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Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020

A survey of ten cities by a major operator of building security access systems shows that New York metro area office buidings using its systems had an occupancy rate of 13.1% last week, down from 16.9% a couple of weeks earlier. This compares to a national average of 25.1%. Dallas is the highest at 40.6%. All ten surveyed cities showed a decline since the prior survey.
Link.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by SLRT on Fri Nov 13 09:35:13 2020, in response to Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020.

Well, De Blasio and Cuomo are hardly promoting an idea that you can be safe in a New York City office. And pictures of boarded-up store fronts don't help either.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Easy on Fri Nov 13 11:06:33 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by SLRT on Fri Nov 13 09:35:13 2020.

This survey is at the metro level, not city, but the NYC metro offices are more centrally located than most places. Looking at this list, it appears that places where jobs tend to be located "downtown" (NC, DC, SF, Chicago) have less return than places where office jobs are located in more suburban areas (LA, Dallas, Houston). The exception is San Jose, which is largely suburban, but has the tech companies leading the way.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Easy on Fri Nov 13 11:07:37 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Easy on Fri Nov 13 11:06:33 2020.

^The "NC" was supposed to be NYC.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Fri Nov 13 11:10:12 2020, in response to Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020.

Thank those 2 morons.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Easy on Fri Nov 13 11:23:29 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Easy on Fri Nov 13 11:06:33 2020.

And to stay on topic, I wonder if that correlates with transit? Are LA, Houston, and Dallas seeing more riders return than NYC, DC, and Chicago?

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by ChicagoMotorman on Fri Nov 13 14:04:50 2020, in response to Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020.

Thank you democrats.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Joe V on Fri Nov 13 14:42:06 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Fri Nov 13 14:04:50 2020.

Very stupid response and shows you are too dense to understand the severity of the virus. Furthermore these are mostly PRIVATE SECTOR decisions.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Joe V on Fri Nov 13 15:05:26 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Easy on Fri Nov 13 11:06:33 2020.

At the Metlife (Pan Am) building for example, even 50% occupancy would require an inbound and an outbound rush hour to go on for FIVE hours each. Merrill Lynch with 450 employees on 4 floors has been all WFH since March.

3 floor office parks in highway sprawl is an entirely different matter.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 13 15:20:17 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Easy on Fri Nov 13 11:23:29 2020.

And to stay on topic, I wonder if that correlates with transit? Are LA, Houston, and Dallas seeing more riders return than NYC, DC, and Chicago?

I'm not sure, but it's noteworthy that NYC, DC and Chicago have long had a much higher percentage of transit users than the other three cities.


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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 13 16:43:40 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Joe V on Fri Nov 13 15:05:26 2020.

At the Metlife (Pan Am) building for example, even 50% occupancy would require an inbound and an outbound rush hour to go on for FIVE hours each. Merrill Lynch with 450 employees on 4 floors has been all WFH since March.

I'm sure the dangers of riding in a crowded elevator are extremely low.


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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 13 17:36:15 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 13 16:43:40 2020.

I'm sure the dangers of riding in a crowded elevator are extremely low.

Depends how good your mask is.

One in every 300 Americans is probably infectious at the current moment.




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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Joe V on Fri Nov 13 18:55:53 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 13 16:43:40 2020.

They did the simulation. An assumption was 4 people per elevator car, 1 person per corner.

Going up 50 floors with stops is plenty of time to get splashed by wet sneeze, and most people for some reason sneeze twice in a row.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Lou from Brooklyn on Sat Nov 14 08:37:51 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by BILLBKLYN on Fri Nov 13 11:10:12 2020.

Well if you can't have 10 people over you own home, how many are you allowed in an office?

I would love to see someone bring that order to court.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by AlM on Sat Nov 14 10:26:37 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Joe V on Fri Nov 13 18:55:53 2020.

Hopefully those wet sneezes are covered by a mask.

I would guess that long elevator rides are quite safe, say better than going to a bar without a mask, but worse than taking a quick trip to a supermarket where everyone is masked.



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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by AlM on Sat Nov 14 10:28:08 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by ChicagoMotorman on Fri Nov 13 14:04:50 2020.

