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The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 04:53:04 2014

fiogf49gjkf0d
Analysis here

Must have been a slow week for Dan Balz but the points seem valid to me nonetheless. Of course, I'd rather see the electoral college abolished, it served its purpose but a direct election by popular vote is probably what would serve the US best at this point.

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(1146983)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 05:13:20 2014, in response to The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 04:53:04 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
One problem facing the Dems in 2016 is that Obama is so divisive, it will be hard to get another candidate to get the big turnouts, especially minorities, like he did.

Virginia and Florida are two states where the Dems rely heavily on the minority turnout. To them, voting for Obama is a shoutout. Props. Without someone who looks like Obama in 2016, that segment will stay home and make it harder for the Dems to win.

In the days leading to the last election, The Obama's spent a lot of time on Miami, Charlotte, and DC(Virginia) hip-hop stations going for the flash-mob vote, and it worked.

The main thing the Dems have going for them is the ability to divide people by race and gender followed by education. If they get stuck with a white-male candidate, it won't be as easy as Obama made it look.

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(1146985)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by Fred G on Mon Jan 20 06:07:50 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 05:13:20 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Keep spouting those myths as they're music to my ears. The reality is that there are 2 kinds of voters now: Republicans and those who hate Republicans.

your pal,
Fred

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(1146986)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 06:09:38 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by Fred G on Mon Jan 20 06:07:50 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Did you see Heypaul's discovery of an old station?

What myth? What point in particular do you not agree with?

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(1146987)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:32:29 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 05:13:20 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And what does the GOP have going for it right now?

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(1146989)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 06:35:47 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:32:29 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Thanks for attacking. I though we could have a civil discussion.

They have the Christianist segment. The church-going, family-values voter. The gun-owning, Jesus fearing, country music, monster-truck fan.

I don't see the GOP winning in 2016. But I don't see the Dems having anyone as energizing as Obama. All I'm saying is it probably won't be as easy as Obama made it look.

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(1146990)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ClearAspect on Mon Jan 20 06:51:24 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 06:35:47 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Asking a question is not attacking. Stop being a pussy.

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(1146991)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:56:43 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 06:35:47 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And who is going to vote for the Christianist segment besides Christians?

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(1146992)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:56:57 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ClearAspect on Mon Jan 20 06:51:24 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
What? We agree about something???

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(1146993)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 06:59:15 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:56:43 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Well, this column talks mainly about swing states where, I think there is still a Christian population. A significant one. It's still a majority Christian nation.

But I voted NO to Florida Amendment 5. I support abortion. I'm a weird voter.

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(1146994)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ClearAspect on Mon Jan 20 07:06:13 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:56:57 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
It happens more often than you think. Especially recently.

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(1146995)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 07:07:59 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:56:57 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
But you and I agree much more.

Just that I pointed out how silly it is to attack Rockparkman and Olog-hai for saying "Nazi" but it's "Jewish comedy" when Seinfeld does it.

Other than that we do get along.

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(1146996)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:13:05 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ClearAspect on Mon Jan 20 07:06:13 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Well, the extreme left here looks sane compared to the Ologists on the extreme right.

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(1146997)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:14:07 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 07:07:59 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
RockParkMan and Olog aren't trying to be funny.

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(1146998)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:14:38 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:14:07 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And if they are trying, they are failing miserably.

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(1146999)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ClearAspect on Mon Jan 20 07:15:03 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:13:05 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The OT forums have gotten to the point where discussing is essentially pointless and Id get more out of drywall. Its absurd at this point

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(1147000)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 07:21:09 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:13:05 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
there are no Ologists.

He does not understand the value of abortion to society nor does he understand that sick days won't be used by low-wage workers in NYC because they all live in fear of losing their job.



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(1147001)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:31:28 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 07:21:09 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
He doesn't understand lots of things. The Ology of Terror is one of the greatest threads ever created here.

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(1147002)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 07:45:14 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 07:31:28 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
i think dand124 or SMAZZA started that thread.

dand124 use to post about cops but ignored the verdict of not guilty for the cops who beat a homeless man to death. so dand124 has dropped the ball on that.

SMAZZA will continue to attack Olog-hai.

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(1147003)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by mtk52983 on Mon Jan 20 07:51:15 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 05:13:20 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Northern Virginia is becoming increasingly Democrat. Look at how Ken Cuccinelli lost to Terry McAuliffe in the Governor's race despite the fact that he had won 57.51% of the vote 4 years earlier running for Attorney General. Even if you added Virginia and Florida to the states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012, the Republicans would only have 248 Electoral Votes. Finding the next 22 is increasingly difficult if the Republicans cannot carry Michigan, Ohio, or anything to the Northeast of Ohio. The Republicans would need to sweep Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa (as Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico have increasing Hispanic populations due to immigration, the Republicans stance on immigration overhaul is difficult to sell there) and the Republicans were unable to do that with Paul Ryan, a Representative from Wisconsin, as the VP nominee. The other issue the Republicans face in 2016 is that the first term Senators who rode in on the Tea Party wave in 2010 are up for re-election so the anti-Tea Party groups will be mobilizing strong for any challenger which would provide coattails for the Democrats

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(1147008)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 08:11:02 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by mtk52983 on Mon Jan 20 07:51:15 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Northern Virginia is becoming increasingly Democrat.

LOL. I know. You, young man, weren't around when WMATAGMO and myself had several lengthy talks about Fairfax County(the Brentwood/Central Islip of DC area) in the past.

SMAZZA thinks the GOP will lose Missouri soon.

I'm the one who has said you won't recognize this country in 20 years. You don't have to tell me.

