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| Hurricane Earl (656919) | |
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| (656919) | |
Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 08:10:52 2010 Look at the 6-day track for Hurricane earl. It could visit the NYC area Friday afternoon or evening. It's a Category 2 right now in the Caribbean, and is expected to further strengthen as the week progresses. I was reading accounts of the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, and wondered, what effect would a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane (such as Earl) have on the NYC area if such a storm were to hit here?I get the overwhelming impression that low-lying areas of the city like the Rockaways and Coney Island, would become the domain of King Neptune, at least for a good while... |
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| (656922) | |
Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 08:59:19 2010, in response to Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 08:10:52 2010. You just beat me to it! Yes, the hurricane may visit the Northeast by Saturday, and it's expected to be a category 2 at the time. But, remember that the National Hurricane Center's track and intensity forecasts are fairly unreliable that many days out. (However, just as a personal hunch, I would say we're looking at a strong category 2 hurricane making landfall in Eastern CT-RI.) The point of landfall could be anywhere from North Carolina to Newfoundland.The maximum strength a hurricane could have this far north is only category 2, and maybe cat 3, because of the cold waters off the northeast coast. Even still, with the landfall so far east, NYC would be on the western side of the eye, which, owing to the hurricane's rotation is where you want to be. Wind, wave, and surge will all be moving offshore. In the City, likely the beach and Jamaica Bay would take a hit, and people in taller buildings (where the winds would be stronger) would see windows blown out. A few of the weaker houses might see roof damage. While the storm is in town, with 60-80 mph winds and driving rain it would be miserable for anyone outside. Subways would likely flood. The best bet would be to hunker down at home in a study building away from windows during the storm. Overall, the City should be fine. The beach houses in southern LI might not fare quite so well though. But again, it is too soon to tell exactly what this storm will do. But in any case I think everyone in the Northeast should be ready for the possibility of a major hurricane by the end of the week. |
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| (656924) | |
Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 09:23:18 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 08:59:19 2010. Those waters off NYC's beaches aren't all that cold this year...I took a swim a couple weeks ago in the ocean at Fire Island, and while the surf pounded the stuffing out of me, it was warm like bathwater! Likewise the surf off the Rockaways...the long hot summer has increased the water temperature commensurate with the air.As you correctly point out, a lot depends on the storm track. If the storm makes land at or just west of NYC, as a strong Cat 2 or even a Cat 3, it will be deep poodoo for us. I expect Earl to skirt the coast from southern NJ to eastern LI, then hit Cape Cod. It's going to be one of those things, when people jam supermarkets starting Thursday night. If we get a direct hit by a Cat 3 or higher, the devastation may well make Katrina look like a spring shower by comparison. |
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| (656925) | |
Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Dave on Mon Aug 30 09:28:42 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 09:23:18 2010. National Hurricane Center says the Duke could grow to a dangerous Category 4 storm later this week. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Charles G on Mon Aug 30 09:50:11 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 08:59:19 2010. While the cooler waters further north make Cat 4/5 hurricanes a rarity this far north there have been plenty of 2's and 3's over the years.It is important to recognize that for a storm to retain it's strength over cooler water, it will usually be a faster moving storm than usual. This increases the potential damage both at the point it makes landfall and further inland. |
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| (657057) | |
UPDATE: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 20:35:20 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 09:23:18 2010. The storm is now already a cat 4. The current forecast brings it close to category 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches that strength.This is all very bad for the Northeast -- the stronger the hurricane at peak strength, the stronger it will be upon arrival. Worse, the latest track is shifted further west (and that has been the trend with the forecasts). It looks like a Northeast landfall may be likely. Looking at the latest sea surface temperature chart, Atlantic waters are warm (≥ 27° C) right up the Jersey coast. With a fast moving storm, as Earl is expected to be then, the hurricane might indeed maintain cat 3 strength upon landfall. If the path is a westerly path that brings it into CT, LI or the City, likely there will be significant damage in coastal areas in NJ and LI. People should not wait until the end of the week to stock up supplies. Shopping should begin no later than Wednesday, as by then it will become clear if we will get a direct hit from the storm. |
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| (657060) | |
Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Aug 30 20:39:16 2010, in response to UPDATE: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 20:35:20 2010. Awesome. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by r33/r36 mainline on Mon Aug 30 20:46:27 2010, in response to Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 08:10:52 2010. It would be interesting to see how Mantthan namely, LM (Esp the WFC & Battery Park City as its built on landfill) and Midtown would hold up in an hurricane. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by monorail on Mon Aug 30 22:22:04 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 08:59:19 2010. PHOTO OP!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Charles G on Tue Aug 31 04:28:06 2010, in response to UPDATE: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 20:35:20 2010. It is still a relatively unlikely event that the NY area will feel anything other than strong surf.The most recent projection from NOAA shows only a 20% chance of NY experiencing Tropical Storm level winds and a 0% chance of Hurricane level winds from this event. They are still projecting that the storm will take the typical path of running parallel to the coast as it curves out into the ocean. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Aug 31 11:05:00 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by r33/r36 mainline on Mon Aug 30 20:46:27 2010. I worry more about the Rockaway flats. It's mostly low lying landfill and we haven't been hit with a really strong hurricane since the IND line opened. Google Hog Island to see what can happen to land like this. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Tue Aug 31 12:02:21 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Aug 31 11:05:00 2010. The example is the Marine Railway in Manhattan Beach. It used to extend a mile beyond what is now Kingsborough Community College. |