One in every 300 NYC residents is dead due to covid. Would you like it to be several times that number?



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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Nov 14 11:47:38 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by AlM on Sat Nov 14 10:28:08 2020.

One in every 300 NYC residents is dead due to covid.

The vast majority of whom were old and sick.
For some reason, pointing out this fact is completely taboo, even though the statistics are out there. In today's Times there was a report on virus cases on college campuses. There have been more than 280,000 cases, but just 80 deaths, most of which were among college employees rather than students. That's a death rate of 0.03%. As of a couple months ago, the US military had 40,000 cases among people on active duty, with seven (not 70, or 700, but seven) deaths. That's a death rate of 0.0175%.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by randyo on Sat Nov 14 15:41:35 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Lou from Brooklyn on Sat Nov 14 08:37:51 2020.

It is functionally unenforceable. Without a specific search warrant, no public officer would be allowed into someone’s private home to check for occupancy. Regardless of Prince Andrew's fascistic desires, the laws enforcement agencies of the state have more important things to do then knock on every door in a given neighborhood to check for possible violations.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by randyo on Sat Nov 14 15:47:26 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by AlM on Sat Nov 14 10:28:08 2020.

The way I’ve heard it if a patient has a half dozen diseases one of which is covid even if covid was not even a remote cause of the death, the hospital or doctor is “required” to list covid as the cause of death. As as slightly facetious example I mention the possible case of a passenger who has covid getting struck and killed by a subway train and being removed in 3 separate body bags but the cause of death still listed as “covid."

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Dan on Sat Nov 14 16:13:18 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by randyo on Sat Nov 14 15:41:35 2020.

Can they look in your windows though?

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Dan on Sat Nov 14 16:16:59 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by AlM on Sat Nov 14 10:28:08 2020.

It's 1 in every 431 residents. 19445 deaths as of today in a population of 8,398,748.



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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Jackson Park B Train on Sat Nov 14 16:37:59 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Nov 14 11:47:38 2020.

from the LATimes as of 9:58 AM PST

1,017,222
confirmed cases
+1,370 today
+9,899 yesterday

18,221
deaths
+7 today
+77 yesterday

While I can't guarantee precision, these are the "official" stats. 18,221 deaths out of 1,017,222 is .0179125 thus a similar death rate. Certainly a tragedy in each case, but still a tiny fraction.

FWIW I lost a grandmother to the "Spanish Flu" in 1918; so far so good in the current generations.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Jackson Park B Train on Sat Nov 14 16:45:47 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by randyo on Sat Nov 14 15:47:26 2020.

Lest you think that sort of fraud is new, over 25 yrs ago, Medicaid tried pricing what it would pay hospitals based on diagnosis of the patients. Within 6 months software was being distributed which nudged the hospital to emphasize the highest remuneration diagnosis no matter what the instant medical complsaint was. And I think we all know that a large fraction of the "accidental" deaths from guns thought not to be loaded are in fact deliberate--many suicides--which the surtviving family members are NOT interested in having on record.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by AlM on Sat Nov 14 17:39:23 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by randyo on Sat Nov 14 15:47:26 2020.

This has been debunked dozens of times.

In April through June, NYC total deaths were way higher than the average April, May, and June of recent years.

In fact, the increase in deaths over "expected" deaths was more than the number of deaths attributed to covid.



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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by northshore on Sat Nov 14 19:00:42 2020, in response to Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020.

MBTA in Boston will soon be making drastic cuts of rail, subway and bus service due to low ridership

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by northshore on Sat Nov 14 19:00:42 2020, in response to Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020.

MBTA in Boston will soon be making drastic cuts of rail, subway and bus service due to low ridership

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Brightonr68 on Sat Nov 14 19:51:41 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by randyo on Sat Nov 14 15:47:26 2020.

The thing is that covid stresses the body systems so if you have other serious illnesses , the stress from covid causes you to die from the other illness . Chances are the person would have died from the other illness eventually .

Not saying covid is not serious . It is

Just saying the initial thought that if a healthy person got covid it was an instant death sentence is not true .. stories of personal trainers who died of covid who was a picture of health ended up being a person with undiagnosed serious illness .

