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| Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November (1362528) | |||
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Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November |
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Posted by Nilet on Thu Apr 28 15:01:44 2016, in response to Re: Maybe Trump Does Have A Chance In November, posted by bingbong on Thu Apr 28 10:42:20 2016. On the contrary.The three major voter demographics in this country are (a) the Republican base, (b) the liberal base, and (c) the low information voters. The Republican base will generally vote for a Republican and will never vote for a Democrat, but they may choose not to vote if they feel the Republican candidates are too tepid. The liberal base would never vote for a Republican and would prefer to vote for a liberal Democrat. When the Democratic candidate is not liberal (as was the case in every presidential election since 1992), they may vote for the "less evil" conservative Democrat, they may vote third party, or they may choose not to vote. The low information voters pay little attention to the world around them, so when they vote it's usually on the basis of who can present the most attractive position in a 30-second sound bite. It seems as though Trump will win the Republican primary and Clinton the Democratic one. As such, in the general election: Trump will energise the Republican base and win it with high turnout. Clinton, being a hard-right conservative, will not be able to win the genuine support of the liberal base. The prospect of a Trump presidency is scary enough that many liberals would vote for her just to prevent it, but "vote for me because I'm less evil" doesn't motivate turnout. Who the low information voters will pick is harder to predict in advance, but Trump has a distinct advantage in this category. People have been noticing that they're less secure every year; they're working longer hours for less money and increasingly poorer and indebted. They don't really pay attention to the world around them, so they may not know why but they do know that something is wrong and they want answers. Trump will give them the glib and wrong answers of a fascist— "you're getting poorer because The Blacks® and The Hispanics® and The Muslims® are stealing the wealth and ruining the country!" Clinton will give them no answers at all— "the stock market is booming, there are plenty of 'jobs' available, the problems you've personally witnessed don't exist!" Low information voters aren't the type to investigate and learn; all they know is they're suffering, Trump has An Answer and Clinton does not. Obviously, this doesn't mean Trump is guaranteed to win. However, it's far too early to dismiss the possibility outright. |
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