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| Clinton 323, Trump 215 (1401964) | |
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| (1401964) | |
Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016 Link |
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| (1401966) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by MTK52983 on Tue Nov 8 06:43:06 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. Florida and North Carolina appear the most questionable of your map. That being said, if you are correct east of the Mississippi, I do not see a reasonable way that Donald Trump gets the presidency. |
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| (1401968) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by Easy on Tue Nov 8 08:13:43 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. I predict Clinton wins but closer than that. Under 300. |
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| (1401969) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 08:22:36 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by MTK52983 on Tue Nov 8 06:43:06 2016. FL and NC are ultra-questionable based on polls. But there is also an indication of very heavy early Hispanic voting in FL. Trump is really good at getting people out to the polls. |
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| (1401970) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by R30A on Tue Nov 8 08:30:43 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. I think that is the most obvious map at this point, although I see Clinton as having the upside. I think AZ and OH are the two most likely to flip from this map. |
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| (1401980) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Tue Nov 8 09:19:44 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. They also predicted Cleveland to win the World Series. |
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| (1401985) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 09:28:38 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by Olog-hai on Tue Nov 8 09:19:44 2016. They said Cleveland had an 85% chance of winning the series. That was a correct prediction.Similarly, flip a coin three times and sometimes it really does come up heads all 3 times. |
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| (1401986) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 09:35:41 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 09:28:38 2016. PS. I didn't say that 538 predicts that Clinton will win exactly those states. All they are saying is that they believe the probability of Clinton winning each of those states is greater than 50%. Some of those probabilities are as low as 55%. |
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| (1401992) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by FYBklyn1959 on Tue Nov 8 10:00:45 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 08:22:36 2016. Even if Hillary loses both FL and NC, she still wins 279-259. The key is to hold PA, if Trumps gets FL, NC and PA, he wins. Should be an interesting night. |
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| (1401994) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 10:06:51 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by FYBklyn1959 on Tue Nov 8 10:00:45 2016. Even if Hillary loses both FL and NC, she still wins 279-259.And further she can also lose ME-2 and either NV or NH, but not both. |
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| (1401995) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Tue Nov 8 10:09:09 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 10:06:51 2016. Remember that 269-269 is a Trump victory. Although it may still lead to a Kaine Vice Presidency. Given the evidence that Trump intends to let his VP run the country, that could be interesting. Interesting like experiencing World War III would be interesting. |
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| (1402001) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Nov 8 10:21:14 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by FYBklyn1959 on Tue Nov 8 10:00:45 2016. He doesn't need PA to win, but yes, it would be the state that decides it if he wins FL and NC. |
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| (1402003) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Nov 8 10:23:08 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by Spider-Pig on Tue Nov 8 10:09:09 2016. Curious, how would Kaine be VP. I don't know how that works. Some of the electoral college maps i was playing with led to 269 269. |
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| (1402006) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 10:25:15 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by Spider-Pig on Tue Nov 8 10:09:09 2016. Right. But 269-269 is very unlikely based on current polling.If Trump gets NH, he'll probably also get ME-2 and have 270 votes. On the other hand, we do have this possibility, if McMullin wins Utah: |
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| (1402007) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Tue Nov 8 10:25:44 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Nov 8 10:23:08 2016. The Senate would choose the VP. If Democrats take the Senate they would choose Kaine. |
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| (1402009) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Nov 8 10:30:47 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by Spider-Pig on Tue Nov 8 10:25:44 2016. Ah, I see. Yeah, the senate is very close too. I heard NH and NCarolina willl probably decide that. |
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| (1402011) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Nov 8 10:31:47 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 10:25:15 2016. Interesting, but in that case, if Trump gets Utah, he has 270. |
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| (1402013) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 10:35:07 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Tue Nov 8 10:31:47 2016. Yes. The second map, but with Trump getting UT, is one of his most likely paths to winning. |
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| (1402024) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by Mitch45 on Tue Nov 8 11:43:53 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. yay |
