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| Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November (1362385) | |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by R2ChinaTown on Thu Apr 28 14:40:23 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Joe V on Thu Apr 28 10:21:43 2016. Sounds like she chewed on a dead rat. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Thu Apr 28 14:42:09 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Joe V on Thu Apr 28 09:26:44 2016. Turnout is what the game is about. If you get people out to vote you win. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by Joe V on Thu Apr 28 14:59:25 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by R2ChinaTown on Thu Apr 28 14:40:23 2016. Maybe that's what they used to eat in Arkansas. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 15:01:44 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 28 10:42:20 2016. On the contrary.The three major voter demographics in this country are (a) the Republican base, (b) the liberal base, and (c) the low information voters. The Republican base will generally vote for a Republican and will never vote for a Democrat, but they may choose not to vote if they feel the Republican candidates are too tepid. The liberal base would never vote for a Republican and would prefer to vote for a liberal Democrat. When the Democratic candidate is not liberal (as was the case in every presidential election since 1992), they may vote for the "less evil" conservative Democrat, they may vote third party, or they may choose not to vote. The low information voters pay little attention to the world around them, so when they vote it's usually on the basis of who can present the most attractive position in a 30-second sound bite. It seems as though Trump will win the Republican primary and Clinton the Democratic one. As such, in the general election: Trump will energise the Republican base and win it with high turnout. Clinton, being a hard-right conservative, will not be able to win the genuine support of the liberal base. The prospect of a Trump presidency is scary enough that many liberals would vote for her just to prevent it, but "vote for me because I'm less evil" doesn't motivate turnout. Who the low information voters will pick is harder to predict in advance, but Trump has a distinct advantage in this category. People have been noticing that they're less secure every year; they're working longer hours for less money and increasingly poorer and indebted. They don't really pay attention to the world around them, so they may not know why but they do know that something is wrong and they want answers. Trump will give them the glib and wrong answers of a fascist— "you're getting poorer because The Blacks® and The Hispanics® and The Muslims® are stealing the wealth and ruining the country!" Clinton will give them no answers at all— "the stock market is booming, there are plenty of 'jobs' available, the problems you've personally witnessed don't exist!" Low information voters aren't the type to investigate and learn; all they know is they're suffering, Trump has An Answer and Clinton does not. Obviously, this doesn't mean Trump is guaranteed to win. However, it's far too early to dismiss the possibility outright. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by Joe V on Thu Apr 28 15:17:06 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 15:01:44 2016. I would not call Hillary a hard-right conservative, more like southern, boll-weevil, hawkish Democrat, though not a bigot. She is more the ilk of LBJ, Carter, and the late Senator Lloyd Bensten. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 15:26:30 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Joe V on Thu Apr 28 15:17:06 2016. I would not call Hillary a hard-right conservative, more like southern, boll-weevil, hawkish DemocratYou say tomater, I zader matermorts. ...though not a bigot. Well, unless you're LGBTQA and any other letters that may get added to that now or in the future. Or foreign. Or foreign-born. If you're black or brown but born in America, then she's merely obliviously privileged and often antagonistic; sure, she may have supported the "tough on crime" and "war on drugs" disasters, but she did so with the very best of intentions. And if you're a woman, well, women's bodily autonomy is just one of many things she'd be happy to "compromise" in order to convince the Republicans to not shut down the government. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by AlM on Thu Apr 28 15:31:13 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 15:26:30 2016. If you're black or brown but born in America, then she's merely obliviously privileged and often antagonistic; sure, she may have supported the "tough on crime" and "war on drugs" disasters, but she did so with the very best of intentions. And if you're a woman, well, women's bodily autonomy is just one of many things she'd be happy to "compromise" in order to convince the Republicans to not shut down the government. All of which explains why she won the women's vote and overwhelmingly won the black vote against Sanders. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 28 15:46:16 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Joe V on Thu Apr 28 14:09:06 2016. I wouldn't say that. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 28 15:56:18 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 15:01:44 2016. Ou're confusing Hillary with Bill. She has always been well to the left of him. She just has the brains to know what battles to choose. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 28 16:07:25 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 15:26:30 2016. Doubtful. I would expect to see caving of thta nature out of Sanders. Happened before. Not from Hillary.In fact, she aupported an actual law guaranteeing reproductive rights that was circulating around in 2008. I'd like to see that happen. Might stop a lot of RW bullshit. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by NIlet on Thu Apr 28 20:01:10 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 28 16:07:25 2016. Doubtful. I would expect to see caving of thta nature out of Sanders. Happened before. Not from Hillary.Are you kidding? Take a look at their respective voting records. |
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 20:01:13 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by AlM on Thu Apr 28 15:31:13 2016. All of which explains why she won the women's vote and overwhelmingly won the black vote against Sanders.It would hardly be the first time people voted against their own interests en masse. |
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