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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sun Oct 12 13:05:16 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 12:36:26 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
What about the 250+ that hairy reid blocked for political reasons? Is hevthe only elected senator or just the only one with a legitimate opinion.

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(1233161)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sun Oct 12 13:05:20 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 12:36:26 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
What about the 250+ that hairy reid blocked for political reasons? Is hevthe only elected senator or just the only one with a legitimate opinion.

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(1233162)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 13:06:26 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 12:47:06 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
You're lying again. The House went for an Obamacare delay, not a defund.

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(1233163)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sun Oct 12 13:06:30 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 12:36:26 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
There were a few regarding elimination of reproductive rights, a "personhood " amendment and some voter oppression laws that would clearly be found unconstitutional in there, IIRC.

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 13:07:29 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 12:47:06 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
You're lying again. The House went for an Obamacare delay, not a defund.

And oh yes, Harry Reid did cause the shutdown.

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(1233165)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by bingbong on Sun Oct 12 13:10:15 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 13:07:29 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Wrong. They were told repeatedly NOT TO pull that defund ACA bullshit, yet they persisted. They were warned not to do that, they did, and what they sent up was rejected as promised for it.

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(1233167)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 13:19:29 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sun Oct 12 11:55:21 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The House has voted to repeal Obamacare a scant six times.

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(1233168)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 13:37:46 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sat Oct 11 13:48:11 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
It's hilarious how the left has switched to "shutdown blah blah blah" in the face of this.

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(1233174)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 14:23:20 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sun Oct 12 13:05:16 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
He's the Leader. He's entitled to set the calendar.

If God-forbid McConnell gets in as Leader, he will do the same.

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(1233179)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by train dude on Sun Oct 12 15:07:41 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 13:37:46 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Hilarious but predictable.

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(1233180)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 15:12:07 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sun Oct 12 15:07:41 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Of course, the lib media has no impetus to redact its lies due to lawlessness in the government they shill for.

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(1233181)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 15:12:23 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by train dude on Sun Oct 12 15:07:41 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Of course, the lib media has no impetus to redact retract its lies due to lawlessness in the government they shill for.

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(1233184)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 15:18:46 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 14:23:20 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Heh, "Leader" and capitalized too. So you believe in totalitarianism instead of representative government. Thanks for confirming that.

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(1233189)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by AlM on Sun Oct 12 15:54:37 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 15:18:46 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
It seems to be frequent usage to use capital letters for the term majority leader.

The cited reference uses both upper and lower case.


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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 16:11:00 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by AlM on Sun Oct 12 15:54:37 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Thank you. Leader is a title. To use "leader" instead would not indicate it was a formal job, instead of just a generic description.

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(1233194)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Oct 12 16:17:20 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 16:11:00 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
"Na-na-na-na-na-na-na-na Leader!"

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 12 16:20:50 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 15:12:07 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
LAWLESSNESS should be capitalized considering this administration's history.

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 16:23:33 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 15:18:46 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Yes, obviously I believe in returning to the glory days of the Der Fuhrer and Il Duce, especially the latter given my obvious fascist Italian name.

I guess it doesn't mater that those two guys adopted the word to cement their extra-constitutional statuses as "leader" of their entire country, while Reid got his "Leader" as part of his formal job title as democratically elected herder of Senate cats.

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 16:24:13 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 12 16:20:50 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Can you cite some specific examples?

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(1233200)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 12 16:30:56 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 16:24:13 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Yes I can

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(1233203)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 17:28:36 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 12 16:20:50 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Or at least put in bold.

Obama's self-comparisons to Lincoln run very thin. When was the last time Obama called upon the nation to fast and pray?

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(1233207)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 12 17:38:35 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 17:28:36 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I'd believe it more if he wore a stove pipe hat instead of his dunce cap.







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(1233211)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 17:45:39 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 12 16:30:56 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Good, I'm glad that makes you feel better.

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(1233214)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 17:47:41 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 17:28:36 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
When was the last time anyone called upon the nation to fast and pray?

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(1233217)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by AlM on Sun Oct 12 17:53:13 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 17:47:41 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
It appears to have been President Wilson in 1918.