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| (657588) | |
Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by JayMan on Tue Aug 31 13:49:40 2010, in response to Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl, posted by Charles G on Tue Aug 31 04:28:06 2010. According to the latest path and the westward trend of the forecasts, I wouldn't be too sure. Things are a bit up in the air at this point and everyone should keep a watchful eye on this storm. |
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| (657591) | |
Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Catfish 44 on Tue Aug 31 13:58:08 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Aug 31 11:05:00 2010. Hurricane Donna in 1960 or 61 |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Aug 31 14:54:23 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Catfish 44 on Tue Aug 31 13:58:08 2010. Donna never exceeded Hurricane 1 status in the tri-state area. I worry more about a sustained, direct assault from the category 4 storm Katrina was. |
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Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Railman718 on Tue Aug 31 14:57:10 2010, in response to Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayMan on Tue Aug 31 13:49:40 2010. Actually the Models look the same to me from this morning from the NHC.. |
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Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Aug 31 15:29:51 2010, in response to Re: UPDATE: Hurricane Earl, posted by Charles G on Tue Aug 31 04:28:06 2010. If it does scoot closer to the city than it appears, that'll be OK. Heavy winds will be out of the north and the Hudson and East river might get cleaned up a bit as they get flushed out to sea. But it still looks like it's going to miss as far as the heavy duty stuff goes. Spending Labor Day in Boston might not be such a good idea tho' ... |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Aug 31 15:32:09 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Aug 31 14:54:23 2010. Donna was particularly bad for the city not so because of the wind, but because of the insane amount of water in it. NYC flooded rather substantially as a result, particularly Queens and Brooklyn. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Tue Aug 31 17:11:02 2010, in response to Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 08:10:52 2010. I get the overwhelming impression that low-lying areas of the city like the Rockaways and Coney Island, would become the domain of King Neptune, at least for a good while...So long as they didn't get dramatically scoured, the water would drain away as the storm passed. Unlike much of New Orleans, those areas are above sea level. |
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ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN US: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by 9 local on Tue Aug 31 17:13:25 2010, in response to Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 08:10:52 2010. The first US advisories have been issued for Hurricane Earl:A HURRICANE WATCH is in effect for the area between Surf City, NC and the NC/VA border including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for the area between Surf City, NC and Cape Fear, NC Interests from Virginia to New England should be watchful of this storm. |
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| (657692) | |
Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Aug 31 17:16:56 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Tue Aug 31 17:11:02 2010. Some of them just barely, and other places are slightly bowl-shaped. When that part of Long Island floods, it can get quite interesting. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by JayMan on Tue Aug 31 19:28:39 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Aug 31 14:54:23 2010. The Northeast will never experience a category 4 hurricane simply because the waters off the coast are too cold to sustain a storm of that strength. Even a category 3 is a long shot. Earl will likely be no stronger than a category 2, more likely cat. 1. That said, even a weaker hurricane can do significant damage, as did Hurricanes Gloria (1985) and Bob (1991). |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Tue Aug 31 21:48:11 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Charles G on Mon Aug 30 09:50:11 2010. those things are massive though. The feeder bands go for a thousand miles out at times. While the eye may not go over 80 or 90 degree waters to be a cat five, they retain so much tropical moisture that the ones that do break apart finally cause issues over in europe. |
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Re: ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN US: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by monorail on Tue Aug 31 22:06:31 2010, in response to ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN US: Hurricane Earl, posted by 9 local on Tue Aug 31 17:13:25 2010. PHOTO OP!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Wayne-MrSlantR40 on Tue Aug 31 23:11:05 2010, in response to Hurricane Earl, posted by JayZeeBMT on Mon Aug 30 08:10:52 2010. Is the CI yard at or below sea level?-w- |
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UPDATE (11PM) Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by JayMan on Tue Aug 31 23:20:59 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by JayMan on Mon Aug 30 08:59:19 2010. The storm is maintaining strength at 115 knots (~135 mph, category 4). The forecast track has not changed, it brings Earl close to the Carolina coast late Thursday/early Friday as a category 3, and then into the vicinity of the Northeast late Friday as a category 2. The forecast track has it headed to Cape Cod, but the error cone includes western LI on one side and Nova Scotia on the other. In any case, the wind field is large enough that areas far removed from the center will experience tropical storm or hurricane force winds (this is on top of the uncertainty in the track of the center itself). New England seems almost certain to be affected, while it's a bit more up in the air about NYC and NJ. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by Catfish 44 on Tue Aug 31 23:31:14 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Aug 31 14:54:23 2010. the bay and the ocean met in rockaway I dont care what category it was. what it was was a mess. if such a category 4 storm came through the ind through broad channel would be the least of our concern. |
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Re: Hurricane Earl |
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Posted by SelkirkTMO on Tue Aug 31 23:32:34 2010, in response to Re: Hurricane Earl, posted by Wayne-MrSlantR40 on Tue Aug 31 23:11:05 2010. Near ... it flooded every now and then when I was there ... |
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