late are less debilitating, most equating it to a bad cold.Covid is far more transmissible than the common cold. This means a single worker can (and has) taken out large portions of close quarter workers at one time. A single member is usually enough to infect an entire household. The average number of confirmed new daily cases were running around 1% of the population for a 3 week period at Omicron's peak in Great Britain. Germany has been a lot worse. This will repeat every few months, given Omicron's evasion from natural immunity. Three weeks @ 1% new cases means 21% of the population will be affected. Of these 10% or 2% of the population will suffer long term Covid for every 3 month period. 75% of those who suffer long term Covid had mild Covid cases. The economic and social institutions cannot handle 5% or more of the population on disability. a large percentage of the work force are working from home, the "far greater economic & social disruption" will be minimized. That at large home work from home percentage will not deliver freight, fight fires, police streets, see patients in doctor offices or hospitals, process foods, etc. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Thu May 19 08:43:04 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Wed May 18 22:48:59 2022. Covid cases of late are less debilitating, most equating it to a bad cold.Just about all employers of people who work indoors don't want the covid-infected person back on the job site until they test negative again. It doesn't matter how sick they feel. And that's an economically reasoned policy. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by chicagoMotorman on Thu May 19 10:04:39 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Train Dude on Wed May 18 23:36:42 2022. Thank you sir. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by rkba on Thu May 19 10:44:19 2022, in response to 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 17:52:11 2022. nobody cares about covid anymore, fuckface. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by chicagoMotorman on Thu May 19 10:59:23 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by rkba on Thu May 19 10:44:19 2022. iawtlp |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Thu May 19 11:22:31 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Stephen Bauman on Thu May 19 00:07:07 2022. "Covid is far more transmissible than the common cold"But not any more lethal "That at large home work from home percentage will not deliver freight, fight fires, police streets, see patients in doctor offices or hospitals, process foods, etc." And how many municipal services have had their ranks depleted these days b/c of covid? Its come down to this, people still go to work with a cold (& sometimes flu). People will go to to work (especially asymptomatic) being covid positive. Theres a backlash against wearing masks in this country. With the medical/scientific community sending out mixed messages about the effectiveness of masks, more and more the masks are coming off while mask mandates are not being considered, in NYC anyway. And don't even think about quarantines or lockdowns. That will never happen. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Thu May 19 12:16:50 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Thu May 19 11:22:31 2022. But not any more lethalWhen, ever, did 300 Americans per day die from the common cold? |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by rkba on Thu May 19 12:19:42 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by AlM on Thu May 19 12:16:50 2022. you gotta let this shit go. it's like stockholm syndrome at this point. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Thu May 19 12:32:18 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by rkba on Thu May 19 12:19:42 2022. Just correcting a factual error. |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Thu May 19 16:25:04 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by AlM on Thu May 19 12:16:50 2022. Well, on average 18,000 folks per day die from upper and lower respiratory infections, evolving maybe from the "common cold"? |
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Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight |
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Posted by AlM on Thu May 19 17:00:18 2022, in response to Re: 1 Million US Covid Deaths - No End In Sight, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Thu May 19 16:25:04 2022. You really need to stop reading the right wing propaganda so unquestioningly.18,000 deaths per day is 6.5 million per year. Only 3 million people die per year in the US from all causes. |
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