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| (1402058) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Nov 8 13:16:45 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 10:06:51 2016. She might win AZ.TonyG is voting for her too. |
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| (1402060) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by SMAZ on Tue Nov 8 13:20:26 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. AlMoreira. |
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| (1402062) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 13:22:24 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by SMAZ on Tue Nov 8 13:16:45 2016. She might also win Ohio. Or not. |
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| (1402317) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by G1Ravage on Wed Nov 9 05:43:10 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. This was a little off, no? |
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| (1402326) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Nov 9 07:08:36 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by G1Ravage on Wed Nov 9 05:43:10 2016. Yes. |
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| (1402855) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by SLRT on Thu Nov 10 12:43:29 2016, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. This is a good time to revisit this prognostication because it explains with a few mouse clicks why Trump is now the President-Elect and how Hillary and the Democrats blew it.Their strategy shrugged off the traditional Democratic Party working class and put them in her Basket of Deplorables. Those deplorables supplied Trump's margin in 3 states that were expected to go to Hillary: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, all blue on this map. Hillary threw them out so as not to irritate other Democrat interest groups. And Trump caught them. |
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| (1402857) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Thu Nov 10 12:45:23 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by SLRT on Thu Nov 10 12:43:29 2016. The Democratic Party always regarded their "working class" as their minion slaves. It came back to bite them. |
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| (1402883) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by orange blossom special on Thu Nov 10 13:11:48 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by Olog-hai on Thu Nov 10 12:45:23 2016. Big gov't hollowed out the working class. Kinda hard to have them slaves when they all vanish. |
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| (1402885) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Nov 10 13:12:20 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by SLRT on Thu Nov 10 12:43:29 2016. Correct. And it's not just her. The entire Democratic party has been moving away from the working class, blue collar people, and becoming the white, white collar elitist party, while the Republican party has beeen becoming the party of the blue collar working class. Of course, the Blacks are stuck in the middle, with Republicans ignoring them, and the Democrats using, exploiting, and taking them for granted so they have a for granted voter base. They tried that with the Hispanics too, but they actually voted about 35% for Trump so that backfired, especially in a state like Florida. |
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| (1402891) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by SLRT on Thu Nov 10 13:19:59 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Nov 10 13:12:20 2016. If Trump does as he promised for the Black working class, and it works, you say see a lot more Black people abandoning the Democratic Party next time.People would rather have a pay check than a gummint check. |
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| (1402895) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Nov 10 13:25:12 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by SLRT on Thu Nov 10 13:19:59 2016. Yes. If The Republicans are smart, and learn from their mistake, they will contimue welcoming the working class. And of course that includes Blacks. The Democrats Status quo, unless they learn from their mistakes.As for Hispanics, if they went only 65% for Hillary, and about 35% went for Trump, imagine if Trump didn't have the stigma/reputation* of hating Hispanics. A "regular" candidate may have gotten even more of the Hispanic vote. Trump go 35% of the Hispanics on just being Trump. *some of it manufactured through talking points, some real, some percieved |
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| (1402908) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Thu Nov 10 13:37:27 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Thu Nov 10 13:25:12 2016. If The Republicans are smart, and learn from their mistake, they will contimue welcoming the working class.But large portions of their platform are hostile to the working class. So they either need to successfully continue their deceptions (which have been very effective to date) or they need to change their platform. |
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| (1402966) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by SLRT on Thu Nov 10 14:57:54 2016, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Thu Nov 10 13:37:27 2016. But Trump won't feel that he has to follow the GOP platform. In fact, presidents rarely follow their party's platform, once the election is over. |
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| (2028955) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Mon Nov 3 22:03:03 2025, in response to Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 8 05:45:10 2016. LOL! |
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| (2028985) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by TRAIN DUDE on Tue Nov 4 09:04:40 2025, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by Olog-hai on Mon Nov 3 22:03:03 2025. Seens that a decade later and his perspective is no better. Wishful over logic |
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| (2028991) | |
Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215 |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 4 10:31:16 2025, in response to Re: Clinton 323, Trump 215, posted by Olog-hai on Mon Nov 3 22:03:03 2025. That seems to have been ABCs prediction. :(And I'm not laughing. |
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