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| Re: Charles Krauthammer: Deterence with Iran Suceeding = Fantasy (983681) | |||
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Re: Charles Krauthammer: Deterence with Iran Suceeding = Fantasy |
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Posted by WillD on Wed Sep 5 04:34:23 2012, in response to Re: Charles Krauthammer: Deterence with Iran Suceeding = Fantasy, posted by mr mabstoa on Wed Sep 5 01:29:31 2012. I don't think the Russians are necessarily great allies with the Iranians. The Iranian nuclear power plant at Bushehr may be Russian, but that really reflects how desperate the Russians were for hard currency in the post-Soviet and 90s oil glut periods. There may have been some amusement on the Russian's part at tweaking our nose by helping the Iranians, but mostly it was a paycheck for their nuclear power groups. Today, with their oil exports propping them up the Russians aren't quite so quick to export their technology.And there's the small matter of Iran, Russia, and China all sharing the same backyard in Central Asia. The three nations may not share a single point where their borders converge, but there are plenty of potential proxies between them which they can fight over. A nuclear armed Iran which has emerged as a regional power (presumably after bringing the Arabian countries into line, dealing with Israel somehow, and keeping out or driving off the US) is a credible threat to the security of both Russia and China. It would only make sense for them to try to absorb a few of the -stans on religious grounds, something neither China or Russia would likely stand by and watch. Both Russia and China have recently given the appearance of refusing to sell their top of the line military equipment to the Iranians, embargo or no. The forging of the science pact with the North Koreans only seems to indicate an Iranian desire to avoid these restrictions and to gain access to reverse engineered North Korean copies (along with undoubtedly some help with bomb fabrication). I don't think it's right to say the Iranian nuclear program is only a threat to the Israelis and that dealing with it should be their unilateral decision. A nuclear Iran is a threat to everyone within a few hundred miles of their border for the next few years, and as their missile technology improves that could grow to thousands of miles. |
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