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(1233218)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Oct 12 17:55:22 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Oct 12 17:28:36 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Why should Obama tell people to waste their time and health?

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Oct 12 18:06:40 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 17:47:41 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Does this count? :)





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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 18:19:52 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Oct 12 18:06:40 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Let's all pray, fast!

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(1233227)

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Sun Oct 12 18:26:39 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by italianstallion on Sun Oct 12 18:19:52 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d


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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Olog-hai on Mon Oct 13 00:57:41 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Train Dude on Sun Oct 12 17:38:35 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The "put y'all back in chains" rhetoric of Biden in 2012 comes to mind . . . the Dems have been working to do that to not just blacks but to everyone for the past half-century. (And this from a fellow who had to ask if he would wake up "normal" from his brain aneurysm surgery—not a thing to mock, but Biden himself did it.)

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Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Olog-hai on Mon Oct 20 21:16:43 2014, in response to WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 11 13:33:30 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Other ones are Five Thirty-Eight and LEO, 62% and 69% respectively.

WaPo "The Fix"

Republicans chances of winning the Senate keep getting better

By Chris Cillizza
October 20, 2014 at 9:28 AM
The likelihood of a Republican Senate takeover continues to increase with all three major election models giving the GOP at least a six in ten probability of winning the six seats the party needs to win take back control.

Two of the three models have moved in Republicans' direction over the past week. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver's model, gives Republicans a 62 percent chance at the majority, which is up from 58 percent last week, while LEO, the New York Times Senate model, now shows a 69 percent probability of a GOP win — up from 64 percent last week. (The Washington Post's Election Lab model show Republicans with a 94 percent chance at the majority last Monday and a 93 percent chance today.)

The trend lines in both the LEO and FiveThirtyEight models highlight movement over the past week toward Republicans — with a slight tick back toward Democrats in the last few days.

There are only four Senate races where all three models agree there remains real doubt about the outcome. (Worth noting: The Election Lab model, as I have noted before, is far more certain in all of its probabilities — Democratic and Republican — than either of the other two.) They are:
  1. Kansas: Election Lab (95 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (56 percent independent win), LEO (59 percent independent win)

  2. Iowa: Election Lab (87 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (65 percent GOP win), LEO (67 percent GOP win)

  3. Georgia: Election Lab (63 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (65 percent GOP win), LEO (63 percent GOP win)

  4. Colorado: Election Lab (83 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (69 percent GOP win), LEO (68 percent GOP win)
The most interesting of that quartet is Georgia where Democrat Michelle Nunn's chances against businessman David Perdue (R) have improved markedly over recent weeks — thanks in large part to revelations about Perdue's comments on outsourcing and polling that shows the open seat race very, very close. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee diverted several million dollars from Kentucky to Georgia last week, another sign of Nunn's increased competitiveness. The problem for Nunn (and Democrats more broadly) is that if she can't get to 50 percent on Nov. 4 — which looks unlikely given the presence of a third party candidate — there will be a runoff on Jan. 6. That runoff electorate will likely favor Perdue.

Iowa and Colorado continue to edge closer and closer to the Republican column. Last Monday both FiveThirtyEight and LEO gave Rep. Cory Gardner (R) a 57 percent chance of knocking off Sen. Mark Udall (D). Now FiveThirtyEight puts Gardner at a 69 percent probability of winning while LEO has him at 68 percent. Election Lab had Gardner at 80 percent last week and 83 percent today. In Iowa, LEO now puts Republican Joni Ernst's probability of winning at 67 percent, up from 57 percent a week ago. She has become slightly more likely to win in the FiveThirtyEight model (62 percent last week, 65 percent today) and Election Lab (84 percent to 87 percent).

Kansas remains the lone anomaly among the models — as LEO and FiveThirtyEight see independent candidate Greg Orman as a slight favorite while Election Lab feels confident the seat will remain in Republican hands. (A note on that: Election Lab's prediction is based on Orman's stated intent to caucus with whichever party hold the majority. Given that Republicans are heavily favored to do so in the EL model, the probability of Kansas staying Republican is based on both a Roberts or Orman win.)

