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| Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping (1298237) | |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Jul 7 11:20:31 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Fred G on Tue Jul 7 11:18:48 2015. And as of course a leftist mind would not remember, the point was the job force has shrunk.....so obviously "isn't getting better".... |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 11:26:27 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 10:37:55 2015. Because it was lower during the Bush administration than the Obama administration.16% is lower than 10%? I've decided to kill your math teacher. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 11:27:05 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 10:24:18 2015. HAHAHA!!! |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 11:33:55 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Jul 7 11:20:31 2015. And as of course a leftist mind would not remember, the point was the job force has shrunk.....so obviously "isn't getting better"....That's the point of looking at the U-6 unemployment rate - it includes those who "dropped out of the workforce." |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 11:37:41 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by WillD on Mon Jul 6 17:02:35 2015. What is your source for this assertion?Retirees and babies. |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 11:42:39 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 10:37:55 2015. Because it was lower during the Bush administration than the Obama administration.It was 13.6 in December 2008. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 12:53:58 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Fred G on Tue Jul 7 11:18:48 2015. Yeah...2008 was when the stock market crapped out and the economy suffered. By December 2008 U-6 was 13.7%. Obama took office in January 2009 and U-6 spiked up to 17.4%. LOL |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 12:58:04 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 11:26:27 2015. What are you yammering on about this time?When W took office U-6 was 7.3% It peaked in December 2008, his last month in office, at 13.7%. A few month after Obama took office it peaked at 17.4% and last month was 10.5%. Where did you get 16% from...unless you meant during Obama's presidency? Funny thing, facts. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 12:59:09 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 11:42:39 2015. Yes, and it hit 17.4% in the Obama administration. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:01:33 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 11:27:05 2015. Apparently bingbong can't count on her fingers or her toes - and neither can you - because U-6 wasn't calculated when Reagan was in office and until the last few months of W's administration, U-6 was lower than any time than during Obama's administration.HAHAHA!!! |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 13:13:49 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:01:33 2015. My comparison was Clinton to bush. Your own stats demonstrate that fail.As to Reagan so what? Getting to be a long time ago....... |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 13:19:14 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 12:53:58 2015. Obama took office in January 2009 and U-6 spiked up to 17.4%. LOLWhat you meant to say was: "Bush left office in January 2009 and U-6 was 17.4%. LOL" So what is it now? |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 13:22:03 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 12:58:04 2015. Yeah my bad about the 16%.It was in fact 17.4% This guy even said so. Funny things, facts. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 13:28:05 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:01:33 2015. and until the last few months of W's administration, U-6 was lower than any time than during Obama's administration. Is that like Watergate happening in the last months of the Nixon Administration? Fucking Ford! Or the destruction of Germany happening during the last few months of the Hitler Administration. Fucking Adenauer! |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:49:48 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 13:13:49 2015. You're the one who brought up Reagan in your OP. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:52:09 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 13:19:14 2015. Noooo....U-6 was 13.7% in December 2008, Bush' last month in office. That was near the bottom the the stock market crash that clipped the economy. |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:53:45 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 13:22:03 2015. ?U-6 was much higher during the Obama presidency than the W presidency. Where is the confusion? |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 14:02:47 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:52:09 2015. Bush's last month in office was January 2009 and over 800,000 jobs a month were being lost.That started to reverse almost right away once my President took office and started implementing his policies. See graph and marvel 
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 14:06:14 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:53:45 2015. Do you ever ask yourself why Obama won re-election even though the U-3 was still above 8%?I wish Romney had won so that the U-3 rate would go under 6% by January 2017. 
