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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 12:56:51 2008, in response to 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 00:47:07 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
That's interesting -- but only in a not particularly interesting way.

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(384300)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 13:00:43 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 00:55:05 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
This proves it's basically only the Urban Centers, with few exceptions that decide our elections

It proves no such thing. If you compare the similar map for 2004 you will see the exact same pattern holds. Yet the election result was the opposite.

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(384308)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 13:18:33 2008, in response to 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 00:47:07 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
One additional thought:

Did ANY big city other than Dallas go red? I see mid-size cities like Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Indianapolis, but nothing bigger than those (except Dallas).



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(384314)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:43:09 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 08:20:09 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Then that's no different than people saying "landslide", when MANY of the swing states only had Obama winning by a couple percent. It works both ways you know.

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(384316)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by PHXTUSbusfan on Fri Nov 14 13:47:10 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AMoreira81 on Fri Nov 14 01:05:34 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
I totally agree. If the Republican party could end all of the social conservative BS and go back to fiscal conservatism they'd be getting my support/vote.

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(384317)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:47:24 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 14 10:49:49 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Yes, one has to look at the demographics of the areas too.

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(384318)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 13:47:38 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:43:09 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Not sure what your point is.

I didn't like it when people said Reagan won by a landslide in 1980 and I don't like it when people say it now. But I'm not sure what that has to do with Obama getting much closer to winning 50% of the rural vote than Kerry did.



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(384319)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:49:13 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 13:47:38 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
50% of the rural vote? What is the actual number if I may ask?

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(384320)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:50:00 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 13:00:43 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Obama got more of the surrounding suburban areas to those urban centers than Kerry did.

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(384321)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:51:26 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 14 10:53:41 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
But a lot of those Katrina people wound up in Houston, but that still looks pretty red too. I don't know enough about where all those Katrina people went, or where most are to comment well though.

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(384323)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:54:32 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 13:18:33 2008.

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Most cities do tend to be blue though, exceptions usually are San Diego and some others. It was always traditionally red, because it being a military city, but there is also a lot of Hispanics there too, which may have had an effect. I don't know.

Salt Lake City is obvious of course.....

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 14:00:48 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:49:13 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
I googled "rural vote" Obama Kerry and got this:

http://www.dailyyonder.com/obama-closes-gap-rural-vote-wins-bigger-cities

Kerry 39.8% of rural vote, Obama 43%. And that obviously includes the band of Appalachia where Obama did worse.





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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 14:07:28 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:54:32 2008.

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Salt Lake City is obvious of course.....

Actually, not so obvious. They usually send a Democrat to the House.

I can't find hard numbers but do see an item that McCain "narrowly" won Salt Lake County.



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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 14 14:07:59 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:51:26 2008.

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But a lot of those Katrina people wound up in Houston, but that still looks pretty red too. I don't know enough about where all those Katrina people went, or where most are to comment well though.

Many Katrina refugees indeed ended up in Houston, but Houston is so much larger than even pre-Katrina New Orleans that their political impact was limited.

My LIRR/NYCT blog


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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 14:25:34 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Nov 14 01:12:51 2008.

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And view the "voting shifts" map display, it shows a dire future for the republican party. Arkansas and Tennessee are about all that's still trending GOP.

Only compared to 2004 or 2000. Drag the slider over to compare with 1996 or 1992, and it's a totally different story.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 14:31:42 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 01:05:45 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
The Containment Area for Relocated Yankees has overflowed! :-)

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(384336)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Nov 14 14:36:39 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Bob Andersen on Fri Nov 14 11:52:17 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Ow ow ow ow! :)



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(384337)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 14:39:33 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 14:25:34 2008.

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Drag the slider over to compare with 1996 or 1992, and it's a totally different story.

OK, 2008 vs. 1996.

What's become more red? NY, MA - states that are so blue that a bit more red gives the Republicans nothing. LA, AS, AK, TN, KY, WV, MO. They haven't been crucial to a Democratic victory in years even if many did go for Clinton.

What's become more blue is states that got pushed over the brink from red to blue: IN, VA, NC, CO.

The 2008 blue states are a coherent group. Socially liberal to moderate. Fiscally liberal to moderate. The 1996 blue states had that Carter/Clinton rural southern component that will be gone for a while.




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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 14:52:33 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Nov 14 04:25:12 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
You wanna mess with the BAMBI vote? THEY vote early, and often! :-\

Nah, they're just bitter. They cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment...

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(384340)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 14:57:07 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AMoreira81 on Fri Nov 14 00:48:30 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
I wonder if there was a much higher turnout in the Chicagoland part of Indiana than the rest of the state...

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(384345)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Dand124 on Fri Nov 14 15:08:51 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 11:12:13 2008.

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This was the third straight election that those states have been trending red the major swing was between 1996 and2000. In some cases (West Virginia) I think that the democrats environmental policy is a factor, I’m not sure what’s going on in Arkansas and Tennessee.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 16:06:56 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 13:18:33 2008.

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There's lots of cities that must have went red. It appears Houston did. It also appears that cities like Memphis, St Louis, Indianapolis, even Ohio looks very red, but I would perhaps assume it's the cities in Ohio that made it go over to blue, as most of the state looks red, as well as Indiana, but again, Obama only won those states by about 1 or 2%, the same with Missouri. It was 50/50 there just about, so Kansas City may have also been red.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 16:11:31 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Dand124 on Fri Nov 14 15:08:51 2008.

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I think Arkansas may have been more blue when Clinton was running, the same reason Arizona was so red this time.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 16:23:23 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 13:50:00 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Obama got more of the surrounding suburban areas to those urban centers than Kerry did.