The real lesson from this pandemic is that people need to get yearly physicals no matter there age . Lots of people walking around with unknown illnesses and others not following doctors orders who have known illnesses .



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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Elkeeper on Sat Nov 14 20:42:20 2020, in response to Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020.

Forget the politics and the BS and just face this hard fact- things are NOT going back to the way they were for at least a year. The COVID deniers and anti-vaccine people may drag this on for even longer.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Nov 14 23:24:57 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Elkeeper on Sat Nov 14 20:42:20 2020.

Returning everything to normal may take longer, but business leaders could get train ridership back up simply by ordering their workers back to the offices. Corporations are not democracies, if a CEO says "No more working from home!" the employees must comply if they want to keep working. And given the state of the job market even the most virus-fearing workers are not going to resist.
I'm actually surprised that more business leaders haven't done so already, as it's starkly apparent that working from home is an epic failure, what with poor productivity from socially isolated, depressed employees. Not to mention the way companies are paying huge rental amounts on empty offices under long-term leases.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Steamdriven on Sat Nov 14 23:30:41 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Brightonr68 on Sat Nov 14 19:51:41 2020.

That’s a great reality check.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by randyo on Sun Nov 15 00:24:40 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Dan on Sat Nov 14 16:13:18 2020.

That wouldn’t even be legal and from the outside, there would be no way to perform an accurate count anyhow.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by randyo on Sun Nov 15 00:32:26 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Nov 14 23:24:57 2020.

The problem with “ordering" employees back to work under these conditions is that if an employee returns to work and contracts covid, then that person might become disabled for an even longer period of time or even die which would probably cost the business more in the long run than leaving things as they are. Additionally, if an asymptomatic person returns to work, he/she could infect others causing an even greater impact on the operation of the business possibly prompting numbers of lawsuits that the company would not want to spend time or money defending against.

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Re: Not good for transit…? New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Nov 15 01:49:08 2020, in response to Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 12 23:45:26 2020.

What makes transit dependent on office occupancy and vice versa?

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Re: Not good for transit…? New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Spider-Pig on Sun Nov 15 02:21:35 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit…? New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Nov 15 01:49:08 2020.

You have no grasp of reality whatsoever.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 02:46:09 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by randyo on Sun Nov 15 00:32:26 2020.

The problem with “ordering" employees back to work under these conditions is that if an employee returns to work and contracts covid, then that person might become disabled for an even longer period of time or even die which would probably cost the business more in the long run than leaving things as they are. Additionally, if an asymptomatic person returns to work, he/she could infect others causing an even greater impact on the operation of the business possibly prompting numbers of lawsuits that the company would not want to spend time or money defending against.

Virus deaths are very heavily concentrated among people who are too old and/or sick to be working anywhere. Obviously there are exceptions, and employers can and should make provisions for employees who are at risk, or live with people who are at risk, allowing them to continue working from home. Most employees, however, can come into the office (and use transit to get there) safely.


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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Bill West on Sun Nov 15 03:32:50 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 02:46:09 2020.

Sorry Peter, not so. In August 2/3's of new case were people of working age. Link , the percentages for the age 20 to 59 blocks add to 67%.

Bill

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 09:20:38 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Bill West on Sun Nov 15 03:32:50 2020.

I know that working-age people often get virus, the thing is that they almost always have no or very minor symptoms, no worse than the ordinary flu. Serious cases and deaths are overwhelmingly concentrated among those too old/sick to work.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Sun Nov 15 13:04:31 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 09:20:38 2020.

Offices are the worst germ ridden places if you want to get anything beyond "minor" symptoms.

I also want to see the blood work of these people who got over it and call it a flu. Not to mention, wasn't it about 13.4% of people last I heard who have that 'flu' for more than 2-4 weeks?

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Re: Not good for transit…? New York has nation’s lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Olog-hai on Sun Nov 15 13:08:20 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit…? New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Nov 15 01:49:08 2020.

Wonder when someone will answer my question.

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Re: Not good for transit…? New York has nation’s lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 14:13:06 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit…? New York has nation’s lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Olog-hai on Sun Nov 15 13:08:20 2020.

