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| Re: I Am Not Panicking (1713925) | |||
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Re: I Am Not Panicking |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Apr 4 18:54:01 2020, in response to Re: I Am Not Panicking, posted by Easy on Sat Apr 4 17:44:08 2020. Maybe my eyesight is bad, but the rate of increase of new cases does appear to be decreasing on the logarithmic scale.You don't have to use your eyesight. You can get the actual number by placing the cursor on the data. It reads 3/14 1,140 3/24 8,077 + 608.5% => 60.85% per day 4/3 38,163 + 372.5% => 37.25% per day That is a decrease but still out of control. Now let's take a look at South Korea Let's start at the initial linear period 2/18 31 2/22 436 +1306% => 327% per day 2/26 1261 +189.2% => 47.3% per day 3/1 3736 +196.3% => 49.1% per day 3/5 6284 +68.2% => 17.1% per day 3/9 7478 +19.0% => 4.7% per day 3/13 7979 +6.7% => 1.67% per day That shows percentage coming down. One way to visualize how well a curve is an exponential on semi-log paper is to put a ruler on it. You can use the edge of a card or paper. The UK curve is pretty straight from March 3rd to yesterday. Here's a link to a table that shows the day-to-day percentage change in NYC. Let's compare the results of NYC vs. South Korea from the 50% increase per day point. In the ROK, it decreased to 1.67% in 12 days. The 50% day was about March 17th. 12 days later, on March 29th it was brought down to 5.8%. South Korea was about 3 1/2 times more effective than NYC. |
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