Then perhaps instead of this -- "This proves it's basically only the Urban Centers, with few exceptions that decide our elections" -- you meant this:

This proves it's basically only the surrounding suburban areas, with few exceptions that decide our elections.

I still disagree with that statement, however.





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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 16:25:11 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 14:07:28 2008.

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Actually, not so obvious. They usually send a Democrat to the House.


That's like saying NYC going blue isn't obvious because they usually elect a Republican mayor... Local politics often doesn't have anything to do with National politics.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 16:27:16 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 16:06:56 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Cincinnati may be red.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 16:27:26 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 16:06:56 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
There's lots of cities that must have went red. It appears Houston did. It also appears that cities like Memphis, St Louis, Indianapolis,

Your map has blue spots right where Houston and St. Louis are. Memphis and Indianapolis, I agree.





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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by The Port of Authority on Fri Nov 14 16:28:19 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 16:27:16 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
It's hard to tell -- there's a county that appears darker than the others in southwestern Ohio that could, very well, be blue. We need a larger version of this map.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 16:31:30 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 16:25:11 2008.

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Actually, not so obvious. They usually send a Democrat to the House.


That's like saying NYC going blue isn't obvious because they usually elect a Republican mayor... Local politics often doesn't have anything to do with National politics.

OK, fine, I used a less than perfect justification. But given enough time I could demonstrate that Salt Lake City votes fairly Democratic. The entire rest of the state, except for a few coal miners around Price and the reservations in the southeast, is SO conservative that it always outweighs Salt Lake.





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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Dand124 on Fri Nov 14 16:44:32 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 14 12:46:20 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
George Wallace got 34% of the vote in Tennessee so there certainly was some racism there. By contrast Wallace got 9% in West Virginia so I don’t think the democrats problems there are because of race.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Nov 14 16:50:26 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 14:52:33 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Heh.



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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by salaamallah@hotmail.com on Fri Nov 14 16:51:32 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Nov 14 16:50:26 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
lol
lamo
rofl

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(384376)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 16:59:39 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by The Port of Authority on Fri Nov 14 16:28:19 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
It's hard to tell -- there's a county that appears darker than the others in southwestern Ohio that could, very well, be blue.

Correct. Hamilton County voted for Obama by 52% to 47%.

We need a larger version of this map.

Check out Faux News' Interactive Map. Click on the states to see the counties.

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(384378)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 17:09:47 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 16:27:26 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
"There's lots of cities that must have went red. It appears Houston did. It also appears that cities like Memphis, St Louis, Indianapolis,"

Memphis and Indianapolis, I agree.


Sorry, but that's not true. Shelby Co, TN: Obama 63/35. Marion Co, IN: Obama 64/35.

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(384381)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 17:18:42 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 17:09:47 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
OK, those tiny blue spots on the map. Why can't every county be the size of San Bernardino County?



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(384382)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Parkchester (East 177th St) on Fri Nov 14 17:22:34 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AMoreira81 on Fri Nov 14 00:56:47 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Well have to wait an see. The next census count takes place in two years, and depending on how the numbers break down there could be an effect on the 2012 election (in terms of both how congressional districts are drawn and, more importantly, how electoral votes are allocated.)

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(384384)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 17:27:04 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 17:18:42 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Why can't every county be the size of San Bernardino County?

Then you'd get more Fort Waynes.

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(384385)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 17:28:19 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Parkchester (East 177th St) on Fri Nov 14 17:22:34 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Do the current estimates suggest any such thing?

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(384388)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Nov 14 17:49:46 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Nov 14 03:23:30 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
The cartogrammic America is so HUNG!

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(384390)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 17:51:38 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 16:31:30 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
I understand what you're saying.


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(384391)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 17:54:00 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by AMoreira81 on Fri Nov 14 00:56:47 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Do you think only Republicans attempt to gerrymander congressional districts?

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(384393)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by SelkirkTMO on Fri Nov 14 17:55:44 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Nov 14 17:49:46 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Looks like roadkill to me. :)

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(384397)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 14 18:06:34 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 17:54:00 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Do you think only Republicans attempt to gerrymander congressional districts?

Democrats are so undisciplined that they're trying to gerrymander each other out of office instead of ganging up on the Republicans. :)

Examples (not literally gerrymandering, but lack of discipline):

NY State Senate, Jan 1965.
NY State Senate, Jan 2009.




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(384399)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Nov 14 18:08:51 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 14 10:49:49 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
The "smile" appeals to follow the fall line where all the cities are located.

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(384402)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 18:10:43 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Charles G on Fri Nov 14 16:23:23 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
No, because the cities usually do go blue, most of the time.

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(384403)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by MJF on Fri Nov 14 18:11:01 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by LuchAAA on Fri Nov 14 10:14:01 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Bakersfield is in Kern County.

Isn't Kern County basically rural with small towns? Many farm workers who are predominantly Hispanic?

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(384404)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by MJF on Fri Nov 14 18:13:14 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Fred G on Fri Nov 14 04:30:20 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
A deer. A female deer.

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(384405)

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Fri Nov 14 18:13:31 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Spider-Pig on Fri Nov 14 17:49:46 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
It may even be circumised.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by MJF on Fri Nov 14 18:16:56 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by Kew Gardens Teleport on Fri Nov 14 14:31:42 2008.

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fiogf49gjkf0d
Heh. Cary, N.C. A recently retired co-worker just moved down there from Port Jefferson.

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Re: 2008 Election Map by County

Posted by LuchAAA on Fri Nov 14 18:17:00 2008, in response to Re: 2008 Election Map by County, posted by MJF on Fri Nov 14 18:11:01 2008.

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Yes. Huge Latino population. Maybe 50% or more. I've been there before, and loved the town. Great Lucha Libre town.

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