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| (1378005) | |
Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 09:26:35 2016 If Trump improves uniformly in all states by 5.5% relative to where the polls have him now, then he gets all the states Romney won, plus OH, CO, FL, NV, and the northern district of Maine.269 to 269 |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 10:22:43 2016, in response to Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 09:26:35 2016. He won't get CO FL NV. Those states have higher than average Hispanic populations, and his approval with those populations would have to rise above the mid teens for him to be able to pull that off. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 10:31:49 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 10:22:43 2016. He won't get CO FL NV.He will if his margin improves by 5% or more over what current polls show. I'm making on observation based on a premise. Obviously the observation is null if the premise doesn't hold up. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:07:25 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 10:31:49 2016. Simply put, that,s not possible. If anywhere, he will improve his positives within his echo chamber. That's only worth 153 EV at most. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:23:04 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:07:25 2016. Nothing is impossible in politics. Maybe in your Hillary echo chamber things are impossible, but not reality. I am not saying it is likely barring some major event between now and Election Day, but impossible it isn't. Donald Trump defeated his projections in the primaries and he can in the general election as well. Donald Trump has support in portions of the population who either 1) do not regularly vote or 2) voted for candidates in the past as the lesser of two evils. That is compounded by the fact that his rhetoric sells as we face domestic criminal activity from Islamic fundamentalists and "refugees," not to mention "BLM" folk advocating the execution of police officers. Safety is a major issue to voters and Donald Trump is playing to that. Hillary Clinton's continuation of Barack Obama's policies does not sell when it is those same policies that have put us in the situation we are now. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Jul 9 11:25:42 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:23:04 2016. Please provide a link from a credible source, showing where Black Lives Matter has actually "advocated for the execution of police officers". |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Jul 9 11:26:19 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:23:04 2016. IAWTP. This is why it's so scary. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Jul 9 11:26:47 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Jul 9 11:25:42 2016. Doesn't have to actually be true. That's what the Trumpenproletariat believe. |
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| (1378026) | |
Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:30:54 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Jul 9 11:25:42 2016. LINK |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:35:41 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:23:04 2016. The only actual suport trump has is within his echo chamber. He polls at under 20% approval with Hispanics, women and just over 10% with blacks. Those numbers aren't moving. Face it, his numbers haven't changed one whit in a year, he's entrenched himself already.I have yet to hear apoll where "lesser of two evils" is a consideration. Lulz. bLM has advocated for non violence from its inception ( it was formed by victims families). Nobody condones what happened in Dallas. By the same logic, nobody should condone senselesspolice violence like we've seen this week. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Chicagomotorman on Sat Jul 9 11:40:33 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:35:41 2016. Klutz. Change that to most people don't condone what happened in Dallas. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Dave on Sat Jul 9 11:42:29 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:07:25 2016. Simply put, that,s not possible.And if it happens and Trump wins, will you leave SubChat? |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:42:54 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:35:41 2016. First, take off your Hillary blinders. Second, I was not commenting on the likelihood of such an occurrence, just stating that it was not impossible. Third, I never said that "lesser of two evils" was in a poll. I said that Trump has strong support among those who, in the past, have voted for candidates who they considered the lesser of two evils and with Trump in the race they are committed to him. These voters do not vote regularly because they are usually disenchanted with the candidates. As a result, while polling data generally reflects the demographics we have seen in past elections, Donald Trump attracts people who would not be considered in that data. That is why Barack Obama outperformed polls - he got out the vote in communities that tended to not vote regularly. Finally, if you believe BLM advocates non-violence I have an antique bridge across the East River to sell you. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Chicagomotorman on Sat Jul 9 11:43:34 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by Dave on Sat Jul 9 11:42:29 2016. I doubt it. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Chicagomotorman on Sat Jul 9 11:44:37 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:42:54 2016. I agree with your last sentence. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 11:47:58 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:23:04 2016. In addition, "Not A" is not a disproof of "If A then B."I also agree that it's not impossible. Fivethirtyeight, who are pretty good at what they do but fallible sometimes too, gives it a probability of about 22%. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 11:48:25 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Jul 9 11:26:47 2016. True. :( |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 11:50:02 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:30:54 2016. Disgusting but not a response to JayZ's request. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:52:47 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by Chicagomotorman on Sat Jul 9 11:40:33 2016. I don't know of anyone that does. I know a few, even here, that condone what happened in MN and LA, sick as that is. |
