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| Re: Football fans don't take mass transit?! (1053457) | |||
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Re: Football fans don't take mass transit?! |
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Posted by Charles G on Fri Apr 8 16:03:41 2011, in response to Re: Football fans don't take mass transit?!, posted by Terrapin Station on Fri Apr 8 13:46:12 2011. Right, but when you say that half could arrive between 8 and 11 you then go on to assume that there will be a uniform distribution of arrivals during that time -- but that defies logic. Clearly more would arrive between 10 and 11 than would between 8 and 9.It's fair to say that arrivals between 11 and 1 are close to uniformly distributed. Between 8 and 11 let's assume something less uniform perhaps 1/6 of arrivals between 8 and 11 are between 8-9, 1/3 between 9-10 and 1/2 between 10-11. At the high end of your range -- 65% arriving more than 2 hours before game time -- then the arrival pattern would look like this: 8-9 --> 11% of cars 9-10 --> 22% of cars 10-11 --> 32% of cars 11-12 --> 17.5% of cars 12-1 --> 17.5% of cars Under such a scenario clearly peak traffic around the stadium would be between 10 and 11. Only at the lowest end of your range -- 40% arriving more than 2 hours before game time -- does the implied arrival pattern start to look anything like one might expect. 8-9 --> 7% of cars 9-10 --> 13% of cars 10-11 --> 20% of cars 11-12 --> 30% of cars 12-1 --> 30% of cars Yet even that pattern assumes that 20% of cars (and 20% of fans) are in the parking lot by 10 AM -- you've been there, do you think there are 15,000+ people in the parking lot at 10AM for a 1:00 start? I probably won't be back on before you've gone off for the Sabbath -- interesting discussion, but I don't think there is any way to reach a landing. I doubt there are any numbers published that we could use to refine estimate further. Once next season starts, you can count the cars for us -- right? CG |
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