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 14:12:19 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 13:49:48 2015. Because unemployment was so high through much of the eighties. |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 14:19:16 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 12:59:09 2015. Yes, and it hit 17.4% in the Obama administration.Can't reverse a trend overnight. Net change from December 2000 to December 2008 is +6.7; net change from December 2008 to now is -3.1. |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 14:21:49 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 14:02:47 2015. I don't know where your graph got its data from but it's not U-6 data.Jan. 2009 - 14% Feb. - 15% March - 15.6% April - 15.8% May - 16.4% June - 16.5% July - 16.4% Aug. - 16.8% Sept. - 17% Oct. - 17.4% Nov. - 17.2% Dec. - 17.3% Obama was almost a year on office before the U-6 unemployment began dropping. My data comes from the BLS. |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 14:24:38 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 14:19:16 2015. 2000 through 2008 includes the effect on the economy by 9-11 and the stock market crash. Is it any surprise employment dropped? |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 14:31:04 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Nilet on Sun Jul 5 19:53:45 2015. If you have a college degree and you work part time for minimum wage, you're still counted as "employed."That's counted as "unemployed" in the U6 unemployment rate. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 14:36:26 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 14:21:49 2015. I don't know where your graph got its data from but it's not U-6 data.It's net monthly change in private sector employment. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 15:12:28 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 14:24:38 2015. 2000 through 2008 includes the effect on the economy by 9-11 and the stock market crash. Is it any surprise employment dropped?Unemployment was already on the rise before 9/11, but that trend started reversing in late 2003. It began to escalate quickly again at the end of 2007. |
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Posted by Fred G on Tue Jul 7 15:27:25 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 11:33:55 2015. Exactly LOLyour pal, Fred |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 16:08:45 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 15:12:28 2015. The end of 2007 was the start of the stock market crash. |
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Posted by WayneJay on Tue Jul 7 16:44:23 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Fred G on Tue Jul 7 11:18:48 2015. Exactly, but how often is that ignored. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by WayneJay on Tue Jul 7 16:46:09 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 11:33:55 2015. Agreed:-). |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by WayneJay on Tue Jul 7 16:53:10 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 12:59:09 2015. I think no one would deny that the unemployment rate was still on an upward trajectory when Obama went into office. I also say that no reasonable person would expect it to suddenly change direction overnight. |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 18:58:54 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 14:21:49 2015. Obama was almost a year on office before the U-6 unemployment began dropping.Bush was only a few months in office before it started RISING. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 19:31:17 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by SMAZ on Tue Jul 7 18:58:54 2015. Ummm...ever hear of the Dot-Com crash? It began in March 2000 and in addition to wiping out the stock market, took its toll on the economy. That's what led to rising unemployment. |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 19:32:09 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by WayneJay on Tue Jul 7 16:53:10 2015. Unfortunately there are many subchatters who are not reasonable people. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 19:46:34 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 19:31:17 2015. It did little if anything since it was limited to one economic sector. Only fools that didn't diversify saw serious losses. The economy then still had strong fundamentals, and the government had a surplus. It wasn't until bush took power in 2001 that we saw confidence evaporate after tax cuts eliminated the surplus and the warmongering began, first with China, then after the events that fall....... |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 20:14:44 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 16:08:45 2015. The end of 2007 was the start of the stock market crash.Indeed, and like employment, it too has recovered significantly. Do you have doom and gloom explanations about how the stock market recovery is also a sign that Obama ruined the economy? |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 21:31:55 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 19:46:34 2015. Why must you opine on things you know nothing about?From March 2000 through the end of that year, the S&P 500 Index fell 19.4%. The index includes 500 leading companies; do you think they're all in the dot-com sector? The economy began losing strength in 2000, contrary to your uniformed opinion. Manufacturing’s downturn started in late summer of 2000 as businesses sharply reduced spending on machinery, computers, and other capital goods. Falling orders led factories to cut more than 1 million jobs from their payrolls. This retrenchment led to job losses in wholesale trade and transportation, and to a massive cutback in factories’ use of temporary help services. In the fourth quarter of 1999, employment had barely begun to recover from the losses associated with the 1998 Asian currency crisis. Even during that period, hiring was minimal, and by the third quarter of 2000 the job losses resumed. By late summer of 2000, U.S. automakers anticipated a decline in overall demand for new cars and light trucks. They responded by reducing both output and employment. The production cutbacks further affected second-tier suppliers such as auto-related manufacturing industries (automotive stampings and flat glass). Paper and allied products, like primary metals, suffered from a combination of falling demand from other domestic manufacturers and a worsening trade outlook, i.e., falling export demand. At the same time that the economic slowdown in the U.S. hurt domestic demand for container board for shipping, exports of paper and allied products also fell sharply. For producers of IT equipment (computers, semi-conductors, and communications equipment), orders dropped late in 2000, sparking layoffs. For the year, IT manufacturers reduced their ranks by 188,000 jobs, directly accounting for 15.6% of manufacturing’s job losses. I could go on but I proved my point...that you know nothing about this topic. |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 21:32:46 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Tue Jul 7 20:14:44 2015. We're not talking about today; we're talking about 2007 - 2008. |