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(1147009)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 08:22:31 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by mtk52983 on Mon Jan 20 07:51:15 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
In fact, everything in that column posted by WMATAGMO, we talked about here years ago.

I was saying, and ChrisR16 didn't like it, that the Latino explosion in Orlando would make Florida out of play for Romney. Another troll here argued against me though.



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(1147011)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by cortelyounext on Mon Jan 20 08:26:12 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 08:11:02 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The Governor of Virginia, the Honorable Terry McAuliffe, awash in his millions, remains the very definition of the stiff, mechanical, robotic, and Pavlovian political operative. When said individual, hereafter referred to as SI for purposes of this thread, was not appearing on every Sunday morning roundtable repeating each and every approved talking point and same old tired mantra du jour which means of the day SI was evidently at home studying countless hours of tape in order to copy William Jefferson Clinton's speech patterns and gestures.



My bad, wrong guy. Here is SI.


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(1147015)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 08:35:29 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by cortelyounext on Mon Jan 20 08:26:12 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Cuomo.

He'll still get the civil servant vote next time and does not have to give them a raise to get their vote.



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(1147020)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by cortelyounext on Mon Jan 20 08:44:47 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 08:35:29 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Selkirk hates him, calls him Prince Andrew. Selkirk is a Republican operative who intends to bring down the Prince.

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(1147025)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:05:54 2014, in response to The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 04:53:04 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And I suppose you believe that Hillary the hypocrite Clinton will be as good for the Jews and Israel as obama?

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(1147026)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:08:30 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 05:13:20 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I'm afraid that I have to awtlp.

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(1147027)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:10:02 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 06:32:29 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
That they are trying to be like democrats?

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(1147028)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:12:14 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 07:07:59 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And it's not funny when Seinfeld says it either.

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(1147029)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 09:15:13 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:05:54 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I wasn't aware she declared her candidacy yet.

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(1147030)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by AlM on Mon Jan 20 09:16:37 2014, in response to The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 04:53:04 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
One thing that few people note is that in this decade the Electoral College appears to be "gerrymandered" somewhat in favor of the Democrats. Obama won by 3% but he could have gotten 5% less of a margin in every single state and still won.



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(1147032)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 09:17:25 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 07:45:14 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Look again. Why do you always fail to give me credit?

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(1147033)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by AlM on Mon Jan 20 09:18:44 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 05:13:20 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
The Democrats can win very state they won in 2012 except FL, VA, and OH and they'd still win the election. They have to also lose CO, NH, or WI to lose the election.



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(1147035)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:21:59 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 09:15:13 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And it would be a miracle if she didn't.

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(1147036)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 09:23:53 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:05:54 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
If you want to vote for candidates exclusively based on how they treat Israel, you should move there and vote in their elections.

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(1147037)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:30:43 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 09:23:53 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
You as a Jew don't take that into consideration?

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(1147038)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 09:31:44 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 09:23:53 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
But his preferred Israeli party is banned from running...

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(1147039)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by AlM on Mon Jan 20 09:37:39 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 09:23:53 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I wish there were fewer one-issue voters in the US, but it doesn't really bother me. Note however that if a voter's issue is "What will this candidate do for African-Americans" CMM would call that voter a racist.


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(1147040)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 09:55:31 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:30:43 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Unlike you, it's not the only issue for me.

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(1147041)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:57:17 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 09:31:44 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
And I suppose you agree with it?

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(1147042)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 10:00:03 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by AlM on Mon Jan 20 09:37:39 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
No I wouldn't necessarily. But I suppose "What will this candidate do for white people" is racist?

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(1147043)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 10:01:13 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 09:55:31 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Me neither. It's one of many issues. It just happens to be near the top of the list.

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(1147044)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 10:06:02 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 10:00:03 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
White people are not a singular group.

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(1147045)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by bingbong on Mon Jan 20 10:06:27 2014, in response to The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 04:53:04 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
His points are extremely valid. The republicans will soon have a hard time, probably beginning next decade as apportionments change due to shifting state legislatures. I see AZ becoming more Democratic, as well as FL, NM and CO and VA is well on their way.

Despite this, I nope to never see the electoral college abandoned. It is the last bullwark against some really crazy person (and it should have kept bush out of office, had it not been for the SCOTUS deciding the election) getting into the highest office in the land. There is some serious wisdom to retaining it.

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(1147046)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 10:06:56 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 10:01:13 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Then why bring it up now?

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(1147047)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 10:07:50 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by bingbong on Mon Jan 20 10:06:27 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
It was the electoral college that got Bush elected in the first place!

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(1147048)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Mon Jan 20 10:08:25 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 09:57:17 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
I wouldn't vote for Kahane and his party even if they were allowed to run and if I had voting rights here. The fact they are banned here should send you a message about how extreme your POV is.

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(1147052)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by bingbong on Mon Jan 20 10:18:58 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Jan 20 05:13:20 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Wow you are so wrong about VA. They turned out and elected a white guy with an Irish-sounding name and a slew of other Democrats into their state offices.

You are seriously neglecting the voting power of women.

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(1147059)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Mon Jan 20 10:42:56 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 10:06:02 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Like hell we ain't!

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(1147061)

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Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

Posted by bingbong on Mon Jan 20 10:48:19 2014, in response to Re: The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016, posted by Spider-Pig on Mon Jan 20 10:07:50 2014.

fiogf49gjkf0d
Wrong. It was SCOTUS that handed FL to bush. Had they not, it could have easily, after a proper recount, gone to Gore.

What I would have liked to see, as a protest, enough electors going to Gore to elect him. Yes, they aren't ll require to vote according to their state's winner. That's the beauty of a final bulwark. They also would have expressed the will of the people, as Gore DID win the popular vote (for all you EC abolishers out there).

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