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| Re: Hurricane Ophelia weakens enroute to Newfoundland (60700) | |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia weakens enroute to Newfoundland |
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Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Sun Oct 2 12:37:46 2011, in response to Hurricane Ophelia weakens enroute to Newfoundland, posted by dand124 on Sun Oct 2 12:34:27 2011. |
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Hurricane Ophelia weakens, churns toward Canada |
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Posted by dand124 on Sun Oct 2 20:34:51 2011, in response to OPHELIA: ITS BUSH'S FAULT!, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Sep 14 15:01:49 2005. http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/02/world/americas/tropical-weather/Hurricane Ophelia weakened as it churned toward Canada Sunday, but forecasters warned it will still bring heavy winds as it heads towards Avalon peninsula of Newfoundland Sunday night. Ophelia was a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph Sunday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The storm, which is steadily weakening, continues to move north-northeast at 33 mph. The storm is predicted to spare the East Coast of the United States, before moving over or near Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula Monday as a much weaker storm, the hurricane center said. At 5 p.m. EST, Ophelia was about 485 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The Canadian province should see "tropical-storm-force winds" early Monday, the hurricane center said. The fast-traveling hurricane moved within 235 miles of Bermuda before shifting direction to the north, leaving the island group safely out of its direct path, the hurricane center said. It was expected to cause dangerous surf conditions in Bermuda. A second system, Tropical Storm Philippe, is east-southeast of Bermuda and not threatening land, according to the hurricane center. It is predicted to take a more westerly course. |
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Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by DANd124 on Tue Oct 10 19:19:44 2017, in response to OPHELIA: ITS BUSH'S FAULT!, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Sep 14 15:01:49 2005. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ophelia-gathering-strength-central-atlanticTropical Storm Ophelia appears to have its sights set on becoming the tenth consecutive hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season. As of 11 am CDT Tuesday, Ophelia’s top sustained winds were 50 mph. Fortunately, Ophelia is in the middle of the North Atlantic, far from land and about 780 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Ophelia was looking much more symmetric in satellite imagery on Tuesday morning, after days of strong shear that gave Ophelia’s showers and thunderstorms (convection) a lopsided structure. The convection was not particularly strong, which fits with the “cold” environment surrounding Ophelia. Sea surface temperatures are barely warm enough for development—only 26-27°C, or 79-81°F. However, this is substantially above average for the time of year (1-2°C), and the upper atmosphere is unusually cold, so the combination of the two is boosting instability. Outlook for Ophelia Computer models have come into very strong agreement that Ophelia will soon be a hurricane. Nearly all of the 70 ensemble members of the GFS and European model runs from 00Z Tuesday bring Ophelia to hurricane strength, as do the 12Z Tuesday SHIPS model and the 06Z Tuesday runs of the HWRF and HMON intensity models. Wind shear over Ophelia has dropped into the light to moderate range (around 10 knots), and SHIPS now predicts that shear will remain mostly below 15 knots through Saturday. The atmosphere around Ophelia will remain on the dry side (mid-level relative humidity around 50%), so periods of dry-air intrusion could chip away at Ophelia’s intensity. In its 11 am EDT Tuesday advisory, NHC predicted that Ophelia would become a hurricane by Thursday morning. Light steering currents are expected to keep Ophelia drifting southeast for the next day or two, before stronger upper-level westerlies kick in. By Saturday, Ophelia is likely to be accelerating east-northeast just south of the Azores; although a direct hit appears unlikely, it’s too soon to rule out that possibility. In NOAA’s historical hurricane database, which extends back to 1851, only 11 hurricanes have passed within about 200 miles of the Azores (as noted by weather.com). Every one of those occurred in August or September—except for strikingly unseasonal Hurricane Alex, which struck the islands in January 2016 just after weakening to tropical-storm strength. Looking further ahead, NHC is predicting Ophelia to transition into a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday as it continues racing east-northeast toward the Iberian Peninsula. Only two storms are known to have struck the west coast of Portugal or Spain as tropical cyclones: a transitioning hurricane in October 1842 and Hurricane Vince (as a tropical depression) in October 2005. Intriguingly, phase-space diagrams from Florida State University based on the 06Z Tuesday run of the GFS model suggest that Ophelia might actually approach the Iberian Peninsula as a weakening warm-core tropical cyclone—i.e., a tropical storm. Ensemble models show a slight chance of Atlantic development this week in two areas of disturbed weather, one north of the Leeward Islands and the other in the central tropical Atlantic. Given the unfavorable state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (see below), development of either disturbance appears quite unlikely, and neither was highlighted in the tropical weather outlook issued by NOAA at 8 AM EDT Tuesday. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SLRT on Tue Oct 10 20:47:18 2017, in response to Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by DANd124 on Tue Oct 10 19:19:44 2017. If I was Hamlet I'd be worried. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Tue Oct 10 21:25:22 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SLRT on Tue Oct 10 20:47:18 2017. Especially if Laertes is on his way back too. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by Dyre Dan on Wed Oct 11 00:24:53 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SLRT on Tue Oct 10 20:47:18 2017. Any convents in its path, in case it decides to follow Hamlet's advice of "To a nunnery go"? |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 09:58:49 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by Dyre Dan on Wed Oct 11 00:24:53 2017. If I were a convent, I'd make sure my flood insurance is paid up. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SMAZ on Wed Oct 11 10:49:54 2017, in response to Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by DANd124 on Tue Oct 10 19:19:44 2017. Nay 'tis twice two months, my lord. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by orange blossom special on Wed Oct 11 11:32:33 2017, in response to Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by DANd124 on Tue Oct 10 19:19:44 2017. "a transitioning hurricane in October 1842"This gender stuff sure goes far back. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 13:03:26 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SMAZ on Wed Oct 11 10:49:54 2017. Indeed? Then we have hope Hurricane Season will not be forgotten. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Wed Oct 11 13:31:45 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 13:03:26 2017. Then there's hope a great meteorologist's memory may outlive his life half a year. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 14:54:13 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by Olog-hai on Wed Oct 11 13:31:45 2017. Tex Antoine? |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SMAZ on Wed Oct 11 19:04:52 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 13:03:26 2017. Only if the hurricane hits on Oct 25 because from that day to the ending of the world, we in it shall be rememberèd.We few, we happy few, we band of brothers. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 20:15:22 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SMAZ on Wed Oct 11 19:04:52 2017. This royal County of Kings, this sceptered isle,This earth of Massapequa ... |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SMAZ on Thu Oct 12 00:04:19 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 20:15:22 2017. HAHAHA!!! |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Thu Oct 12 00:17:38 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by SLRT on Wed Oct 11 20:15:22 2017. Wrong play. |
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Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SLRT on Thu Oct 12 08:55:31 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by Olog-hai on Thu Oct 12 00:17:38 2017. We went from Hamlet to Henry V, so why not Richard II ...? |
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| (1469584) | |
Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic |
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Posted by SMAZ on Thu Oct 12 09:37:47 2017, in response to Re: Ophelia Gathering Strength in Central Atlantic, posted by Olog-hai on Thu Oct 12 00:17:38 2017. Thou elvish-marked, abortive, rooting hog! |
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Hurricane Ophelia strengthens to Category 2 storm, NHC says |
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Posted by DANd124 on Thu Oct 12 20:56:40 2017, in response to OPHELIA: ITS BUSH'S FAULT!, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Sep 14 15:01:49 2005. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-ophelia-2017-10-12-ireland-path-10th-hurricane-of-2017-season/MIAMI -- Hurricane Ophelia strengthened to a Category 2 storm, swirling far from land in the eastern Atlantic, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest advisory. The NHC says Ophelia is barely moving and is continuing to strengthening, now boasting top sustained winds of 100 mph. On Thursday afternoon, Ophelia's core was located about 715 miles southwest of the Azores, where it was virtually stationary. The Miami-based hurricane center says Ophelia should lose a little strength in the next 48 hours but is expected to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. The hurricane center's five-day forecast, which can change, has Ophelia heading close to the British Isles by Monday afternoon. That's a bit of an unusual track for Atlantic storms. Currently there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Ophelia became a hurricane Wednesday, the 10th hurricane in the Atlantic in 2017. It's unlikely it will be a threat to U.S., although it could possibly be a threat to Ireland, the NHC said Wednesday. University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy says Ophelia is the 10th straight tropical storm to become a hurricane in an Atlantic season. That has not happened since 1893, according to McNoldy. He says a combination of slightly warmer than normal water and weak upper level winds helped make that hurricane streak. Additionally, the 2017 hurricane season has been busy -- there were two Category 5 storms: Irma and Maria. There were two others, Harvey and Jose, that reached Category 4 strength. |
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Ophelia Hits Category 3; Destructive Winds On Tap for Ireland |
