Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? (1260822) | |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Fred G on Wed Jan 28 09:41:23 2015, in response to Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 09:26:25 2015. As a staunch believer in Murphy's Law, I say the Mayor and Governor were correct in preparing for the worst. I think the burdens, including financial, that were placed on the city and state due to a "false alarm" were smaller than if it had been the other way round and everyone been caught with their pants down.The forecasters got the storm right, but their geography was off. Honestly, I think we're getting this winter storm thing down to a science and it's better than it used to be when we'd all get stuck on the way home from where we were earlier. Murphy's Law would say that if they did nothing the storm would have been a cataclysm with many deaths and complete disaster. your pal, Fred |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Dave on Wed Jan 28 09:42:17 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Fred G on Wed Jan 28 09:41:23 2015. IAWTP. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 09:49:12 2015, in response to Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 09:26:25 2015. They took an unprecedented step, closing the entire subway system for the first time (we are told). Including all the tunnel portions that could have been well kept running.When Gerald Ford was President, he made a big deal about a coming flu epidemic, urging everyone to get vaccinated. Well, the epidemic was a fizzle and he was broadly ridiculed for it for the rest of his administration, even after. Well, many years later my doctor told me that, epidemiologically speaking, Ford's medical advisers were right: the flu that year closely resembled the 1918 flu, which killed millions here and abroad. Whenever politicians react in an extreme fashion (and shutting down the region was extreme, justified or not) they must pray that they were right. What will be interesting is what the pols say the next time a HISTORIC STORM is predicted. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 09:51:39 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Fred G on Wed Jan 28 09:41:23 2015. They might be in better shape rhetorically if they hadn't portrayed the danger with phrases like "historic" and "possibly worst ever." |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by WayneJay on Wed Jan 28 09:54:53 2015, in response to Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 09:26:25 2015. I think they were absolutely right, and did not overreact in any way. I guess regardless of what happened... they'll always be a few morning morning quarterbacks.The facts you listed were indeed the facts, and the authorities prepared based upon that information. That's the best anyone can ask of the officials. Thankfully, some areas managed to dodge the bullet, but it's definitely better to be safe than sorry. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by WayneJay on Wed Jan 28 10:16:41 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 09:49:12 2015. I still think the politicians made the correct call in regards to this storm. They way I see it, they erred on the side of caution in preparing for a potentially disasterous storm. Either way there would've been people second-guessing the decisions that were made.Even shutting down transit systems was a wise choice IMO. I hear what you're saying regarding the tunnel portions of the subway, but again I think it made sense to close down the entire system. For one, I imagine it would have been a logisitical nightmare trying operate subway service on only the tunneled parts of the system. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 10:21:34 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Fred G on Wed Jan 28 09:41:23 2015. A lot of the fault seems to belong with the forecasters, including the non-sensationalist NWS. Evidently it became clear that the European model was way off by 6 PM on Monday, but the NWS didn't change its forecast till about 11 PM. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 10:26:17 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by WayneJay on Wed Jan 28 10:16:41 2015. For one, I imagine it would have been a logisitical nightmare trying operate subway service on only the tunneled parts of the system.That's happened many times, in many storms. And usually some outdoors lines were kept open, too. The major candidates for shutdown were obvious: the Sea Beach, Brighton, Rockaway, end of Canarsie, and so on. And it's being said the trains were being run anyway on many lines, but without passengers. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 10:26:27 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by WayneJay on Wed Jan 28 10:16:41 2015. For one, I imagine it would have been a logisitical nightmare trying operate subway service on only the tunneled parts of the system.NYCT has managed partial operation of the subway in numerous very heavy snowstorms since 1904. Yes, they would have been well advised to not do something stupid like stranding people on the Rockaway Line for 10 hours. But why couldn't they do what they've always done, maybe with a bit more caution? |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 10:29:04 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 10:26:27 2015. This is quite true. In fact, they used to step up service on some lines to help keep them open.But this was one storm. The politicians can puff out their chests on this one, but they're going to have more difficult decisions in the future. You ever heard about the boy who shouted wolf? |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 10:31:58 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 10:29:04 2015. You ever heard about the boy who shouted wolf?They'll cry wolf next time too. Watch for the next hurricane. Sandy was an incredible stroke of misfortune - the tides and the storm track were absolutley optimal. Chances are very high the next major hurricane won't hit so perfectly. An Irene is much more common than a Sandy. But they'll shut the subways anyway. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Fred G on Wed Jan 28 10:38:34 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 09:49:12 2015. What will be interesting is what the pols say the next time a HISTORIC STORM is predicted.I don't thing there's much wiggle room other than tone down the superlative language and substitute "better safe than sorry". your pal, Fred |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by r30a on Wed Jan 28 11:19:56 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 10:31:58 2015. Well there is a key difference here. Shutting down the system in the worst of hurricanes is a prudent move. If a hurricane ends upThis was not a hurricane. It doesn't matter if the predictions were equally off in the other direction. Shutting the subway is still a dumb thing to do in a blizzard. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by r30a on Wed Jan 28 11:21:43 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by WayneJay on Wed Jan 28 09:54:53 2015. Yes, it is better safe than sorry. What they did was not safe. They took away the safe option for people who would have been stranded otherwise. Thankfully the storm didn't materialize here, otherwise the boneheaded move to close the subway likely WOULD have killed people. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 11:41:42 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by r30a on Wed Jan 28 11:21:43 2015. That's another issue. It kind of reminds me what they say about potentially dangerous medications: "You use this medication when the potential for cure more than outweighs the potential side effects."Or something along those lines. Rather than use scare tactics like "Historic Storm"; "Worst Storm EVER" and schoolboy excuses like "Better Safe Than Sorry" it might be worthwhile if they explained what were the risks of keeping safe sections of the subways and els running vs. the advantages of shutting them down. Rendering an entire region immobile by fiat has its dangerous downsides. Think of this: On 9/11 thousands of people left Manhattan walking across the bridges. It is not inconceivable that terrorists might have planned to bomb those easy targets, resulting in additional catastrophic loss of life. Was it foolish to leave those bridges open? |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Terrapin Station on Wed Jan 28 12:35:53 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 09:51:39 2015. The NWS used the phrase "crippling and potentially historic". |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Wed Jan 28 12:38:04 2015, in response to Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 09:26:25 2015. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Wed Jan 28 12:40:56 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Fred G on Wed Jan 28 09:41:23 2015. Besides, many areas of LI and CT got hammered with 2 feet. It was actually wise to shut down the LIRR and MNCR, even if areas like mine got 6 inches, tops.I do believe that the travel ban in the Hudson Valley should have been lifted at 6 AM and the highways opened. It was clear by then that we were not getting hit hard and that some might have salvaged the work day. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 14:23:58 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 10:21:34 2015. NWS has suffered substantial budget cuts over the past ten years and has lost many of their best forecasters as well because they haven't seen a raise in as much time. The quality continues to suffer as a result. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 14:25:53 2015, in response to Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 09:26:25 2015. Nobody was chuckling about the preparations, oh reading-impaired one. I was chuckling over how three inches is the end of the world under ordinary circumstances down there. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Jan 28 14:43:26 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 14:25:53 2015. uhm, no, three inches is NOT the end of the world down here. We had more than 3 inches just last Saturday, did anything shut down?There's a huge difference between 3 inches and 24 inches. And again, with the sheer volume of vehicular traffic, once you get over a foot od snow, there's going to be issues. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Wed Jan 28 14:48:52 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 14:23:58 2015. Jorge Mario Bergoglio |
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Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Wed Jan 28 14:49:06 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 14:25:53 2015. Jorge Mario Bergoglio |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by mtk52983 on Wed Jan 28 15:13:08 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Wed Jan 28 14:49:06 2015. What does Pope Francis have to do with weather forecasts unless he is now a meteorologist on TV in his free time? |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 15:14:50 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by mtk52983 on Wed Jan 28 15:13:08 2015. If he's really infallible he'd be a great improvement on our current forecasters. :) |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 15:19:01 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by mtk52983 on Wed Jan 28 15:13:08 2015. Broken record is stuck in groove. Gotta bump the tone arm. :) |
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Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 15:29:49 2015, in response to Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 09:26:25 2015. Even if they had been right, the blowback would have been huge no matter what. As noted in the thread I have since moved over from SubChat to OT Chat, Wall Street is NOT going to forget this and the ripple effects could be felt in NATIONAL races where they might not have before it. |
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Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 15:32:17 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Fred G on Wed Jan 28 09:41:23 2015. The MTA had a plan in place that was quite extensive and Cuomo should have followed it. The blowback has been huge and there are many with long memories who will not forgive Cuomo for this, especially if this happens again with another nor'easter that could hit next week. |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 15:34:55 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Terrapin Station on Wed Jan 28 12:35:53 2015. Yes they did, however, the subways were built to HANDLE CRIPPLING STORM and DID for years.The MTA had a Plan V that was NOT on the books in 2010 in place. People who follow politics in other forms have noted that Cuomo was afraid of a bad item showing up in IOWA. |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 15:43:24 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 09:49:12 2015. I still think the Democratic Party heads will step in and make it clear to Cuomo that doing this again could make it impossible for the Democrats to regain control of the House and Senate in 2016. They saw how PO'ed Wall Street got over this and doing it again could make what already could be very negative ripple effects NATIONALLY in 2016 WORSE, even if Cuomo were proven right.There are many of us Democrats who follow politics very closely who truly understand how cutthroat politics really are and are quite concerned of ANYTHING that could have any negative effect on the economy as a whole long-term, especially with the what the GOP, backed in any cases by extremely wealthy interests looking out for themselves (and even more so with the Tea Party) and no one else wanting to potentially destroy the economy and wanting to unwind gains that have been made socially for many years. |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 15:58:55 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by r30a on Wed Jan 28 11:21:43 2015. And it may take that and a lawsuit against Cuomo personally for him to realize it UNLESS Wall Street Firms find a LEGAL way to block Cuomo OR the White House, concerned about 2016 intervenes and blocks Cuomo from doing so. |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 16:00:36 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 11:41:42 2015. Absolutely, and that's makes Cuomo's actions all the more foolish. |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Jan 28 16:15:40 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 15:58:55 2015. LOL! |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Jan 28 16:20:19 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed Jan 28 16:15:40 2015. :) |
