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| Re: I Am Not Panicking (1713904) | |||
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Re: I Am Not Panicking |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Apr 4 17:02:27 2020, in response to Re: I Am Not Panicking, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Sat Apr 4 15:51:37 2020. The basic problem is that the number of confirmed cases is not leveling off in the UK.This is an exponential model. In ancient times, before computers (BC), there was a fairly simple way to see whether an accumulation was exponential. Plot it on semi-log paper. If it's exponential, it will be a straight line. If the rate of increase is decreasing, the slope will decrease. If the virus is completely eradicated, the slope will be 0, indicating no new cases. Here's a link to a site that plots the day to day accumulation in the UK. The first graph shows the accumulated number of cases vs. date. Select the logarithmic scale. Compare the latest slope with that from March 15th. That's when Dr. Furgeson made his predictions. The fourth graph shows the accumulated number of deaths vs. date. It also has a logarithmic scale. It's also not showing any downturn. Compare that to South Korea. Check the number of cases on the log scale. Notice how the curve starts deviating from its initial straight line upward trajectory. That deviation isn't showing up yet in the UK data. |
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