As of today, all three models give Republicans a better than 75 percent chance of winning six Democratic seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Win only those — and hold Georgia — and Republicans have the majority even without Iowa or Colorado.


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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Olog-hai on Tue Oct 21 23:54:40 2014, in response to Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Olog-hai on Mon Oct 20 21:16:43 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
libs r mad bro

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by LuchAAA on Tue Oct 21 23:58:29 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Olog-hai on Tue Oct 21 23:54:40 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Well yeah. Part of the reason one vote Democrat is because you're mad.

It's an emotional vote.

That's why people have to secretly donate to the GOP. Libs will come after donors if they could.

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(1235290)

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Olog-hai on Wed Oct 22 00:09:15 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by LuchAAA on Tue Oct 21 23:58:29 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
AFAICS, people don't trust the GOP establishment to fund non-liberal candidates; funding individual candidates is way up.

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Train Dude on Wed Oct 22 00:18:52 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Olog-hai on Tue Oct 21 23:54:40 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Liberals are actually quite emotional and even more vengeful.

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Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate

Posted by Nilet on Wed Oct 22 00:48:54 2014, in response to Re: WaPo's electoral model gives GOP a 95% chance of retaking Senate, posted by Olog-hai on Sat Oct 11 19:14:53 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
So you admit that Republicans are conservative?

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Olog-hai on Wed Oct 22 01:07:44 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Train Dude on Wed Oct 22 00:18:52 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I just read an article outlining liberals' misanthropy on social media; they are very quick to "unfriend" (unfollow) someone who is not in lockstep with their views.

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Nilet on Wed Oct 22 01:15:53 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Olog-hai on Wed Oct 22 01:07:44 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
+10 irony. -20 self-awareness. Achievement unlocked: Projection Level 2

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Wed Oct 22 01:16:26 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Olog-hai on Wed Oct 22 01:07:44 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
So that means that you and Train Dude want to "friend" bingbong and I and go out ice skating? Wow. Thanks! :)

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Fred G on Wed Oct 22 07:51:47 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Olog-hai on Wed Oct 22 01:07:44 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I think it's more to shut off the nonstop parroting of FOX propaganda. That and the baby talk (Obummer, zerobama, etc). It's kind of like a song you get tired of hearing on the radio so you change the station when it comes on.

your pal,
Fred

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Fred G on Wed Oct 22 08:04:16 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Fred G on Wed Oct 22 07:51:47 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Footnote to my post: It's like OTChat where a constant stream of retardation becomes mental sandpaper and you like to shut it off. How often can you read an Olog post or a flood of Chicagomotorman posts without rolling your eyes semi-permanently in the back of your head? Not to mention other droolers like Streetcarman. I could go on but it would mean reliving the nightmare and I'm trying to have a good day :)

your pal,
Fred

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(1235305)

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by bingbong on Wed Oct 22 08:18:50 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Fred G on Wed Oct 22 08:04:16 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Yeppers. It's imossible to just stand there and watch people one thought of as conscious endorsing policy that you *know* leads to their personal destruction and worse that of others NOT signing on to the bullshit, be it their rights, economics, health, on and on....

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(1235306)

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by terRAPIN station on Wed Oct 22 08:44:53 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Fred G on Wed Oct 22 08:04:16 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Did you have to bring him up??? He's been absent for a while IIRC AFAIK IINM.

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(1235307)

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by Fred G on Wed Oct 22 08:49:24 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by terRAPIN station on Wed Oct 22 08:44:53 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Just don't say his name 3 times in front of a mirror LOL

your pal,
Fred

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(1235312)

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by terRAPIN station on Wed Oct 22 09:31:06 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by Fred G on Wed Oct 22 08:49:24 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
If the rumors are true, he'll be back near the end of the month to use up his allotted internet hours at the state psychiatric hospital and then he'll be back again at the beginning of next month to start using his new monthly allotment of internet hours.

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(1235313)

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Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now)

Posted by AlM on Wed Oct 22 09:54:05 2014, in response to Re: Other electoral models increase GOP Senate chances (WaPo at 93% now), posted by terRAPIN station on Wed Oct 22 09:31:06 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Actual observed events contradict Luch's hypothesis. But it was a clever thought at the time.



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