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Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by GOlD_12tH on Wed Jan 28 16:21:14 2015, in response to Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 15:29:49 2015. Who gives a fuck about Wall St over this snow storm. |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 17:00:33 2015, in response to Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by GOlD_12tH on Wed Jan 28 16:21:14 2015. Us Democrats who worry about how ANYTHING that potentially could have an adverse affect on the Dems attempt at regaining the House and Senate in 2016 do:PO'ing Wall Street was a violation of Rule #1 in Politics and likely had the unintended consequence of costing the Democrats a race or two on a national scale in 2016 that potentially could prove to be THE DIFFERENCE in whether or not the GOP retains either or both legislative branches because Wall Street, as a direct result of being PO'ed by Cuomo's actions funds candidates that in some cases win races a Democrat might have won and/or knocked out a Democrat incumbent. THAT's why Cuomo's actions could have a negative ripple effect in races outside New York in 2016. In the eyes of many, the GOP wins then and there are going to be things that do that potentially will make things worse than what happened in 2008. That is what is driving a lot of this. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 17:05:04 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SLRT on Wed Jan 28 10:26:17 2015. Correct. |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 17:08:11 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by AlM on Wed Jan 28 10:31:58 2015. Cuomo was RIGHT to shut down the lines with Irene (lest we forget that did DIRECTLY HIT NYC, albeit as a Tropical Storm and NOT the Category 2 Hurricane that was feared) and Sandy. The threat of flooding makes it obvious the subways have to be shut down then.This was WAY different. The subways, especially underground were DESIGNED to handle big storms like this, and the MTA re-did their plans after the 2010 fiasco to avoid a repeat of that. Cuomo overreacted in my view out of fear it would hurt him politically but instead, he violated Rule #1 of politics and it could prove costly to the Democrats because of that. |
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Posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 17:48:22 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 14:25:53 2015. There you go, shit for brains, backpeddling your stupidity. Our east end did get the predicted 20-30". Islip airport had 24". No panic,Flintstone. We dealt with it. |
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Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Wed Jan 28 19:26:12 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Jan 28 15:19:01 2015. Jorge Mario Bergoglio |
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Posted by GOlD_12tH on Wed Jan 28 19:57:06 2015, in response to Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 17:00:33 2015. My god, get your head check already. |
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Posted by Elkeeper on Wed Jan 28 20:01:09 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Jan 28 16:20:19 2015. I often wonder what Wallyhorse and a few others actually do for a living? |
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Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Wed Jan 28 20:02:43 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Elkeeper on Wed Jan 28 20:01:09 2015. Some people are getting more and more out there. |
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Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Wed Jan 28 20:54:10 2015, in response to Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Train Dude on Wed Jan 28 09:26:25 2015. Here is the DC-based Capital Weather Gang's take on what happened. They always indicate the confidence level of their forecasts (effectively admitting when they don't know what will happen) and do a fairly good job of outlining boom and bust scenarios. Others may need to start doing the same. |
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Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by 3-9 on Wed Jan 28 21:16:07 2015, in response to Re: Did the Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by Wallyhorse on Wed Jan 28 17:00:33 2015. You do realize that Wall Street does a lot of their stuff electronically, right? A big reason why Lower Manhattan isn't as much the financial center as it used to be. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by Wallyhorse on Thu Jan 29 02:37:41 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Wed Jan 28 20:54:10 2015. That's one thing Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz has usually been upfront about when he does these forecast and reminds people of that. That's why he has been so well respected for so long. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by AlM on Thu Jan 29 03:30:21 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Wed Jan 28 20:54:10 2015. Instead of presenting the forecast as a range of possibilities, many outlets simply presented the worst-case scenario.Including the NWS itself, as the article makes clear. :( They could perfectly well have said 8" to 36", depending on the track. In the past they've often said the snow amount would depend on the track. It's not clear why they took leave of their senses this time. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Jan 29 03:41:11 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by AlM on Thu Jan 29 03:30:21 2015. Ratings. "Your weather experts."I understand that some are pissed off about me constantly comparing the way we do things up here as compared to down there, but at least our locals say "The models say ..." and then follow up by showing us several on air and then say "we'll get what we get, but here's what it's looking like right now." That doesn't seem to sell in the big leagues, because "positioning doubt" means weakness these days. At least our locals can be honest when they have some doubts about variations and they mention those. Quote: "It all depends on the actual track of the storm" are standard disclaimers up here. |
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Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast? |
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Posted by AlM on Thu Jan 29 03:49:00 2015, in response to Re: Did the Mayor & Governor Over-react To The Blizzard Forecast?, posted by SelkirkTMO on Thu Jan 29 03:41:11 2015. Quote: "It all depends on the actual track of the storm" are standard disclaimers up here.My point is that in many past storms it was standard down here too. |
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