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| Re: Read these three articles about cycling (324963) | |||
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Re: Read these three articles about cycling |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Mon Aug 14 23:21:04 2017, in response to Re: Read these three articles about cycling, posted by BrooklynBus on Mon Aug 14 22:22:58 2017. The way I extrapolated for the fifth year, 2015 was to take the four year average of 392 and divide it by four. I arrived at 98. I added the 98 to 392 and arrived at 490 average killed per year for the five year period. Then I compared 365 to 490. 490 is 34 percent higher than 365. How is that methodology incorrect?Let me explain. What do you think the 392 figure and your description of a "four year average" mean? If it's a per year average as you admit, then it's calculated by taking the sum of the yearly KSI incidents and dividing by the number of years. Given that 392 is a per year average, then the total number of KSI incidents over the 4 years is 4 x 392 or 1568. That's the number to which 25% should be added to get the 5 year total, as per your extrapolation. 25% of 1568 is 392 (surprise). The total over 5 years comes to 1960. The yearly average over the 5 year period becomes 1960/5 or 392 (surprise2). |
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