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Posted by TonyG on Sat Jul 9 12:13:05 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:52:47 2016. All of the events are sick.I am deeply disturbed by all 3. What I am also disturbed by is that some people are upset about what happened in Dallas but are not disturbed by what happened in MN and LA. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Dave on Sat Jul 9 12:16:13 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by JayZeeBMT on Sat Jul 9 11:25:42 2016. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/chris-christie-black-lives-matter-murder-police-officers/http://www.msnbc.com/the-reid-report/the-truth-about-the-dead-cops-chant http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/09/breaking-video-blacklivesmatter-radio-show-its-open-season-on-killing-whites-and-cops/ |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 12:40:04 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sat Jul 9 11:42:54 2016. There is no proof of anything you're saying. Nor have you provided any proof that trump has done more than get some republicans that never had before to vote in a primary. His negatives, 78% for Hispanics and women, 88% for blacks, have effctively fossilized. It is highly doubtful those will change. The entire premise and fundamentals of both the candidate and the rpublican party would have to comltely ransform for that to happen. We all know that will not, in fact we see trump doublng down every illconceived statement he makes.Deal with it. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 12:41:16 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by TonyG on Sat Jul 9 12:13:05 2016. Same here. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by mtk52983 on Sat Jul 9 12:46:09 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 12:40:04 2016. I can't have proof from a general because he hasn't been through the entire process. We do not know what will happen between now and November. I am not saying it is likely, but it is not impossible. Not to mention polling data is based on demographics of past elections. If Trump can get out the vote in communities favorable to him, it can counteract negatives elsewhere. Not to mention national polling doesn't mean much because most states are going for one or the other |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 12:55:26 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by mtk52983 on Sat Jul 9 12:46:09 2016. There are simply not enough people that support trump for him to do anything close to winning. Based on the 30-year model, trump will get 153 EVs, Clinton 242. All she needs is FL to win. Given that's she's up like 12+ points there, a state with large minority populations, it's going to be damn near impossible to overcome that. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 12:57:35 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by mtk52983 on Sat Jul 9 12:46:09 2016. Not to mention national polling doesn't mean much because most states are going for one or the otherNational polling means very much. Unless the national vote is within about 1%, the winner of the national popular vote is sure to win the electoral vote. However if the national popular vote is really close, then what really matters are 8 individual states: CO, NV, OH, FL, VA, PA, NH, IA, plus (in a few specific circumstances) the northern district of Maine. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Tonyg on Sat Jul 9 13:00:02 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 12:57:35 2016. Hillary looks do be the favorite in all of these states (with OH and PA probably being the closest). |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 13:03:18 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by Tonyg on Sat Jul 9 13:00:02 2016. She is the favorite in all of them. But things can change in 4 months. Things would have to change a lot for the popular vote to be close. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by italianstallion on Sat Jul 9 16:18:59 2016, in response to Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by AlM on Sat Jul 9 09:26:35 2016. An interesting mind game, but the likelihood of such a uniform state-by-state increase is extremely unlikely. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Jul 9 23:38:14 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 10:22:43 2016. Keep telling yourself that. Wishful thinking on your end, but come November, Reality will set in. |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Jul 9 23:40:16 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by TonyG on Sat Jul 9 12:13:05 2016. What happened in Baton Rouge that is disturbing? He bought the ticket, he saw the show! |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jul 10 00:34:34 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Jul 9 23:38:14 2016. Sure hope the right can deal with it when the time comes. :)
