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| Re: R32 How long (825031) | |||
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Re: R32 How long |
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Posted by Widecab5 on Mon Aug 24 17:16:35 2009, in response to R32 How long, posted by 6 Train on Sun Aug 23 15:43:45 2009. The retirement rate at Jamaica is about one 10-car train (various types) per week.FWIW I Speculate as follows: On August 17 there were 16 trains of 60-footers; 81 trains of R-46's; and 42 trains of R-160's. The E needs 26 (all R-160). The F needs 45 (roughly 30 R-46 and 15 R-160). The G needs 12 4's (48 cars or 6 trains, all R-46). The R gets roughly 36 R-46's and 3 60-footers. The V gets roughly 4 R-46 trains and 9 60-footers. Assuming there is one new train accepted each week (as has been the case), there should be enough to replace all the 60-footers along about R-160 Train #53. Also assuming the R-46's stay maxed out and the 60-footers get squeezed out (in other words the spares get tightened), there would be ROUGHLY 9-11 weeks left for the R-32's and R-42's at Jamaica (the R-40 Mods appear a cinch to disappear by the end of August). That brings us to about the end of October. Again, assuming one new train per week beyond that (Trains #54 thru 78), and one corresponding R-46 move for each to the A and C, it would take ROUGHLY 18-20 weeks to accumulate enough R-46's to replace the Phase I R-32's. That appears to bring us ROUGHLY into March of 2010. So, the answer to the question would be...ROUGHLY...October 2009 for the R-32's at Jamaica and March of 2010 for the R-32's at 207 Street, ASSUMING the spare ratios are squeezed a little to accelerate the removal of older cars. Depending on when the Option I R-160A/Dash 1's begin to arrive at East New York, it's a guess that the MK R-42's on the J/Z will be around into the summer and fall of 2010. The 9943-9974 group will have CBTC which might make acceptance a tad longer to achieve, at least at first. We shall see! Regards, George Chiasson Jr. (Widecab5@aol.com) |
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