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Posted by R2Chinatown on Tue Jul 7 21:34:38 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 21:31:55 2015. Question 1: It seems to be her nature. |
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 22:02:58 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 21:31:55 2015. I was running a thriving tech company and knew some of those who failed then personally. Don't try to tell me what I know and do not know. The tech bubble recession was mild and short lived, by the third quarter growth returned. It wasn't until after the election in 2001, when policies that had been working were abandoned, that the economy dove into stagnation followed by recession post 9/11, only to be briefly revived through a real estate bubble (funny how I remember Daddys time when so many homeowners mortgages' went underwater, is this some genetic thing....ruining homeownership?) around the 2004 election year. From there the bubble burst and ruined everyone. Another reason to NEVER vote republican. |
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Posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 22:21:34 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 21:32:46 2015. President Obama wasn't President then. |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 22:56:43 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 22:02:58 2015. Say what?It was the collapse of tech stocks in 2000 that lead to the 2001 recession. In one year the IT industries effectively reversed the net job gains of the prior 6 years. Capacity utilization fell from a May 2000 high of 88.8% to a historic low of 60%. Yet as fast as IT manufacturers cut output and payrolls, these cut-backs still lagged behind the plummeting demand for their products. The IT slump spread throughout and beyond manufacturing. Within manufacturing, the clearest impact was experienced in miscellaneous electrical equipment and supplies, which includes makers of magnetic and optical recording media, and in measuring and controlling devices. Employment in the former declined by 21,000, after having declined by 4,000 the previous year, while the latter eliminated 17,000 jobs. By third quarter growth returned? I think not. Between 2001 and 2008, Silicon Valley employment declined by about 17%, representing a loss of slightly more than 85,000 jobs. Following the 2001 economic downturn, high-tech industries in Silicon Valley recovered at a slower rate than in the rest of the country. As to why there was a tech bubble in the stock market...that's a different story. The real estate bubble was the result of both the Clinton and Bush administrations aggressively pursued the goal of expanding homeownership, so credit standards eroded. Lenders and the investment banks that securitized mortgages used rising home prices to justify loans to buyers with limited assets and income. The economy that Clinton handed to Bush in January 2001 was an economy that was being carried by an unsustainable bubble that, in fact, already was in the process of deflating at the time Bush took office. The S&P 500 was well below its 2000 peak and the NASDAQ was down by more than 40% on the day that Bush took office. This pretty much guaranteed a recession. |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Jul 7 23:21:24 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 22:56:43 2015. 85,000 against a population of 300 Million.
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Jul 7 23:22:34 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by bingbong on Tue Jul 7 22:21:34 2015. Dem facts ... :) |
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Posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 23:30:04 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Jul 7 23:21:24 2015. When you don't know the facts, post something stupid. Yup, you've got that one down to a science.Overall employment in the SV tech industries dropped 16.5% and some of the IT industry groups let go of as many as 34% of their employees. That's 86,137 out of 521,963 employees. |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Jul 7 23:45:05 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 23:30:04 2015. Or more accurately, when all you see is something stupid, grab that bad boy and accelerate the stupid to infinity and beyond. :)Do you somehow suspect that we weren't right smack dab in the middle of all that ourselves at the time? Pets.com DESERVED to eat dirt, along with the Wall Street idiots who asked the "entrepreneurs" at the table about their business plan and the response was "what's that?" and they gave them money ANYWAY? Privately held businesses like ours did just fine until the REAL economy tanked and people stopped buying stuff that actually worked and existed in real life. 
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Wed Jul 8 09:11:02 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 21:32:46 2015. We're not talking about today; we're talking about 2007 - 2008.But it continued dropping into February 2009. Also, you started this thread to point out that the drop in the unemployment rate is really indicative of the economy getting worse. Shouldn't other economic indicators suggest the same thing? |
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Posted by WayneJay on Wed Jul 8 09:18:18 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 19:32:09 2015. Agreed, agreed! |
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Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping |
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Posted by R2ChinaTown on Wed Jul 8 10:58:20 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Tue Jul 7 23:30:04 2015. Ah-yup |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Wed Jul 8 12:51:19 2015, in response to Re: Why the unemployment rate is dropping, posted by Dave on Mon Jul 6 18:57:21 2015. People in those age groups who are not counted as participating in the labor force are typically students, homemakers, and persons under the age of 64 who are retiredNo. Not these days. |
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