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 00:44:01 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Jul 10 00:34:34 2016. Seriously. I think he needs to up his medication doseage. He's highly delusional. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Sun Jul 10 01:43:56 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sat Jul 9 11:07:25 2016. wrong |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 10:41:39 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by Terrapin Station on Sun Jul 10 01:43:56 2016. He has zero mass apeeal. Fact is, his negatives are hardening, especially among women. Givn that we're the majority and he offers nothing, the deal's done. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jul 10 10:52:21 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 00:44:01 2016. While a Trump victory is unlikely, it's still possible, and we should do everything possible to avert the disaster. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 11:19:24 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Jul 10 10:52:21 2016. Absolutely. There's no reat until Nov 9 on this, despite the likelihoods presented. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by TerrApin Station on Sun Jul 10 19:22:58 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 10:41:39 2016. Wrong. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 20:50:21 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by TerrApin Station on Sun Jul 10 19:22:58 2016. Reality says different. Get a clue or sod off. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by TerrApin Station on Sun Jul 10 21:20:25 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 20:50:21 2016. No it doesn't. You're wrong about a lot of things, including this. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 21:51:53 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by TerrApin Station on Sun Jul 10 21:20:25 2016. Denial is not a river. It's your state of being WRT this. Face it, trumps negatives are very high and remaining so. He does not have coherent policy points that are capable of chnaging minds.Do you want your kids to have a chance to grow up or not? It really does come down to that. In many ways, not just the nuclear war thing. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by MTK52983 on Sun Jul 10 21:58:41 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 21:51:53 2016. I do not want my future harmed by terrorist "refugees" or by the lack of police officers as less people want to enter the career because our government is more concerned that criminals are not treated too harshly versus stoping crime. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 22:50:27 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by MTK52983 on Sun Jul 10 21:58:41 2016. First won,t happen, there are vetting processes. Second, one need not nor should anyone want guncrazed vigilante police. There is a need to improve training of and checks for the mental state of, police, so they can do their job professionally and garner desrved respct for it. They also need to reach out and explain what they expect from anyone stopped for any reason, regardless of the community where they live. We also need to seriously reduce the sheer number of guns out there, as rampant gn ownership is the biggest risk to police in this country. They would have much less t fear if there were a lot fewer guns around period. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Sun Jul 10 23:07:05 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 21:51:53 2016. Denial is not a river.And? It's your state of being WRT this.No... Face it, trumps negatives are very high and remaining so. He does not have coherent policy points that are capable of chnaging minds.Where did I say otherwise? Do you want your kids to have a chance to grow up or not? It really does come down to that. In many ways, not just the nuclear war thing.What does this have to do with me? Why do you make everything so political. I simply stated, as did others, that you are wrong that Trump can't possibly win. YOU ARE WRONG about that. That's not political. It's just fact. You need to see the difference between politics and reality. I'm not political on this forum. I deal with reality. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 23:30:57 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by Terrapin Station on Sun Jul 10 23:07:05 2016. Which you take literally. Everyone else on the planet, including myself knows its a miniscule chance,one so small it barely merits acknowledging. That it exists means we need to remain focused on ensuring trump's election does not happen.You treat it as if its actually for real. How out of touch is that? |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by R2ChinaTown on Sun Jul 10 23:38:21 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Sun Jul 10 23:30:57 2016. Sounds more like you are trying to convince yourself. Great. That should magnify your disappointment. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 11 10:01:47 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by R2ChinaTown on Sun Jul 10 23:38:21 2016. Lulz. Hardly, all the signs that trump will lose are there. And far more obviously than they were four years. |
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Posted by R2ChinaTown on Mon Jul 11 10:04:56 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 11 10:01:47 2016. And yet you and the other lefty lackies seem awfully concerned considering you guys are this as a slam dunk. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 11 10:21:04 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by R2ChinaTown on Mon Jul 11 10:04:56 2016. Because "erring on the side of caution" is always called for with elections. Nobody rested in 2012 either. |
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Re: Interesting electoral vote situation |
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Posted by R2ChinaTown on Mon Jul 11 10:34:18 2016, in response to Re: Interesting electoral vote situation, posted by bingbong on Mon Jul 11 10:21:04 2016. Please! Rhetoric on your side has reached epidemic proportions. Hillary is not a viable candidate. Very flawed |
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