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Posted by DANd124 on Sun Oct 15 07:56:35 2017, in response to OPHELIA: ITS BUSH'S FAULT!, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Sep 14 15:01:49 2005. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ophelia-hits-category-3-destructive-winds-tap-irelandThe 2017 Atlantic hurricane season continued to astound on Saturday morning with the unexpected ascent of Hurricane Ophelia to major-hurricane status. Based on a very impressive satellite signature, the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center brought Ophelia’s peak winds up to 115 mph at 11 am EDT, making it a low-end Category 3 storm. The wind estimate may be conservative, said NHC forecaster Lixion Avila in the NHC forecast discussion. Ophelia was located about 220 miles south of the Azores, moving northeast at 25 mph. Ophelia is expected to pass within 100 miles of the Azores’ southeasternmost island, Santa Maria. The island will be on the hurricane’s weaker left-hand side, but winds could reach tropical-storm force, and squally weather is likely. Much bigger impacts from Ophelia are expected in Ireland (see below). To call Ophelia unusual would be an understatement. For one thing, it became a major hurricane at longitude 26.6°W, further east than any other formation of a Category 3 in the Atlantic. The former record-holder was Frances (1980), which became a Category 3 at 12.8°N, 29.8°W. Ophelia’s achievement is even more impressive when you consider its latitude: 34.8°N. In data going back to 1851, no other major hurricane is known to have formed anywhere close to as far northeast as Ophelia. The runner-up at Ophelia’s latitude range, Michael (2012), developed some 900 miles further west (see Figure 2 below). Ophelia also extends this year’s count of major Atlantic hurricanes to six, a tally last achieved in 2004. Only two years have notched seven major Atlantic hurricanes: 1961 and 2005. By conventional standards, one wouldn’t even expect Ophelia to be a hurricane, much less a major one. Sea surface temperatures beneath Ophelia are around 25°C (77°F), which is roughly 1°C below the traditional benchmark of SST levels warm enough to support tropical development. However, these waters are about 2°C (3.6°F) above average for the location and the time of year, and upper-level temperatures near the top of Ophelia are several degrees C below average. The result is enough instability to support well-organized showers and thunderstorms (convection), even though the convection is less intense than it would be in a warmer environment. A 2015 study led by Ron McTaggart-Cowan (Environment Canada) showed that a better threshold for systems like Ophelia that are transitioning away from the tropics would be based on potential instability between lower and upper levels of the hurricane, rather than on SSTs alone. Ophelia meets this threshold, according to Philippe Papin (University at Albany, SUNY). Other things are also working in Ophelia’s favor. A strong outflow jet at upper levels on Ophelia’s west side is helping to ventilate the hurricane, and the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model showed that wind shear on Saturday was in the light to moderate range (about 10 – 15 knots). The shear will begin to increase rapidly by Saturday night, heralding a change to come in Ophelia’s structure. With Ophelia strengthening even more than predicted, a destructive windstorm in Ireland on par with some of the most damaging in the nation’s history is becoming increasingly likely. This weekend, Ophelia will be picked up by an approaching upper-level trough and will accelerate east-northeast and then north-northeast. As it does so, the hurricane’s structure will take on more and more characteristics of a very powerful midlatitude winter-type storm, although it’s possible Ophelia will retain an eye-like feature as part of what’s called a warm seclusion. Models strongly suggest that the upper-level dynamics will be potent enough to bring Ophelia’s central pressure by Monday to an even lower value than the 960 mb reported in NHC’s 11 am EDT Saturday. Regardless of whether it is still classified as a hurricane or not, Ophelia is predicted to approach Ireland on Monday with top winds somewhere near hurricane strength, plus an expanding field of gale-force winds. Our top track models are in close agreement that Ophelia’s center will sweep along or near Ireland’s west coast on Monday, putting most of the country on the storm’s more dangerous right-hand side. The GFS model has a particularly worrisome track, bringing Ophelia squarely across western Ireland and onward as a rapidly weakening storm through Northern Ireland and Scotland. As Ophelia reaches Ireland, we can expect winds of 50 – 70 mph to be slamming into Ireland’s southwest coast, and sustained winds of 40 – 50 mph will likely extend well inland. One concern for Ophelia’s impact on Ireland may be the potential for the ex-hurricane to develop a “sting jet.” This is a current of extra-strong jet stream winds that start out about 3 – 4 km above the surface, then descend over a 3 – 4 hour period. Rain falling into the jet evaporates and cools, causing the winds in the sting jet to accelerate as they reach the ground. Ophelia is expected to complete the transition to an extratropical storm just off southwest Ireland on Monday morning. As this process unfolds, the wind field of Ophelia will expand, and Ophelia promises to be a damaging wind event for Ireland. Expect widespread tree damage and uprooted trees, damaged roofs, power blackouts, mobile phone coverage interruptions, and flying debris. Met Eireann, the Irish meteorology service, has a “status red” alert in effect for the southwestern counties of Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry, where sustained winds above 80 km/hr (50 mph) and gusts topping 130 kph (80 mph) are expected. Ireland’s National Emergency Coordination Group will meet on Sunday to discuss storm preparation, according to the Irish Times. The UK Met Office is warning of possible power loss and building damage across Northern Ireland. There may be coastal flooding from Ophelia’s high surf and battering wave, and localized storm surge is possible, but Ophelia’s rapid motion will help limit the surge threat, according to storm-surge Dr. Hal Needham. Ophelia could bring up to 2” of rain over higher terrain in Ireland. Heavy rains from a decaying Ophelia (perhaps 2” or more) may extend all the way to western Finland. Hurricane history of the UK and Ireland We don’t often talk about Europe when discussing hurricanes, and Ophelia is likely to be one of the top ten most notable Atlantic ex-hurricanes to affect Europe over the past 50 years. Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the UK or Ireland several times per decade, on average. Some recent examples: The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia skirted the northern coast of Scotland on September 12, 2011, two days after transitioning from a hurricane to an extratropical storm south of Newfoundland, Canada. According to Wikipedia, a maximum wind gust of 158 km/h (98 mph) was recorded on Cairn Gorm, Scotland as Katia impacted the region, with a peak gust of 130 km/h (81 mph) observed at a non-mountain station in Capel Curig, Wales; these observations marked the strongest impact from a tropical cyclone since Hurricane Lili in 1996. Waves up to 15 meters (49 ft) battered the western coastline of Ireland, and fallen power lines temporarily disrupted DART services. Approximately 4,000 households were left without power across the country. A catering marquee was blown into the air on a set for the television series Game of Thrones, causing one injury. In County Durham, United Kingdom, a man was killed after a tree fell on the minivan he was driving. Damage estimates in the United Kingdom alone topped £100m ($157 million 2011 USD). The remnants of Katia produced damage as far east as Estonia and Russia. In St. Petersburg, wind gusts up to 45 mph (75 km/h) damaged buildings and left roughly 1,500 residents without power. Extratropical storm Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph, had been a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. Bill brought heavy rain and severe gales to the UK. Extratropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds. Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland. Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Extratropical Storm Lili moved across Britain on October 28 – 29, 1996. Ex-Hurricane Lili brought gusts in excess of 90 mph, and caused widespread impacts across the UK and significant disruption. There is officially one fully tropical hurricane that has hit Europe: Hurricane Debbie of 1961, which tracked through the western Azores as a Category 1 hurricane, then arced northeast and brushed the west coast of Ireland on September 16, also as a Category 1 hurricane. However, there is evidence that Debbie transitioned from tropical to post-tropical (extratropical) cyclone before hitting Ireland (see also this discussion at Irish Weather Online.) Debbie passed close enough to Ireland to produce major destruction. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842. Sunday, October 15, 2017 is the 30th anniversary of one the most talked-about weather events in UK history, the ‘Great Storm’ of 1987. See the UK Met Office article on this weather event, whose 100-mph winds gusts killed 22 people and caused around £1 billion worth of damage. It has gone down in history as one of the worst UK storms since 1703 and will obviously be remembered for Michael Fish’s now-legendary television broadcast. |
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Hurricane Ophelia: Three people die as storm hits Ireland |
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Posted by DANd124 on Mon Oct 16 19:03:58 2017, in response to OPHELIA: ITS BUSH'S FAULT!, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Sep 14 15:01:49 2005. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41627442 |
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Tropical Storm Ophelia blasts mid-Atlantic after North Carolina landfall |
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Posted by DaNd124 on Sat Sep 23 14:11:43 2023, in response to OPHELIA: ITS BUSH'S FAULT!, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Sep 14 15:01:49 2005. https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-storm-ophelia-east-coast-north-carolina |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia blasts mid-Atlantic after North Carolina landfall |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Sep 23 15:11:16 2023, in response to Tropical Storm Ophelia blasts mid-Atlantic after North Carolina landfall, posted by DaNd124 on Sat Sep 23 14:11:43 2023. Heh. Only took 18 years. |
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Ophelia continues to pose risk of coastal flooding and heavy rain from D.C. to New York |
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Posted by DaNd124 on Sun Sep 24 10:54:09 2023, in response to OPHELIA: ITS BUSH'S FAULT!, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Sep 14 15:01:49 2005. https://www.wpbf.com/article/tracking-ophelia-atlantic-hurricane-season/45268307 |
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Re: Ophelia continues to pose risk of coastal flooding and heavy rain from D.C. to New York |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Sep 24 11:07:15 2023, in response to Ophelia continues to pose risk of coastal flooding and heavy rain from D.C. to New York, posted by DaNd124 on Sun Sep 24 10:54:09 2023. Hopefully it doesn’t hit land and you can post this again in 2029. |
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