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| Re: Charles Krauthammer: Deterence with Iran Suceeding = Fantasy (983256) | |||
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Re: Charles Krauthammer: Deterence with Iran Suceeding = Fantasy |
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Posted by WillD on Tue Sep 4 13:19:08 2012, in response to Charles Krauthammer: Deterence with Iran Suceeding = Fantasy, posted by WMATAGMOAGH on Tue Sep 4 04:05:17 2012. I still believe the religious aspect is being played up by the Iranians for propaganda purposes, but that their proposed nuclear arsenal would not be pointed Israel's way, at least not initially. They may be fanatical, but they're not stupid. No matter what rhetoric comes out of their government, the guys at the top aren't going to be nearly as willing to sacrifice their country as their suicide bombers sacrifice themselves. They have to know that a nuclear strike against Israel, even an unsuccessful one, would bring about a massive retaliation from Israel, and would likely include a ruinous conventional strategic campaign by the US after the UN hangs them out to dry.Their Arab neighbors across the Gulf are much more lucrative targets for coercion to strengthen the Iranian position in the region. The Iranians can threaten them with virtual impunity as the only real threat of retaliation comes from the US (as well as France, Russia, and the UK), and that could well be tempered by religious or economic arguments. And it's a hell of a lot easier to pick a fight with their neighbors across the Gulf. Not only is it a lot closer, but Israel has a fully integrated air defense system for dealing with almost all varieties of threats from cruise missiles through ballistic missiles, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar all have many more holes in their air defense systems. We can likely be counted on to plug some of those holes by stationing Aegis cruisers and destroyers in the Gulf, but that support isn't likely to be permanent and will not be as effective as air defense systems being colocated with population centers. For the time being the Iranians cannot show their hand too early lest they risk their Arabian neighbors taking a much more overt action to keep Iran from emerging as a regional power. So they'll keep playing up the religious aspect while preparing weapons which are virtually useless against Israel. Their "ballistic missile" only has the range to reach Israel with an incredibly light payload, and it is highly unlikely their first generation nuclear warheads will weigh less than a ton. As such their nuclear arsenal will, at least initially, be composed of short range ballistic missiles better suited to hitting Riyadh than Tel Aviv. I'm not saying the Iranians won't strike Israel, but it'll be later rather than sooner. Nuking the Israelis with their first dozen bombs would accomplish nothing for them. But using their nuclear arsenal to reinforce their strategic position, possibly even precluding US involvement by controlling oil production in the neighboring Arabian states, makes their survival in a nuclear exchange much more likely. |
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