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Re: NJT Proposed fares/cuts - The official release

Posted by JAzumah on Sun Mar 7 12:05:54 2010, in response to NJT Proposed fares/cuts - The official release, posted by kcram3500 on Fri Mar 5 14:27:35 2010.

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So, I wander through the FAQ (to see if I can leanr something new) and I did. Here is the list of fare hikes and their percentages:

June 2007 - 9.6 percent
July 2005 - 11.5 percent
April 2002 - 10 percent
July 1990 - 9 percent
May 1989 - 12.5 percent
May 1988 - 9 percent
July 1986 - 10.6 percent
Sept. 1983 - 9 percent
July 1982 - 17.5 percent
July 1981 - 22 percent
July 1980 - 11 percent

NJT had eight fare hikes in ten years from 1980 to 1990. This explains why they weren't in a rush to raise fares in the 1990s. It is also noted that NJT had two mammoth fare hikes in 1981 and 1982 (22% and 17.5%, respectively) in the most serious downturn prior to this one. Our economic indictors show that today's downturn is substantially larger than 1981-1982 and it also shows our economy to be in a depression (not the Great Depression just yet).

Based on this information, I no longer believe the threat of a 25% fare hike to be empty talk. This HAS happened before. Every bit of that 25% fare hike could pass. NJT estimates a 2.5% ridership loss, but they are lying. Ridership systemwide will drop at least 10%, allowing them to "adjust" service at that time. If your route runs a reduced summer schedule, the summer schedule will become all year round. If your route runs a reduced winter schedule, it will not be increased as much this summer.

Now, envision what happens if a 20-25% fare increase goes through. Ridership will fall 10% and another 10-15% increase will be needed...next year. Of course, NJT does not have much of a choice.

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