Well, it seems fairly evident that transit use in the city, in terms of rush hour service to and from Manhattan, is not going to make any kind of significant recovery so long as the offices remain empty.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Bill West on Sun Nov 15 14:33:13 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Sun Nov 15 13:04:31 2020.

Then there are the survivors who seriously swear they never want to go through that again.

More basically, those who want to work do not have a right to hurt others by increasing the spread of a contagious disease. Look at any graph of daily new cases, the huge increases this fall are how many people not only hurt themselves by ignoring advice, they wrongfully hurt others. That's the key point, nobody has a right to be an unknowing carrier. They must either distance or mask. Those methods aren't perfect but they greatly reduce the multiplying effect of a contagion.

Bill

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by AlM on Sun Nov 15 16:22:56 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 02:46:09 2020.

Virus deaths are very heavily concentrated among people who are too old and/or sick to be working anywhere.

But many of the old and sick people live with people who are still working.

My wife has asthma and is retired. If you send me to the office and I get covid there, I come home and give it to my wife, who then dies. Plenty of other example where people live with parents, or have to take care of parents, etc.

I don't think you've solved the problem.



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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by AlM on Sun Nov 15 16:25:11 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Bill West on Sun Nov 15 14:33:13 2020.

Then there are the survivors who seriously swear they never want to go through that again.

And then there are the survivors who are permanently or at least long term disabled.



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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 16:50:40 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by AlM on Sun Nov 15 16:22:56 2020.

That's why companies that order their workers back to the office should allow exceptions for workers who live with hiigh-risk people, or of course are high-risk themselves. For the most part they'll have to administer this on the honor system, but given how miserable people are with working home I can't imagine more than a tiny number of fake claims.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by AlM on Sun Nov 15 17:31:28 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 15 16:50:40 2020.

OK, if they allow exceptions then I agree there is less risk in what you suggest.

It's not totally risk-free, however. A gets covid, and while asymptomatic gives it to B, who lives with high-risk individual C.

My company allows anyone who wants to, to come into the office, but doesn't require anyone to come in. It seems to be working well, but only about 20% want to come in. The rest are typically concerned about public transit.







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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by checkmatechamp13 on Mon Nov 16 00:25:02 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Nov 14 23:24:57 2020.

Bringing workers back into the office for the sole purpose of driving up transit ridership is stupid, pandemic or no pandemic. If the productivity is the same (or even increases) due to working from home, then there is no reason to stop something that is working, just to go back to "the way it was before". People don't need to have a supervisor breathing down their neck to perform their work effectively. I haven't seen my supervisor since March and we're both fine with that.

Peak hour transit service is the most expensive to provide anyway, and it's good that the transit agencies have a chance to cut back on it.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Peter Rosa on Mon Nov 16 01:41:07 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Mon Nov 16 00:25:02 2020.

It would be asking way too much of businesses to order workers back to the office for the purpose of helping transit. It's in the best interest of companies to bring them back because it makes far more sense. Working from home is sheer misery for most people, what with social isolation, the lack of a clear demarcation between work and not-work, and in many cases the inability of bosses to grasp the concept of business hours and their consequent assumption that working from home employees are always on duty. In turn, unhappy workers invariably become less productive. Add to that the fact that a company paying huge rents on empty offices under long-term leases, and working from home looks more and more like an unmitigated disaster.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by checkmatechamp13 on Mon Nov 16 08:08:01 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Mon Nov 16 01:41:07 2020.

Well then let the bosses and their employees sort it out. There are plenty of us who are fine with this arrangement. As for the leases, they can always downsize at the next opportunity if necessary.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by TUNNELRAT on Mon Nov 16 10:34:10 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by checkmatechamp13 on Mon Nov 16 08:08:01 2020.

.

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Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Mon Nov 16 10:34:48 2020, in response to Re: Not good for transit ... New York has nation's lowest office occupancy rate, posted by Peter Rosa on Mon Nov 16 01:41:07 2020.

Boses don't give a #### about transit, and they don't care if you have to commute for 3 hours.
They rented an office, and they're going to use it.


As I've heard once from an executive who didn't want people working from home anymore some years ago.

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